Thus far in our Oscars analysis, we’ve looked at categories both miscellaneous and technical, as well as the screenplays. Today, we’re running through everyone’s favorite fields: the acting categories. Let’s begin with the easiest race to predict and progress to the hardest. Read More
The Manifesto’s analysis of the 2016 Oscars continues. Yesterday, we checked in on eight different miscellaneous categories. Today, we’re finishing up the technical fields, analyzing five categories that I’m a bit more passionate about. And due to time constraints, we’re also looking at the two screenplay races. Let’s dive in. Read More
Welcome to Oscars Week! Over the next four days, we’ll be predicting the winners for each of the 21 feature categories at this Sunday’s Academy Awards. Today, we’re starting with some below-the-line fields—these categories don’t exactly capture the attention of mainstream movie audiences, but they could wreak havoc on Oscar pools. Let’s dig in. Read More
After two straight years of hitting on 80% of our Oscar nomination predictions, the Manifesto improved dramatically this year, rocketing all the way up to… 81% (56 out of 69). The Academy’s choices proved relatively middle-of-the-road, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing—sure, I could (and, in this very post, will) quibble about a few candidates that were unjustly omitted, but for the most part, this year’s nominees constitute a respectable and enjoyable slate of movies. Just keep that in mind when you’re reading a bunch of “The Oscars are out of touch!” hot takes over the next month.
Here’s a quick look at the major categories in light of this morning’s announcement.
BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Hacksaw Ridge
Analysis: I went low, they went high. Go figure. Still, although I incorrectly surmised that Hacksaw Ridge would fail to make the cut, I hit on my remaining eight guesses. With the caveat that I’ve yet to see Lion (this weekend!), it’s a strong Best Picture contingent overall; at least four of these nominees are likely to end up on my top 10 list, and the remaining are diverting at worst.
Current favorite: La La Land. The only potential challenger I see is Moonlight, but for it to make headway, the frontrunner is going to have to experience significant backlash. And by “backlash”, I mean something more potent than the current deluge of insufferable “think-pieces” that are popping up online like faux-insightful whack-a-moles. Read More
With the nominations for the 2016* Academy Awards being released tomorrow morning, it’s time for the Manifesto to unveil its official predictions. I’ve hit on a mediocre 80% of my predictions each of the last two years, so we’ll see if I can improve on that mark this year (I don’t have high hopes). Per usual, we’re only predicting nominations for 13 categories; we’ll have predictions for the winners in all 21 feature fields prior to the big show on February 26.
(* Although most websites refer to these as the 2017 Academy Awards, all of the movies were released in 2016, so I prefer that nomenclature.) Read More