Oscars 2014: Nomination Prediction Results (with bonus analysis!)

David Oyelowo in Selma

As I frantically scrolled through the list of Oscar nominations this morning, I realized something odd: For the most part, I didn’t really care who was nominated. Sure, I preferred some candidates to others, and as a matter of quasi-professional pride, I wanted to perform well in my predictions. (For the record, I went 55-for-69, good for a solid but unremarkable 80%.) But as I started scanning the collective of this year’s Academy Award representatives, I realized that only one scenario would break my heart: if Whiplash failed to receive a Best Picture nomination. Beyond that, my casual rooting interest seemed disproportionate to the level of obsession I place on analyzing the Oscars in the first place.

Still, one omission from yesterday’s announcement infuriated me, and it came in one of the few categories I didn’t even bother to predict. I’ve had an uneasy relationship with the Best Animated Feature category for some time, though I’ve gradually, grudgingly acknowledged its utility (highlighting the merits of a number of movies that would other be ignored as “kiddie fare”), even as I remain wary of its larger implications (marginalizing those same movies by roping them off into their own special category, a form of cinematic discrimination). But my general antipathy toward the category couldn’t prevent my eyes from bulging in disbelief as I read the five contenders that will comprise this year’s field. Not among them: The LEGO Movie.

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Oscars 2014: The Manifesto’s Official Oscar Nomination Predictions

Bradley Cooper in American Sniper

Don’t look now, but a dynasty is being built in America, as an unstoppable juggernaut—captained by an unflappable, charismatic leader—is seeking to become champion of the world for the second consecutive year. No, I’m not talking about the Seattle Seahawks’ ongoing efforts to repeat at the Super Bowl. I’m talking about the Manifesto and its quest to perfectly predict the slate of the Oscars’ Best Picture nominees two years running. Now, I recognize that I just compared myself to Russell Wilson, but let’s not be ridiculous: Russell Wilson never won this.

Besides, Wilson’s presence accounts for roughly 1.9% of the Seahawks’ game-day roster; I’m doing this all on my own. In terms of astonishing repeat performances, if I can pull this off, I’d slot it somewhere between Johnny Vander Meer pitching back-to-back no-hitters and Jed Bartlet winning reelection despite the American public discovering that he’d spent the last four years in the Oval Office concealing a life-threatening disease. We’re on the brink of history here, people.

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2013 Oscars: Show recap (“12 Years a Slave” holds off “Gravity”)

The Manifesto was overdue for a good night. After hitting on a paltry two-thirds of my predictions each of the past two years (14-for-21), I hit on all but two categories at the 2013 Academy Awards, finishing 19-for-21 for a success rate of 90%. Now, did I do that well because the awards were thoroughly predictable, or because I’m a prognosticating genius? I’ll let you decide.

As for the show itself, you know what? It could have been worse. I’m not a huge Ellen DeGeneres fan, but after last year’s Seth MacFarlane fiasco (for the record, I liked him), the Academy needed to bring in someone safe and inoffensive. By those guidelines, DeGeneres did her job. Her opening monologue was generally funny, and her overall demeanor was enthusiastic, playful, and non-threatening. The majority of her jokes landed, and the ones that didn’t were earnest and warmhearted rather than mean-spirited. Her act wore a tad thin as the show went on (and on and on)—particularly the pizza bit, which was strained to begin with and gradually turned into a complete train wreck as it continued—but that’s more indicative of the defunct nature of the hosting gig in general than any specific failure on DeGeneres’ part. Read More

Oscars 2013: Prediction roundup

I wrote earlier that, as obsessively as I analyze the Oscars, I tend not to care who actually wins. This year, that’s true with the exception of two categories: Best Original Screenplay and—much to my amazement—Best Original Song. If my preferred nominee fails to scoop the statuette in those areas, you’ll likely hear my wail of anguish all the way from suburban Denver. Otherwise, I’m looking forward to a competitive, unpredictable night.

Below you’ll find my predictions in each of the 21 feature categories (as always, I’m declining to predict the three shorts). The predictions are organized by level of confidence, so for the first four, I advise you to pick something else in your pool. Read More

Oscars 2013: Best Picture (“Gravity” faces off against “12 Years a Slave”)

And here we go. In my estimation, this is the most intriguing Best Picture race since at least 2005 (when Crash stunned Brokeback Mountain), and probably the most openly competitive since 2004 (when Million Dollar Baby held off The Aviator). Even more intriguing, if the night pans out the way I expect (admittedly, it usually doesn’t), the winner should remain a mystery right up until the actual announcement. Here’s to some actual suspense at the Oscars.

NOMINEES
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street Read More