Well, the Oscar nominations are out, and I hit on 81% of my predictions (56 of 69), which is the exact same percentage I got last year. I’m nothing if not consistently mediocre. Let’s run through some quick analysis of the nominees.
BEST PICTURE
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Florida Project Darkest Hour
Analysis: I was right! And also wrong! More specifically, I was right about the number of nominees (nine rather than eight), and I correctly suspected that Phantom Thread would crack the field. But I definitely did not expect Darkest Hour to show up in place of The Florida Project; clearly, the former’s refined craftsmanship and political message resonated with voters.
Current favorite: It’s tempting to pick The Shape of Water right now, given that it led the field with 13 total nominations (one short of the record). But as we’ve seen in the past with Spotlight and Moonlight, quantity doesn’t necessarily equate to success for the top prize. Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards are all still in play. This could go down to the wire (which will be fun!).
Worst omission: War for the Planet of the Apes. Yes, I know, there was no way the Academy was going to highlight a threequel about talking monkeys, but people are sleeping on just how good this movie was.
BEST DIRECTOR
Guillermo del Toro—The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig—Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan—Dunkirk
Jordan Peele—Get Out
Martin McDonagh—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Paul Thomas Anderson—Phantom Thread
Analysis: With Phantom Thread cracking the Best Picture lineup, it’s no huge surprise to see Anderson show up here. But I am mildly surprised—and relieved—that he bumped off McDonagh rather than Nolan.
Current favorite: Del Toro. Over the past few years, the Academy has skewed technical in this category, regardless of which movie actually wins Best Picture. That would pit del Toro against Nolan, but I think The Shape of Water has stronger legs.
Worst omission: Denis Villeneuve—Blade Runner 2049. This 35-year-old sequel extended the Blade Runner universe in bold and intelligent ways, and Villeneuve’s craftsmanship was astonishing.
BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins—The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie—I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan—Lady Bird
Meryl Streep—The Post
Analysis: Nailed it!
Current favorite: I’ll lean toward Ronan right now, though she’s basically in a three-way tie with Hawkins and McDormand. If Three Billboards wins Best Picture, McDormand is the pick here.
Worst omission: None. Sure, I wouldn’t have minded seeing Jennifer Lawrence show up for mother! or Aubrey Plaza for Ingrid Goes West, but this field is absolutely loaded. Good job, all.
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet—Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis—Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya—Get Out
Gary Oldman—Darkest Hour
James Franco—The Disaster Artist Denzel Washington—Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Analysis: I’d suggested that the trio of Kaluuya, James Franco, and Tom Hanks was battling for two spots; turns out, they were competing for one, with Washington pipping Franco instead of Hanks. Again: Never count out Denzel.
Current favorite: Oldman. Chalamet could challenge if Call Me by Your Name gains traction, but the venerable Oldman has never won before, and he delivers an enjoyably showy performance in Darkest Hour. It’s his time.
Worst omission: Tom Hanks—The Post. Everybody loves him; nobody appreciates him.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige—Mudbound
Allison Janney—I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf—Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer—The Shape of Water
Holly Hunter—The Big Sick Lesley Manville—Phantom Thread
Analysis: The Phantom Thread party continues! Kudos to the Academy for honoring Manville’s gloriously icy performance.
Current favorite: It’s a coin flip between Janney and Metcalf. Gun to my head right now, I’ll take Janney.
Worst omission: Sofia Boutella—Atomic Blonde. Actioners are rarely recognized in the acting branch, but Boutella invested what could have been a throwaway role with extraordinary brittleness and humanity.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe—The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins—The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Michael Stuhlbarg—Call Me by Your Name Christopher Plummer—All the Money in the World
Analysis: Plummer’s appearance isn’t a huge surprise. Wait, does this mean I have to see All the Money in the World now? Guh.
Current favorite: One week ago, I would have said Dafoe, but between Rockwell winning at SAG and The Florida Project receiving a grand total of one nomination, I think Rockwell has pulled into the lead.
