Oscars 2019: Parasite Triumphs, and So Does History

Wait, they gave WHAT Best Picture?

Every so often, the Academy gets one right.

Look, I don’t care all that much about the Oscars. They’re a self-congratulatory ceremony designed to honor the preferences of an insular collective whose tastes rarely mirror my own. Getting worked up about them is just silly. But they still matter, as a matter of historical record if nothing else. Sure, the Academy Awards can help launch careers or highlight social issues, but their primary function these days is statistical. Actors are identified in obituaries as having been nominated X number of times, while certain victories become data points—anecdotes used to spot cinematic trends in terms of genre, style, and demographics. How many war movies have won Best Picture? How many women have been nominated for Best Director? These questions are posed not just in esoteric bar trivia, but by scholars who seek to measure changes within the film industry, who participate in our ongoing quest to determine which movies we like and which we ruefully ignore. We pay attention to the Oscars because they matter; the Oscars matter because we pay attention. Read More

Oscars 2019: Prediction Roundup

One of these two gents is about to win an Oscar!

Before we concatenate all of our Oscar predictions: Did you ever want to listen to me talk about movies? Now you can! The SportsAlcohol team did a brief podcast on this year’s Oscars. We discuss which Best Picture nominee is most likely to be reviled in future years if it wins, why “brutally honest” anonymous ballots are bullshit, and how on earth The Two Popes scored three major nominations. It’s a fun chat. (We also did a much longer podcast on the Best Movies of 2019. Enjoy!)

With that out of the way, here are all of our predictions in a single omnibus post, with links to our more detailed write-ups. Oddly enough, I’ve discovered that the only race I’m emotionally invested in is Best Adapted Screenplay. Go Greta go! Read More

Oscars 2019: Best Picture and Best Director

Parasite! 1917! Duel!

And here we are. After a week spent analyzing 19 different feature categories at this year’s Oscars—including odds and ends, technical fields, supporting actors, lead performances, and screenplays—we’ve finally arrived at the big ones. Let’s get right to it.


BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Bong Joon-ho—Parasite
Sam Mendes—1917
Todd Phillips—Joker
Martin Scorsese—The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

WILL WIN
It used to be easy; whoever made the winner of Best Picture also won for Best Director. But the two categories have split as often as not in the past decade—five times in the past seven years, in fact—so now things are more complex. You can tie yourself into knots trying to locate points of synergy or disconnect between the two categories, but at this point, I’m partial to essentially ignoring the Best Picture lineup and analyzing the two fields independently. Read More

Oscars 2019: The Screenplays

"Little Women," destined to be robbed.

Almost there! We’ve already posted four different pieces on this year’s Oscars, looking at odds and ends, techies, supporting actors, and leads. Now, we’ll take a quick skim through the screenplay categories, before wrapping up with Best Director and Best Picture later today.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
Knives Out—Rian Johnson
Marriage Story—Noah Baumbach
1917—Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood—Quentin Tarantino
Parasite—Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won Read More

Oscars 2019: The Lead Actors

Renée Zellweger is set to claim another Oscar for "Judy".

Our Oscars analysis is entering its home stretch. Previously, we’ve looked at odds and ends, technical fields, and the supporting actor and actress races. Today, we’re looking at Best Actor and Best Actress. As discussed yesterday, the acting races this year are very boring to predict; they’re also very fun to analyze.


BEST ACTOR

NOMINEES
Antonio Banderas—Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver—Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix—Joker
Jonathan Pryce—The Two Popes

WILL WIN
Phoenix. And honestly, good for him. No, Joker isn’t my favorite Joaquin Phoenix performance—that would probably be Her, though The Master, Inherent Vice, and You Were Never Really Here might all put up a fight—but it’s still a very good one. He deserves to have a trophy on his shelf. Read More