Oscars 2024: Nominations and Analysis

Margaret Qualley in The Substance

This year’s Oscar nominations were pretty good, except for the ones that were terrible. Or maybe it’s the other way around. As is always the case, it’s hard for me to get too fired up about the Academy’s selections, even if I inevitably feel a twinge of disappointment when one of my favorite films gets ignored (fare thee well, Challengers) or a rush of euphoria when another gets recognized (Coralie Fargeat, allez!). That’s how this is supposed to work: The snubs omissions go hand in hand with the surprises, resulting in an overall slate that’s flawed, messy, and interesting.

So while acknowledging that the Oscars remain perfectly imperfect, let’s run through the nominees in each of the 14 feature categories that I previously predicted (quite poorly, in some cases), along with some quickie analysis of where things currently stand: Read More

Oscars 2024: Nomination Predictions

A scene from Emilia Perez

The Oscars are good because they’re bad. If the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences exclusively bestowed trophies on the best movies, actors, and artisans, they would instantly become irrelevant—because nobody would have anything to complain about. It is the job of this institution to be wrong, to frustrate and antagonize, to create grist for the online mill of campaigning and caterwauling. What other ceremony could inspire such crazed rhetoric, like people clamoring that Emma Stone’s win last year for Poor Things was illegitimate because it came at the expense of Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon? The internet feeds on outrage, and the Oscars foment fury with annual, reliable precision.

They also, as it happens, tend to nominate pretty good movies. My own ballots rarely overlap with those of the Academy, but that’s less a function of incompetence than excess; there are simply too many good options for everyone to agree on the same subset of five (or, in the case of Best Picture, 10). The Oscars don’t matter in the same way that MVP awards in sports don’t matter—the token recognition doesn’t change the underlying performance—but they nevertheless shine a light on pictures which mainstream audiences might otherwise ignore. For that reason alone, they’re worth paying attention to, if not obsessing over. Read More

Oscars 2023: Oppenheimer Wins, Show Delivers Decent Kenergy

Ryan Gosling performing "I'm Just Ken" at the Oscars

This year’s Oscars were great, except for the bits that were terrible. Or maybe it was the other way around. Either way, such dissonance is the norm; Hollywood’s annual self-congratulatory gala has never equaled the sum of its parts. Speeches are wonderful and terrible, presentations are inspired and insipid, jokes are cutting and groaning, songs are riotous and wretched. It all adds up less to a unified ceremony than a collection of impressionable moments.

And this year’s Oscars, the 96th in the Academy’s history, delivered plenty of those. John Mulaney turned the rudimentary presentation of Best Sound (featuring a surprise winner!) into a majestic detour about Field of Dreams. Emily Blunt and Ryan Gosling reminded everyone what natural star power looks like. A powerful speech from 20 Days in Mariupol director Mstyslav Chernov (about the atrocities in Ukraine) brought the typically tittering crowd into reverent silence, only for it to later explode with euphoria following Gosling’s rendition of Barbie’s “I’m Just Ken.” John Cena got naked. Read More

Oscars 2023: Full List of Predictions

Ryan Gosling and Margot Robbie in Barbie

Over the past week, we’ve scoured the 20 different feature categories in competition at the 96th Academy Awards. Here, you can find our predictions (and preferences) for all of them, alphabetized by category. (To access the detailed piece discussing any particular category, click on the header link.)

Best Actor
Will win: Cillian Murphy—Oppenheimer (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Paul Giamatti—The Holdovers
Worst omission: Joaquin Phoenix—Beau Is Afraid

Best Actress
Will win: Lily Gladstone—Killers of the Flower Moon (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Emma Stone—Poor Things
Worst omission: Park Ji-min—Return to Seoul Read More

Oscars 2023: Best Picture and Best Director

Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer

In ideal circumstances, the Oscar would crescendo to its biggest awards, concluding an eventful and surprising night with a final announcement that’s legitimately suspenseful. That ain’t happening this year. The Best Actress race is a corker, and both screenplay categories are coming down to the wire. But when it comes to the big prize, there isn’t a whole lot of mystery remaining.

To quote one of the best movies of 2023 (albeit not one nominated for Best Picture): such is life. Besides, just because the Academy has already made up its mind doesn’t prevent me from announcing my own preferences. I’m sure you’re excited.

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Jonathan Glazer—The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos—Poor Things
Christopher Nolan—Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese—Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet—Anatomy of a Fall Read More