MovieManifesto

Well that didn’t quite go as planned.

My predictions for this year’s Oscar nominations hit on just 50 out of 69 picks, good for a rate of 72%. That’s a rather precipitous decline from my 91% mark a year ago (when I only predicted eight categories rather than 13). Nevertheless, this year’s slate of nominees has me less frustrated than nonplussed. As it turns out, I overrated the appeal of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (which is a shame, because it’s a good movie) and underrated the heft of War Horse (which is heartening, because it’s a great movie). I paid a bit too much devotion to guild awards, from which the voters strayed liberally (with the marked exception of the Screen Actors’ Guild). And I was absolutely blindsided by one of the Best Picture selections.

But, aside from a pair of unforgivable omissions in the supporting actor and actress categories, I’m relatively content with this year’s Oscar nominees. Sure, there’s too much The Tree of Life and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and not enough Drive or Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 for my liking, but no individual is ever going to be wholly satisfied with the choices of a collective. Perhaps it’s because my hopes weren’t all that high to begin with – I’ve been resigned that many of my favorite films of 2011 would fail to synchronize with the Academy’s choices for some time – but the results are more eyebrow-raising than appalling. And if nothing else, this year’s Oscars should raise the profile for a handful of well-made, little-seen movies. So that’s something.

Now let’s get to where I fucked up. (Incorrect predictions are in red.) Read More

The Manifesto’s dynasty is about to end.

O.K., to call it a “dynasty” is a bit excessive. Yes, my utter dominance in predicting the recent Oscar nominations has undoubtedly been awe-inspiring to pundits everywhere, but I’ve only been forecasting the actual nominations for two years (I’ve been officially predicting winners – often badly – for 10); it’s not as if I’m rivaling Bill Russell’s Celtics for championship durability here. Still, my success made me feel invincible, and I figured I’d glide off into the sunset and spend the rest of my days reclining luxuriously on the beach while sipping mojitos like Kathleen Turner in Body Heat. Then things got complicated.

Alright, so we all know by now that two years ago, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences – in its infinite wisdom – expanded its list of Best Picture nominations from five to 10 in an effort to broaden its appeal to a mass audience. Though that maneuver predictably incited a firestorm of controversy among purists about the quality of the films nominated (“Dear God, we’re watering down the Oscars!”), it didn’t make the actual prediction business that much more difficult, as evidenced by my 10-for-10 showing a year ago.

This year, however, the Academy has added a new wrinkle (possibly as a result of Academy president Tom Sherak waking up one day and muttering to himself, “Shit, did we really nominate The Blind Side for Best Picture?”). Rather than mandating exactly 10 nominations, the Best Picture field will now feature up to 10 selections, with a minimum of five. So for those of us who make a living hobby out of prognosticating the Oscars, we not only have to guess which movies will be selected, but we also have to estimate how many will make the cut.

To make things even more difficult, the specific process for sussing out the Chosen Handful is, shall we say, complex. I won’t go into details; suffice it to say that you basically need to be in a room with Microsoft Excel, an abacus, and Stephen Hawking in order to sift through the ballots and determine which movies have earned enough votes for a nomination. But there’s one key element in play that’s worth emphasizing: The balloting process places a heavy premium on first-place votes. That is, when Academy members fill out their ballots and rank their top five (yes, five – don’t ask) Best Picture contenders, a first-place ranking is dramatically more significant than a second- or third-place ranking. Thus, the process places a movie that is generally well-liked by many but perhaps not adored (like, say, War Horse) in a less favorable position than a movie that has a smaller but more ardent following (like, say, The Tree of Life).

What does all of that mean? I have no idea. And that, of course, is the problem. Just bear that in mind when I only hit on three of nine Best Picture nominations and you see me two days later wandering around Boulder taking swigs from a carton of milk.

Alright, enough preemptive pessimism. Let’s get to the predictions. Also, I’m expanding the categories in which I’m predicting the nominations to 13 total fields, up from eight in years past. I’m not interested in covering the remaining categories right now, partly because I don’t want to bore my readers, and partly because I don’t feel like spending three hours analyzing the chances of Transformers: Dark of the Moon earning a Best Sound Mixing nomination. As always, upcoming posts will predict the actual winner of all 21 categories (shorts excluded), but for now, you’ll have to settle for this baker’s dozen.

BEST PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life

Comments: If nothing else, we can be absolutely certain that The Artist and The Descendants will be here, and I’m reasonably confident in Hugo as well. And that, sadly, is where my confidence ends. Gulp.

It breaks my heart not to include War Horse, but its pulse has been ebbing significantly over the past several weeks, and I think the lack of a nomination for Spielberg from the Directors’ Guild constituted the moment it officially flat-lined. Read More