Worst omission: Idris Elba—Molly’s Game. It’s always a treat to watch great actors deliver Aaron Sorkin monologues, and Elba did so with his usual magnetism.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Get Out—Jordan Peele
Lady Bird—Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water—Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri—Martin McDonagh
The Post—Liz Hannah and Josh Singer The Big Sick—Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
Analysis: It’s interesting that, while The Post managed to land a Best Picture nod, it gained little traction lower down the lineup, with Streep earning its only other nomination. That allowed The Big Sick to show up here.
Current favorite: I’ll go with Get Out, though other than The Big Sick, any of these could take it.
Worst omission: Dunkirk—Christopher Nolan. Even when he wins, he loses.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me by Your Name—James Ivory
The Disaster Artist—Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
Molly’s Game—Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound—Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Wonder—Stephen Chbosky, Steven Conrad, Jack Thorne Logan—Scott Frank, James Mangold, and Michael Green
Analysis: Superheroes live!
Current favorite: Call Me by Your Name is the lone Best Picture nominee, so it’s probably the safe pick at this point. Don’t sleep on Sorkin, though. Never sleep on Sorkin.
Worst omission: Wonder Woman—Allan Heinberg. Speaking of superheroes, Wonder Woman was an imperfect movie, but it illustrated how versatile the genre can be, blending romance, intrigue, and fish-out-of-water comedy.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049—Roger Deakins
Darkest Hour—Bruno Delbonnel
Dunkirk—Hoyte van Hoytema
The Shape of Water—Dan Laustsen
Call Me by Your Name—Sayombhu Mukdeeprom Mudbound—Rachel Morrison
Analysis: Serves me right for trying to get cute.
Current favorite: Blade Runner 2049. I suppose it’s possible that Dunkirk or The Shape of Water could make a move, but for the love of God, just give Roger Deakins his Oscar already.
Worst omission: The Lost City of Z—Darius Khondji. The film’s jungle scenes are thrillingly gorgeous, while the pastoral images of England are no less lovely (and golly, that last shot).
BEST FILM EDITING
Dunkirk—Lee Smith
I, Tonya—Tatiana S. Riegel
The Shape of Water—Sidney Wolinsky
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri—Jon Gregory
Blade Runner 2049—Joe Walker Baby Driver— Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
Analysis: So much for Blade Runner 2049 ripping through the technical categories.
Current favorite: Dunkirk. Has to be. This should not be close.
Worst omission: The Killing of a Sacred Deer—Yorgos Mavropsaridis. The movie keeps you on relentless edge throughout, and the arrhythmic editing plays a crucial role in that.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dunkirk—Hans Zimmer
Phantom Thread—Jonny Greenwood
The Shape of Water—Alexandre Desplat
Darkest Hour—Dario Marianelli Star Wars: The Last Jedi—John Williams
The Post—John Williams Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri—Carter Burwell
Analysis: Look, I told you not to count out John Williams; I just picked the wrong John Williams score. As for the Three Billboards nomination, I confess I didn’t see that one coming, even for a beloved industry vet like Burwell.
Current favorite: Probably The Shape of Water, though Dunkirk could muscle its way into the mix.
Worst omission: Wonderstruck—Carter Burwell. If I predicted the wrong John Williams score, the Academy nominated the wrong Carter Burwell score. His magnificent music in Wonderstruck is essentially its own character.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Analysis: See, I knew there was a reason I was confident on this one.
Current favorite: Toss-up between The Shape of Water and Blade Runner 2049, though don’t count out Dunkirk.
Worst omission: Ghost in the Shell. I suppose it didn’t have a chance with Blade Runner using a similar style, but it merited recognition all the same.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
Dunkirk Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2
The Shape of Water Kong: Skull Island
Analysis: Well, it’s rather embarrassing when you start with a field of 10 potential nominees and you still whiff on two of the final five. Nice work on Kong, though!
Current favorite: War for the Planet of the Apes. It’s time, people.
Worst omission: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets. Come on, Academy voters, did you even see this movie? It was amazing. Dumb, but amazing.
OK, that’s a wrap for now. We’ll be back the week before the show with some more detailed analysis of each category.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.