Oscars

Oscars 2025: Nominations and Analysis

Jeremy BeckOscars
Brad Pitt in F1

Good is bad at the Oscars, at least when it comes to predictions. Gamblers and number-crunchers might be pleased about successfully prognosticating the Academy’s latest slate of honorees. But for those of us who prefer chaos to clarity—who hope that voters might mix in some genuine curveballs alongside all of their safe choices—a high hit rate is less cause for celebration than resignation. Oh, look, the Oscars nominated a bunch of movies everyone expected them to nominate. Again.

Not that this year’s slate of nominees provided a ton to complain about. The Academy’s picks may have been predictable, but they were hardly terrible; for the most part, voters nominated a bunch of good movies, good actors, and good artisans. They also highlighted a handful of foreign features and non-white performers. And they gave two nominations to Avatar: Fire and Ash and zero to Wicked: For Good. It could’ve been worse. Read More

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Oscars 2025: Nomination Predictions

Jeremy BeckOscars
Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Tomorrow morning, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce its nominations for their 98th awards. This will not be the most meaningful news item of the day, nor will it be the one most likely to flood you with rage; even the most devoted Best Original Song fetishists are sure to be more infuriated by real-world developments. In our era of state-sponsored terror campaigns and plotted territorial invasions, the annual ritual of complaining about the Oscars—the boringly safe choices, the bias and entrenchment, the so-called “snubs”—is less cathartic than quaint.

This doesn’t mean that the movies are a distraction; they’re the whole point. In the American utopia—i.e., the opposite of our current political moment—people spend far too much time getting far too angry about far too many dumb Academy choices. If we stop kvetching about the Oscars—which, despite my annual complaints, typically honor films that are at least pretty good—then evil has already won. Read More

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Oscars 2024: At a Sturdy Ceremony, a Daring Victor

Jeremy BeckOscars
Mark Eydelshteyn and Mikey Madison in Anora

The internet demands extreme reactions; favored adjectives include disastrous, extraordinary, loathsome, and life-changing. This tends to chafe with my obnoxious penchant for suggesting that most things are Fine. So this year, I’ll do my best to deliver a hot take and proclaim that this year’s Oscars were… pretty good! They were not exceptional; most of the speeches were dull, the songs were a bore, and the lack of clips/footage was infuriating. But while Conan O’Brien initially seemed to be pulling the tedious shtick of complaining that the nominated films weren’t “popular” enough (I groaned when he mocked the length of The Brutalist), his overall vibe proved positive, earnest, and charming; no single movie was the butt of his jokes more than he was himself. His general enthusiasm infected the rest of the show, which had the feel of a playful, buoyant get-together. If Hollywood’s celebrities indulged themselves while the world around them burned, at least they had a good time and let us vicariously share in their joy.

As for the awards themselves, in one sense the Academy spread the wealth; eight of the 10 Best Picture nominees scooped up at least one trophy, with five of them scoring multiple victories. But the night belonged to Anora. Yesterday, I noted the oddity of my predictions, which pegged Sean Baker’s odyssey to win the top prize but only one additional Oscar; I knew that I’d be wrong, but I wasn’t sure which way. Happily, my favorite of 2024’s contenders went on a spree, winning five of the six categories it was nominated in. The sands of history will decide how this quasi-sweep is perceived, but in the moment, I’m very pleased for one of the year’s most enjoyable and poignant movies.

Per tradition, let’s run through the categories in their order of presentation and see which ones I messed up: Read More

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Oscars 2024: Full List of Predictions

Jeremy BeckOscars
Selena Gomez in Emilia Perez

Tonight’s the big night, so for your convenience, we’re combining all of our predictions in the 20 feature categories at this year’s Oscars into this omnibus post. It’s curious that, while I’m (tentatively) picking Anora to win Best Picture, I’m also pegging it to take just one other prize; if that holds, it would be only the second Best Picture winner to do so since 1952 (along with Spotlight).

Of course, that won’t hold; a number of these picks will be wrong. Last year I went 18-for-20, thanks in part to Oppenheimer’s dominance; I expect to do far worse this time around. Which is cool! Praise be to a suspenseful and unpredictable 97th Academy Awards. (Categories are arranged alphabetically; click on the header link to be taken to our analysis for that specific race.)

Best Actor
Will win: Adrien Brody—The Brutalist (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Ralph Fiennes—Conclave
Worst omission: Glen Powell—Hit Man Read More

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Oscars 2024: Best Picture and Best Director

Jeremy BeckOscars
Mikey Madison in Anora; Ralph Fiennes in Conclave

You know what’s cool about this year’s Oscars? They’re uncertain. One could even use the word “exciting”! After back-to-back years of heavy sweeps (by Everything Everywhere All at Once and Oppenheimer), we’re looking at genuine races in a number of major categories, including these two. The suspense is, well, suspenseful. I’m basically guessing in at least five above-the-line fields, and that lack of confidence is oddly freeing.

Fun times. Before we finish our analysis, if you missed our rundowns of the other 18 feature categories at this year’s Academy Awards, you can find them at these links:

The lead actors
The screenplays
The supporting actors
The big techies
The odds and ends

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Jacques Audiard—Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker—Anora
Brady Corbet—The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat—The Substance
James Mangold—A Complete Unknown Read More

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