My modest goal in predicting this year’s Oscar nominations was to exceed my success rate from last year, when I hit on 80% (55 of 69). Well, things really changed this time around, when I connected on… 80%. (Between the variable number of Best Picture nominees and the category ambiguity with Alicia Vikander, there’s some fuzzy math involved, but you’ll just have to take my word for it.) I can’t decide if this means I’m impressively consistent or consistently mediocre.
In any event, there’s plenty to unpack following yesterday’s announcement. Let’s take a quick category-by-category scan through the lineup and see where things stand. Read More
With the 2015 Oscar nominations being announced in a matter of hours, the Manifesto is racing against the clock to finalize its predictions. Last year, we hit on a pedestrian 80% (55 of 69), so we’re hoping to top that figure this go-round. The good news is that I’ve actually seen most of the movies in contention this year, which will better inform my speculation. The bad news? I’ve seen most of the movies in contention, meaning I can’t trot out the usual “It’s not my fault, I haven’t seen it” excuse as a crutch. So it goes.
On to the predictions. Per usual, we’re predicting the eight major categories, plus five additional below-the-line fields that I consider to be of significant importance. We’ll be back on Friday with analysis of the nominations, with category-specific coverage leading up to the big show on February 28. Read More
So how were this year’s Oscars? It depends on which part of me you’re asking. As a movie fan, they were intriguingly democratic—each of the eight Best Picture nominees walked away with at least one statuette—even if I was disappointed in the Academy’s choice for its top prize. As a show business fan, they were pretty awful, with a limp performance from host Neil Patrick Harris and a draggy first two-and-a-half hours that were only marginally redeemed by some strong speeches on the back end.
But as a prognosticator, they were pretty good. I went 17-for-21 this year (81%), a dip from last year’s career-best 19-for-21 performance, but still reasonably impressive given the relative unpredictability of this year’s slate. (Translation: I couldn’t just check off Gravity for one-third of this year’s races.) My success, as always, was the combination of painstaking research and dumb luck. I’ll take it.
Last year, the Manifesto had an incredibly strong showing at the Oscars, correctly predicting 19 of the 21 feature categories. I can assure you that will not be the case this year. But the surprises are part of the fun, and I look forward to seeing just where I went disastrously wrong in my predictions. Scanning through this list, I wonder if I’ve overrated The Grand Budapest Hotel (which I’m pegging for five wins) and underestimated American Sniper (which I’ve chalked up for just two wins, both in the sound categories). It’s also rather bizarre that I came close to choosing Boyhood to win Best Picture, yet I’m ultimately predicting it walks away with just two trophies (and only one of those victories is relatively assured).
In any event, here are the Manifesto’s official predictions for each of those 21 feature categories (per usual, I’m skipping the shorts). I’m organizing them in order of confidence levels; I try to distribute these evenly, even though I’d really rather assign the lowest possible confidence to 14 different categories.
And here we are. Thus far in the Manifesto’s Oscar analysis, we’ve looked at the technical categories, including the ones that really matter and the ones that matter a little less; the supporting actor and actress fields; the screenplays; and the lead actors. And now, we come to the two big ones. In a refreshing change of pace from the Oscars’ usual predictability, they’re two of the more uncertain awards of the night.
BEST DIRECTOR
NOMINEES Wes Anderson—The Grand Budapest Hotel Alejandro González Iñárritu—Birdman Richard Linklater—Boyhood Bennett Miller—Foxcatcher Morten Tyldum—The Imitation Game
WILL WIN Given how much low-hanging fruit The Grand Budapest Hotel is likely to scoop up over the course of the evening, Anderson has a theoretical shot. But this is really a faceoff between Iñárritu and Linklater, the helmers of the two Best Picture favorites. As it result, it really comes to what Academy voters value in this category. The argument for Linklater is more conceptual than technical; there’s obviously never been a movie like Boyhood, and it took its director’s incredible vision to make it happen. But as recent wins for Gravity‘s Alfonso Cuarón and Life of Pi‘s Ang Lee suggest, the Best Director award is increasingly becoming tied to technical achievement. And as astonishing as Boyhood is in its scope and its storytelling, it’s fairly ordinary in its technical execution, whereas Birdman is a showy and dazzling piece of cinematic artistry. On that score, Iñárritu is the pick. (He also has the guild nod, which hardly hurts.)
