Oscars 2015: Full Prediction Roundup

Last year, the Manifesto did a respectable if unextraordinary job predicting the Oscars, hitting on 17 of 21 feature categories. (I never pick the shorts. Deal with it.) We’re hoping to improve this year, though with an unpredictable Best Picture race and multiple heavy hitters competing in the technical fields, things could get dicey.

So be it. Here are the Manifesto’s official Oscar predictions; they’re sorted alphabetically for ease of access, but I’m also including confidence points, just so you can see where I’m shaky and, well, less shaky.

Best Actor
Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio—The Revenant (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Michael Fassbender—Steve Jobs
Worst snub: Tom Hanks—Bridge of Spies

Best Actress
Will win: Brie Larson—Room (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Saoirse Ronan—Brooklyn
Worst snub: Nina Hoss—Phoenix

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: The Big Short—Adam McKay, Charles Randolph (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: The Big Short—Adam McKay, Charles Randolph
Worst snub: Steve Jobs—Aaron Sorkin

Best Animated Feature
Will win: Inside Out (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Inside Out

Best Cinematography
Will win: The Revenant—Emmanuel Lubezki (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: The Revenant—Emmanuel Lubezki
Worst snub: The Assassin—Lee Ping Bin

Best Costume Design
Will win: Cinderella (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Carol
Worst snub: Chi-Raq

Best Director
Will win: Alejandro González Iñárritu—The Revenant (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: George Miller—Mad Max: Fury Road
Worst snub: Denis Villeneuve—Sicario

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: Amy (confidence: 3/5)

Best Film Editing
Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road—Margaret Sixel (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Spotlight—Tom McArdle
Worst snub: Sicario—Joe Walker

Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: Son of Saul (confidence: 4/5)
Worst snub: Mommy

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Worst snub: Predestination

Best Original Score
Will win: The Hateful Eight—Ennio Morricone (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Carol—Carter Burwell
Worst snub: Z for Zachariah—Heather McIntosh

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Spotlight—Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Inside Out—Josh Cooley, Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve
Worst snub: About Elly—Asghar Farhadi

Best Original Song
Will win: The Hunting Ground—”Til It Happens to You” (Lady Gaga and Diane Warren) (confidence: 2/5)
Worst snub: Dope—”Don’t Bring Me Down” (Awreeoh)

Best Picture
Will win: The Revenant (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Brooklyn
Worst snub: Inside Out

Best Production Design
Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Worst snub: Crimson Peak

Best Sound Editing
Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road (confidence: 2/5)

Best Sound Mixing
Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road (confidence: 2/5)

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Sylvester Stallone—Creed (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Tom Hardy—The Revenant
Worst snub: Oscar Isaac—Ex Machina

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Alicia Vikander—The Danish Girl (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Kate Winslet—Steve Jobs
Worst snub: Elizabeth Banks—Love & Mercy

Best Visual Effects
Will win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: The Revenant
Worst snub: The Walk