We’ve already ripped through eight less significant (in this viewer’s opinion) technical categories. Now it’s time to get to the big guns. Not only are these categories independently intriguing, but their winners could also foreshadow some of the night’s more high-profile awards.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
NOMINEES Birdman—Emmanuel Lubezki The Grand Budapest Hotel—Robert D. Yeoman Ida—Lukasz Zal, Ryszard Lynzewski Mr. Turner—Dick Pope Unbroken—Roger Deakins
WILL WIN Birdman. Lubezki is on a heater right now after winning for Gravity last year, and besides, the entire movie looks like it was shot on one freaking take. Call that technique facile if you want, but Academy voters are going to respond to it.
With the Oscars airing on Sunday, and with the Manifesto having finally wrapped up its rankings of every 2014 release, it’s time to get down to brass tacks and analyze the 21 feature categories. We’ll begin with the technical categories. This post will cover “the little guys”—the fields you probably don’t care that much about but that nevertheless recognize important contributions to a movie’s overall worth.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
NOMINEES Big Hero 6 The Boxtrolls How to Train Your Dragon 2 Song of the Sea The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
WILL WIN The LEGO Movie. Guh. But with the year’s most critically and commercially successful animated film mysteriously missing the cut, there’s a bit of intrigue to be found here. The Boxtrolls has its admirers, but in all likelihood, this will come down to a battle between two studio-backed heavy hitters in Fox’s How to Train Your Dragon 2 and Disney’s (not Pixar’s, as my friend Katie chastised me last month) Big Hero 6. The former is arguably at a disadvantage because it’s a sequel, whereas the latter is an original production (in case you’re confused, Big Hero 6 is not the sixth installment in the “Big Hero” franchise). In the brief 13-year history of this category, the only retread to win the award is Toy Story 3 (defeating the original How to Train Your Dragon, in point of fact), and that was also a Best Picture nominee—How to Train Your Dragon 2 isn’t operating with that level of cachet. Still, it’s a more classically beautifully and stirring film than the fun but familiar Big Hero 6, and I’m guessing voters will respond to its childlike sense of wonder. How to Train Your Dragon 2 takes it.
As I frantically scrolled through the list of Oscar nominations this morning, I realized something odd: For the most part, I didn’t really care who was nominated. Sure, I preferred some candidates to others, and as a matter of quasi-professional pride, I wanted to perform well in my predictions. (For the record, I went 55-for-69, good for a solid but unremarkable 80%.) But as I started scanning the collective of this year’s Academy Award representatives, I realized that only one scenario would break my heart: if Whiplash failed to receive a Best Picture nomination. Beyond that, my casual rooting interest seemed disproportionate to the level of obsession I place on analyzing the Oscars in the first place.
Still, one omission from yesterday’s announcement infuriated me, and it came in one of the few categories I didn’t even bother to predict. I’ve had an uneasy relationship with the Best Animated Feature category for some time, though I’ve gradually, grudgingly acknowledged its utility (highlighting the merits of a number of movies that would other be ignored as “kiddie fare”), even as I remain wary of its larger implications (marginalizing those same movies by roping them off into their own special category, a form of cinematic discrimination). But my general antipathy toward the category couldn’t prevent my eyes from bulging in disbelief as I read the five contenders that will comprise this year’s field. Not among them: The LEGO Movie.
Don’t look now, but a dynasty is being built in America, as an unstoppable juggernaut—captained by an unflappable, charismatic leader—is seeking to become champion of the world for the second consecutive year. No, I’m not talking about the Seattle Seahawks’ ongoing efforts to repeat at the Super Bowl. I’m talking about the Manifesto and its quest to perfectly predict the slate of the Oscars’ Best Picture nominees two years running. Now, I recognize that I just compared myself to Russell Wilson, but let’s not be ridiculous: Russell Wilson never won this.
Besides, Wilson’s presence accounts for roughly 1.9% of the Seahawks’ game-day roster; I’m doing this all on my own. In terms of astonishing repeat performances, if I can pull this off, I’d slot it somewhere between Johnny Vander Meer pitching back-to-back no-hitters and Jed Bartlet winning reelection despite the American public discovering that he’d spent the last four years in the Oval Office concealing a life-threatening disease. We’re on the brink of history here, people.
The Manifesto was overdue for a good night. After hitting on a paltry two-thirds of my predictions each of the past two years (14-for-21), I hit on all but two categories at the 2013 Academy Awards, finishing 19-for-21 for a success rate of 90%. Now, did I do that well because the awards were thoroughly predictable, or because I’m a prognosticating genius? I’ll let you decide.
As for the show itself, you know what? It could have been worse. I’m not a huge Ellen DeGeneres fan, but after last year’s Seth MacFarlane fiasco (for the record, I liked him), the Academy needed to bring in someone safe and inoffensive. By those guidelines, DeGeneres did her job. Her opening monologue was generally funny, and her overall demeanor was enthusiastic, playful, and non-threatening. The majority of her jokes landed, and the ones that didn’t were earnest and warmhearted rather than mean-spirited. Her act wore a tad thin as the show went on (and on and on)—particularly the pizza bit, which was strained to begin with and gradually turned into a complete train wreck as it continued—but that’s more indicative of the defunct nature of the hosting gig in general than any specific failure on DeGeneres’ part. Read More
