MovieManifesto

Oscars 2019: Prediction Roundup

February 9, 2020March 4, 2021 Jeremy BeckOscars

One of these two gents is about to win an Oscar!

Before we concatenate all of our Oscar predictions: Did you ever want to listen to me talk about movies? Now you can! The SportsAlcohol team did a brief podcast on this year’s Oscars. We discuss which Best Picture nominee is most likely to be reviled in future years if it wins, why “brutally honest” anonymous ballots are bullshit, and how on earth The Two Popes scored three major nominations. It’s a fun chat. (We also did a much longer podcast on the Best Movies of 2019. Enjoy!)

With that out of the way, here are all of our predictions in a single omnibus post, with links to our more detailed write-ups. Oddly enough, I’ve discovered that the only race I’m emotionally invested in is Best Adapted Screenplay. Go Greta go! Read More

Oscars 2019: Best Picture and Best Director

February 7, 2020March 4, 2021 Jeremy BeckOscars

And here we are. After a week spent analyzing 19 different feature categories at this year’s Oscars—including odds and ends, technical fields, supporting actors, lead performances, and screenplays—we’ve finally arrived at the big ones. Let’s get right to it.

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Bong Joon-ho—Parasite
Sam Mendes—1917
Todd Phillips—Joker
Martin Scorsese—The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

WILL WIN
It used to be easy; whoever made the winner of Best Picture also won for Best Director. But the two categories have split as often as not in the past decade—five times in the past seven years, in fact—so now things are more complex. You can tie yourself into knots trying to locate points of synergy or disconnect between the two categories, but at this point, I’m partial to essentially ignoring the Best Picture lineup and analyzing the two fields independently. Read More

Oscars 2019: The Screenplays

February 7, 2020March 4, 2021 Jeremy BeckOscars

Almost there! We’ve already posted four different pieces on this year’s Oscars, looking at odds and ends, techies, supporting actors, and leads. Now, we’ll take a quick skim through the screenplay categories, before wrapping up with Best Director and Best Picture later today.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
Knives Out—Rian Johnson
Marriage Story—Noah Baumbach
1917—Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood—Quentin Tarantino
Parasite—Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won Read More

Oscars 2019: The Lead Actors

February 6, 2020March 4, 2021 Jeremy BeckOscars

Renée Zellweger is set to claim another Oscar for "Judy".

Our Oscars analysis is entering its home stretch. Previously, we’ve looked at odds and ends, technical fields, and the supporting actor and actress races. Today, we’re looking at Best Actor and Best Actress. As discussed yesterday, the acting races this year are very boring to predict; they’re also very fun to analyze.

BEST ACTOR

NOMINEES
Antonio Banderas—Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver—Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix—Joker
Jonathan Pryce—The Two Popes

WILL WIN
Phoenix. And honestly, good for him. No, Joker isn’t my favorite Joaquin Phoenix performance—that would probably be Her, though The Master, Inherent Vice, and You Were Never Really Here might all put up a fight—but it’s still a very good one. He deserves to have a trophy on his shelf. Read More

Oscars 2019: The Supporting Actors

February 5, 2020March 4, 2021 Jeremy BeckOscars

Thus far in our ongoing Oscars analysis, we’ve looked at some odds and ends and some technical categories. Today, we get to the good stuff: the supporting actor and actress races.

One curious thing about this year’s Oscars is that all four of the acting awards are virtually sewn up; the BAFTAs, the Golden Globes, and the Screen Actors Guild all honored the same performers in each category (ignoring the Globes’ musical/comedy offshoots for lead actor, neither of whom is even nominated here). This makes predicting these particular Oscar races rather boring. But who cares? The juicy stuff with actors isn’t who will win, but who should—and, more importantly, who appears on your own personal ballot. The quality of acting in cinema these days is extraordinarily strong, so narrowing down each category to a proper quintet is always a daunting challenge.

Who made the Manifesto’s cut? Read on to find out. Read More