Oscars 2020: Prediction Roundup

Jeremy BeckOscars
Jamie Foxx in Soul

At long, long last, the 93rd Academy Awards are finally airing tonight. We’ve spent the past week running through our predictions and preferences in the 20 feature categories (sorry, I skipped the short subjects). For your handy convenience, here’s an omnibus post detailing all of our predictions, with links to more detailed analyses.

Curiously enough, even with Nomadland being the clear Best Picture frontrunner, I’m only predicting it to win three total Oscars; that’s the same number I’m predicting for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, which didn’t even score a Best Picture nomination. Does this mean anything? Probably not, but we’ll see what happens!

Best Actor
Will win: Chadwick Boseman—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Chadwick Boseman—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Worst omission: Hugh Jackman—Bad Education Read More

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Oscars 2020: Best Director and Best Picture

Jeremy BeckOscars
Frances McDormand in Nomadland

And here we are. It’s been a busy week here at MovieManifesto: We’ve already analyzed 18 feature categories at this year’s Oscars, including the lead and supporting actors, the screenplays, the big techies, and the odds and ends. Now, we get to the top two prizes. Will there be a Picture/Director split, as has happened three times in the past five years? Let’s find out!

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Lee Isaac Chung—Minari
Emerald Fennell—Promising Young Woman
David Fincher—Mank
Thomas Vinterberg—Another Round
Chloé Zhao—Nomadland Read More

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Oscars 2020: The Screenplays

Jeremy BeckOscars
Joseph Gordon-Levitt in The Trial of the Chicago 7; Anthony Hopkins in The Father

Almost done! Thus far in our weeklong run-up to the Oscars, we’ve looked at the lead actors, their supporting counterparts, the big techies, and the little ones. This morning, we’re analyzing the screenplays before we return this afternoon for a look at the big prizes.

Let’s start with the weaker of the two categories:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm—Sacha Baron Cohen et al.
The Father—Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
Nomadland—Chloé Zhao
One Night in Miami—Kemp Powers
The White Tiger—Ramin Bahrani Read More

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Oscars 2020: The Lead Actors

Jeremy BeckOscars
Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman

The Oscars are just days away! We’ve already looked at some odds and ends, some higher-profile technical categories, and Best Supporting Actor and Actress. Today, we’re examining the always-exciting races in the lead acting categories.

Let’s start with the men:


BEST ACTOR

NOMINEES
Riz Ahmed—Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins—The Father
Gary Oldman—Mank
Steven Yeun—Minari

WILL WIN
All year, everyone has been assuming that Boseman has this locked up. He probably still does. But after Hopkins defeated him at the BAFTAs, some prognosticators started rumbling that this is now a legit race. Nothing’s guaranteed, of course, but I don’t buy it—partly because The Father is an extremely British film, and partly because of, er, certain circumstances. Boseman wins a posthumous Oscar for his final performance. Read More

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Oscars 2020: The Supporting Actors

Jeremy BeckOscars
Youn Yuh-jung in Minari; Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah

And now, we get to the good stuff. Having already analyzed the technical categories at this year’s Oscars, both large and small, it’s time to dig into the races that you really care about. Today, we’re looking at Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress; tomorrow, we’ll move on to the lead actors.

Ladies first:


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

NOMINEES
Maria Bakalova—Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close—Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman—The Father
Amanda Seyfried—Mank
Youn Yuh-jung—Minari Read More

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