Oscars Analysis 2009: The Screenplays
Now we’re getting somewhere. Having dispensed with the technical categories (in somewhat brisk fashion, I might add), we now move on to what I call the “Big Eight”. Why? Because they’re big – as in important – and there are eight of them. But seriously, while I concede that the majority of film fans aren’t particularly interested in fields such as Sound Editing and Art Direction, I’ll posit that even casual moviegoers may hold a vested interest in the winners of the Big Eight. First up are the screenplays (adapted and original), and they present quite a contrast this year, at least in terms of predicting the winner. One category features a surefire champion, while the other represents the most intriguing competition of all of Oscar-night.
Before I get to the analysis, I want to introduce a new feature of the Manifesto, unique to the Big Eight, called “My Ideal Ballot”. Loyal readers (hi Dad!) will know that in addition to the standard “Will Win” and “Should Win” analyses, I generally include a “Deserving” section, where I enumerate other high-quality contenders that failed to receive a nomination. I’ll continue on that tack, but with “My Ideal Ballot”, I’ll be limiting myself to five choices (including the actual nominees). The theoretical goal is answer a simple hypothetical: If I were an Academy member, what/whom would I nominate? It’s relatively easy to excoriate Oscar voters for their poor cinematic judgment, but I imagine it will be somewhat more difficult to place similar restrictions on my own analysis. We shall see.
Alright, let’s get to it. Read More