Oscars 2024: At a Sturdy Ceremony, a Daring Victor

Mark Eydelshteyn and Mikey Madison in Anora

The internet demands extreme reactions; favored adjectives include disastrous, extraordinary, loathsome, and life-changing. This tends to chafe with my obnoxious penchant for suggesting that most things are Fine. So this year, I’ll do my best to deliver a hot take and proclaim that this year’s Oscars were… pretty good! They were not exceptional; most of the speeches were dull, the songs were a bore, and the lack of clips/footage was infuriating. But while Conan O’Brien initially seemed to be pulling the tedious shtick of complaining that the nominated films weren’t “popular” enough (I groaned when he mocked the length of The Brutalist), his overall vibe proved positive, earnest, and charming; no single movie was the butt of his jokes more than he was himself. His general enthusiasm infected the rest of the show, which had the feel of a playful, buoyant get-together. If Hollywood’s celebrities indulged themselves while the world around them burned, at least they had a good time and let us vicariously share in their joy.

As for the awards themselves, in one sense the Academy spread the wealth; eight of the 10 Best Picture nominees scooped up at least one trophy, with five of them scoring multiple victories. But the night belonged to Anora. Yesterday, I noted the oddity of my predictions, which pegged Sean Baker’s odyssey to win the top prize but only one additional Oscar; I knew that I’d be wrong, but I wasn’t sure which way. Happily, my favorite of 2024’s contenders went on a spree, winning five of the six categories it was nominated in. The sands of history will decide how this quasi-sweep is perceived, but in the moment, I’m very pleased for one of the year’s most enjoyable and poignant movies.

Per tradition, let’s run through the categories in their order of presentation and see which ones I messed up: Read More

Oscars 2024: Full List of Predictions

Selena Gomez in Emilia Perez

Tonight’s the big night, so for your convenience, we’re combining all of our predictions in the 20 feature categories at this year’s Oscars into this omnibus post. It’s curious that, while I’m (tentatively) picking Anora to win Best Picture, I’m also pegging it to take just one other prize; if that holds, it would be only the second Best Picture winner to do so since 1952 (along with Spotlight).

Of course, that won’t hold; a number of these picks will be wrong. Last year I went 18-for-20, thanks in part to Oppenheimer’s dominance; I expect to do far worse this time around. Which is cool! Praise be to a suspenseful and unpredictable 97th Academy Awards. (Categories are arranged alphabetically; click on the header link to be taken to our analysis for that specific race.)

Best Actor
Will win: Adrien Brody—The Brutalist (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Ralph Fiennes—Conclave
Worst omission: Glen Powell—Hit Man Read More

Oscars 2024: Best Picture and Best Director

Mikey Madison in Anora; Ralph Fiennes in Conclave

You know what’s cool about this year’s Oscars? They’re uncertain. One could even use the word “exciting”! After back-to-back years of heavy sweeps (by Everything Everywhere All at Once and Oppenheimer), we’re looking at genuine races in a number of major categories, including these two. The suspense is, well, suspenseful. I’m basically guessing in at least five above-the-line fields, and that lack of confidence is oddly freeing.

Fun times. Before we finish our analysis, if you missed our rundowns of the other 18 feature categories at this year’s Academy Awards, you can find them at these links:

The lead actors
The screenplays
The supporting actors
The big techies
The odds and ends

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Jacques Audiard—Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker—Anora
Brady Corbet—The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat—The Substance
James Mangold—A Complete Unknown Read More

Oscars 2024: Best Actor and Best Actress

Demi Moore in The Substance; Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown

We’re saving our analysis of the Best Picture race for tomorrow, but for today, a quick confession: Of all of the Oscar categories that I run through every year—and so far in 2024 we’ve looked at the supporting actors, the screenplays, the big techies, and some odds and ends—the lead acting fields are always my favorite. Not because they’re competitive (though both races this year are more intriguing than typical), but because they yield the ceremonial creation of my own ballots—a torturous annual exercise, but one I find valuable as a historical matter. It’s easy to exclaim that a specific performance was “snubbed,” or to express bewilderment that a certain actor has never been recognized in their entire career. It’s harder, or at least requires more precision, to point to a rigid five-person field in a given year that you assembled and memorialized at the time. So when I declare that Saoirse Ronan should have received nine Oscar nods already, I’m not (just) randomly raving; I also have the (subjective) data to back it up. Take that, internet!

BEST ACTOR

NOMINEES
Adrien Brody—The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet—A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo—Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes—Conclave
Sebastian Stan—The Apprentice Read More

Oscars 2024: The Screenplays

Ralph Fiennes in Conclave; Yura Borisov in Anora

We’re moving right along in our analysis of this year’s Oscars. Having previously weighed in on the supporting actors, plus various below-the-line categories, it’s time to wrestle with the world’s dumbest profession: writing. People get paid to do this? Seems absurd.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
A Complete Unknown—Jay Cocks and James Mangold
Conclave—Peter Straughan
Emilia Pérez—Jacques Audiard
Nickel Boys—RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
Sing Sing—Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, and John “Divine G” Whitfield

WILL WIN
Conclave. No multiple rounds of voting required. Read More