So far in our Oscars analysis, we’ve looked at the technical categories (big and small), the screenplays, and the supporting acting races. Today, we’ll run through the two lead acting categories.
Before getting to the nominees, it’s worth noting that one of these two fields is dramatically deeper than the other this year, and it isn’t the one you’d traditionally expect. Thirteen years ago, in analyzing the acting races for the 2004 Oscars, A.O. Scott lamented that, while one could easily compile an alternative quintet to the five men vying for Best Actor, “no such alternative list present[ed] itself” in the Best Actress field. This disparity stemmed, of course, not from any sort of chromosomal difference in talent between male and female actors but from the regrettable lack of strong leading roles for women.
It would appear—and given that I’m talking about Hollywood, I say this with a measure of skepticism—that things have changed. This year, the Best Actress race is positively loaded, highlighting five exceptional performances while leaving out perhaps a dozen more that merited consideration. On the men’s side, there were still a number of impressive star turns, but it was surely less torturous for Academy members to cull their list to a final five.
Does this mean that Hollywood has solved its diversity problem? Yeah, um, not quite. The majority of big-budget movies still star and are marketed toward men, while the percentage of female directors working in the industry remains appallingly low. But if nothing else, this year’s Best Actress race proves (as if it were in doubt) that Hollywood is loaded with gifted women who can dazzle us when given the chance. With luck, soon more of them will receive the opportunity to display their talents behind the camera as well as in front of it.
On to the Oscars themselves. Let’s lead with the less impressive category:
BEST ACTOR
NOMINEES
Timothée Chalamet—Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis—Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya—Get Out
Gary Oldman—Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington—Roman J. Israel, Esq.
WILL WIN
For awhile, this was shaping up as an intriguing duel between the young upstart (Chalamet) and the cagey veteran (Oldman). No longer. Oldman has been invulnerable on the circuit thus far, and he’ll add another trophy to his case come Oscar night.
SHOULD WIN
Despite racking up awards, Oldman’s brash, blustery performance has earned quite a bit of scorn among critics. I’m not in that camp; it’s a very fun performance, technically impressive and thoroughly watchable. (It’s certainly better than Washington’s, whose aggressive quirkiness is far less persuasive.) But it doesn’t leave much of a mark, certainly not when compared to Chalamet’s confused yearning or Kaluuya’s sickening helplessness. Of course, they’re still mere mortals with the misfortune of competing against a god. I wouldn’t say that Reynolds Woodcock is my favorite Daniel Day-Lewis character, but when you’re choosing between towering portrayals of genius, it is difficult to complain.
THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Claes Bang—The Square
Daniel Day-Lewis—Phantom Thread
Colin Farrell—The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Michael Fassbender—Alien: Covenant
Tom Hanks—The Post
Bang helps modulate The Square, his restraint only amplifying the film’s absurdity. Speaking of restraint, Farrell burrows ever deeper, disappearing into his character’s obsessive need for order. Fassbender positively pulsates with energy and magnetism. Tom Hanks is—wait for it—underrated.
The Manifesto’s winner: Tom Hanks—The Post.
THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Timothée Chalamet—Call Me by Your Name
Tom Cruise—American Made
James Franco—The Disaster Artist
Armie Hammer—Call Me by Your Name
James McAvoy—Split
I didn’t include Hammer on yesterday’s Supporting Actor field because I consider him a co-lead; he and Chalamet complement one another beautifully. Cruise remains one of the most watchable performers in the biz. Franco’s work lacks the desired resonance, but it’s still a blast. McAvoy leaves no scene unchewed.
BEST ACTRESS
NOMINEES
Sally Hawkins—The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie—I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan—Lady Bird
Meryl Streep—The Post
WILL WIN
I’ll be honest: I’m tempted to pick an upset here. The Academy loves ingénues, and this is Ronan’s third nomination already, so voters might decide that it’s her time. But in the end, I can’t bet against McDormand’s credentials, not after she’s won at the BAFTAs, the SAGs, and the Golden Globes.
SHOULD WIN
All of them. But seriously, there’s no wrong pick here; these are five excellent performances. I’m taking Ronan, but only because she’s amazing.
THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Rebecca Hall—Professor Marston and the Wonder Women
Sally Hawkins—The Shape of Water
Jennifer Lawrence—mother!
Aubrey Plaza—Ingrid Goes West
Saoirse Ronan—Lady Bird
To be clear, this was brutal; to paraphrase a line from Get Out, I would have filed three different ballots if I could. Hall is all flaring anger and brittle humanity. Hawkins is deliciously expressive. Lawrence is Lawrence. Plaza goes dark and deep. Ronan stopped my heart.
The Manifesto’s winner: Saoirse Ronan—Lady Bird.
THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Adèle Haenel—The Unknown Girl
Frances McDormand—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Florence Pugh—Lady Macbeth
Margot Robbie—I, Tonya
Meryl Streep—The Post
Haenel is devastatingly quiet. McDormand pulverizes you with her intensity. Pugh deceives character and audience alike. Robbie is entirely credible as Tonya Harding, which, I mean, what the hell. Streep is better at her job than you are at yours.
THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT: THIRD TIER
Vicky Krieps—Phantom Thread
Brooklynn Kimberly Prince—The Florida Project
Haley Lu Richardson—Columbus
Kristen Stewart—Personal Shopper
Anya Taylor-Joy—Split
I’ve been doing this exercise for a rough decade, and I can’t ever remember having to go to a third tier. Such was this year’s bounty. Krieps holds her own against Day-Lewis, something even Leonardo DiCaprio couldn’t do. Prince will make you cry. Richardson embodies suppressed longing. Stewart makes a ridiculous movie mesmerizing. Taylor-Joy matches McAvoy’s flair with coiled intelligence.
Honorable mention (can’t stop won’t stop): Jessica Chastain—Molly’s Game; Garance Marillier—Raw; Elizabeth Olsen—Wind River; Kiernan Shipka—The Blackcoat’s Daughter; Emma Stone—Battle of the Sexes; Charlize Theron—Atomic Blonde; Emma Watson—The Circle.
(By the way: Yes, I recognize how disturbingly white these ballots are. Let’s just say that marginalizing women isn’t Hollywood’s only problem.)
Coming tomorrow: A look at the final two categories, Best Director and Best Picture, plus a roundup of all our predictions.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.