Oscars 2014: The Manifesto’s Complete Oscar Predictions

Last year, the Manifesto had an incredibly strong showing at the Oscars, correctly predicting 19 of the 21 feature categories. I can assure you that will not be the case this year. But the surprises are part of the fun, and I look forward to seeing just where I went disastrously wrong in my predictions. Scanning through this list, I wonder if I’ve overrated The Grand Budapest Hotel (which I’m pegging for five wins) and underestimated American Sniper (which I’ve chalked up for just two wins, both in the sound categories). It’s also rather bizarre that I came close to choosing Boyhood to win Best Picture, yet I’m ultimately predicting it walks away with just two trophies (and only one of those victories is relatively assured).

In any event, here are the Manifesto’s official predictions for each of those 21 feature categories (per usual, I’m skipping the shorts). I’m organizing them in order of confidence levels; I try to distribute these evenly, even though I’d really rather assign the lowest possible confidence to 14 different categories.

Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: Ida (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: [Abstain]
Worst snub: Force Majeure

Best Original Score
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel—Alexandre Desplat (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Interstellar—Hans Zimmer
Worst snub: Gone Girl—Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

Best Picture
Will win: Birdman (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Whiplash
Worst snub: Gone Girl

Best Sound Mixing
Will win: American Sniper (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Whiplash
Worst snub: Get On Up

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: The Imitation Game—Graham Moore (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Whiplash—Damien Chazelle
Worst snub: Gone Girl—Gillian Flynn

Best Film Editing
Will win: Boyhood—Sandra Adair (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Whiplash—Tom Cross
Worst snub: Edge of Tomorrow—James Herbert, Laura Jennings

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel—Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Boyhood—Richard Linklater
Worst snub: A Most Violent Year—J.C. Chandor

Best Sound Editing
Will win: American Sniper (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Interstellar
Worst snub: The Babadook

Best Visual Effects
Will win: Interstellar (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Worst snub: None. Good ballot.

Best Actor
Will win: Eddie Redmayne—The Theory of Everything (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Benedict Cumberbatch—The Imitation Game
Worst snub: Tom Hardy—Locke

Best Animated Feature
Will win: How to Train Your Dragon 2 (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Worst snub: The LEGO Movie

Best Costume Design
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Maleficent
Worst snub: Get On Up

Best Director
Will win: Alejandro González Iñárritu—Birdman (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Wes Anderson—The Grand Budapest Hotel
Worst snub: Christopher Nolan—Interstellar

Best Cinematography
Will win: Birdman—Emmanuel Lubezki (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Birdman—Emmanuel Lubezki
Worst snub: The Immigrant—Darius Khondji

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Worst snub: Snowpiercer

Best Original Song
Will win: Selma—”Glory” (John Legend and Common) (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: The LEGO Movie—”Everything Is Awesome” (Shawn Patterson, feat. Tegan and Sara and The Lonely Island)
Worst snub: Muppets Most Wanted—”Interrogation Song” (Bret McKenzie and Paul Roemen)

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Patricia Arquette—Boyhood (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Keira Knightley—The Imitation Game
Worst snub: Tilda Swinton—Snowpiercer

Best Actress
Will win: Julianne Moore—Still Alice (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Rosamund Pike—Gone Girl
Worst snub: Shailene Woodley—The Fault in Our Stars

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: CITIZENFOUR (confidence: 5/5)
Should win/worst snub: [Abstain]

Best Production Design
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Worst snub: The Double

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: J.K. Simmons—Whiplash (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: J.K. Simmons—Whiplash
Worst snub: Christoph Waltz—Big Eyes