Oscars Analysis 2010: Prediction roundup

Last year, my friend K-Bails told me that she printed out all of my Oscar predictions and scrutinized them while watching the actual telecast. I have no idea why she did this; all I know is that when she told me, it was the proudest moment of my life since I made a game-winning over-the-shoulder catch in my first ever rec league softball game. Moments such as those are all too elusive – you have to treasure them.

Accordingly, I’m consolidating my 2010 predictions in this post for handy reference. Go nuts, K-Bails.

Also, in general, this is one of the more difficult Oscar slates in recent memory, as a number of races are incredibly close, while several others could go a number of ways. As such, I’m supplying a confidence level for each of my predictions, just to illustrate where I’m reasonably comfortable and where I’m completely grasping at straws. Of course, I’ll probably wind up drilling the difficult categories and whiffing on some of the easy ones, but I suppose that would only prove my point (sort of).

Here goes nothing. Categories are listed in order of least to most confident (as always, I’m omitting the shorts):

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Worst snub: Lesley Manville – Another Year

Best Art Direction
Will win: Alice in Wonderland (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Worst snub: Shutter Island

Best Original Score
Will win: The Social Network – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: How to Train Your Dragon – John Powell
Worst snub: Never Let Me Go – Rachel Portman

Best Original Song
Will win: Tangled – “I See the Light” (Alan Menken, Glenn Slater) (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Tangled – “I See the Light” (Alan Menken, Glenn Slater)
Worst snub: The Twilight Saga: Eclipse – “Let’s Get Lost” (Bat for Lashes/Beck)

Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: Biutiful (Mexico) (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Dogtooth (Greece)
Worst snub: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Sweden)

Best Film Editing
Will win: The King’s Speech – Tariq Anwar (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: The Social Network – Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall
Worst snub: Inception – Lee Smith

Best Costume Design
Will win: The King’s Speech (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Alice in Wonderland
Worst snub: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Makeup
Will win: The Wolfman (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: abstain (haven’t seen the remaining nominees)
Worst snub: Let Me In

Best Director
Will win: Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
Worst snub: Christopher Nolan – Inception

Best Cinematography
Will win: True Grit – Roger Deakins (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: True Grit – Roger Deakins
Worst snub: The American – Martin Ruhe

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: Inside Job (confidence: 3/5)
Should win/worst snub: abstain

Best Picture
Will win: The King’s Speech (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Inception
Worst snub: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1

Best Actress
Will win: Natalie Portman – Black Swan (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Worst snub: Tilda Swinton – I Am Love

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Christian Bale – The Fighter (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Christian Bale – The Fighter
Worst snub: Sean Penn – Fair Game

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: The King’s Speech – David Seidler (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Inception – Christopher Nolan
Worst snub: The Square – Joel Edgerton, Matthew Dabner

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: The Social Network – Aaron Sorkin (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: The Social Network – Aaron Sorkin
Worst snub: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 – Steve Kloves

Best Sound Mixing
Will win: Inception (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Inception
Worst snub: Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

Best Sound Editing
Will win: Inception (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Inception
Worst snub: How to Train Your Dragon

Best Actor
Will win: Colin Firth – The King’s Speech (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Worst snub: Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine

Best Visual Effects
Will win: Inception (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Inception
Worst snub: Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

Best Animated Feature
Will win: Toy Story 3 (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Toy Story 3
Worst snub: Tangled

And that’s a wrap. Thanks for following the Manifesto’s 2010 Oscar coverage. As a reward, here is a clip of one of the greatest opening scenes in movie history.