Oscars Analysis 2012: Prediction roundup

For your annotated pleasure, below are the Manifesto’s official predictions for the 85th Academy Awards. I strongly recommend printing the list out and following it while watching tonight’s telecast – it will allow you to make fun of me that much more quickly when these predictions turn to dust.

One note: I’m changing my prediction for Best Adapted Screenplay from Lincoln to Argo. I made my initial pick way back on January 27, just after Argo had won at the Producers’ Guild and before its momentum really got rolling. Since then, the movie has cleaned up everything in sight, including a critical win with the Writers’ Guild, which has correctly forecast seven of the past eight Oscar winners for Best Adapted Screenplay. I still think Tony Kushner’s more visible screenwriting has a chance to take home the gold, but I’d be foolish not to back Argo at this point.

On to the picks, organized by level of confidence. Remember, I’m omitting the three short categories because I’m as knowledgeable about them as I am about cooking.

Best Actress
Will win: Emmanuelle Riva – Amour (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Worst snub: Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone

Best Director
Will win: Steven Spielberg – Lincoln (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Worst snub: Joe Wright – Anna Karenina

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Worst snub: Cloud Atlas

Best Sound Editing
Will win: Life of Pi (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
Worst snub: Wreck-It Ralph

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Argo – Chris Terrio (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Silver Linings Playbook – David O. Russell
Worst snub: The Dark Knight Rises – Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan

Best Original Score
Will win: Life of Pi – Mychael Danna (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Anna Karenina – Dario Marianelli
Worst snub: Beasts of the Southern Wild – Benh Zeitlin, Dan Romer

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
Worst snub: Looper – Rian Johnson

Best Sound Mixing
Will win: Les Misérables (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Skyfall
Worst snub: Wreck-It Ralph

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
Worst snub: Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained

Best Animated Feature
Will win: Wreck-It Ralph (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Wreck-It Ralph
Worst snub: The Secret World of Arrietty

Best Costume Design
Will win: Anna Karenina (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Anna Karenina
Worst snub: Farewell, My Queen

Best Film Editing
Will win: Argo – William Goldenberg (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Argo – William Goldenberg
Worst snub: Cloud Atlas – Alexander Berner

Best Production Design
Will win: Anna Karenina (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Anna Karenina
Worst snub: Cloud Atlas

Best Cinematography
Will win: Life of Pi – Claudio Miranda (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Anna Karenina – Seamus McGarvey
Worst snub: Moonrise Kingdom – Robert D. Yeoman

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: Searching for Sugar Man (confidence: 4/5)
Should win/worst snub: [abstain]

Best Original Song
Will win: Skyfall – “Skyfall” (Adele Adkins, Paul Epworth) (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Skyfall – “Skyfall” (Adele Adkins, Paul Epworth)
Worst snub: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey – “Misty Mountains” (Howard Shore)

Best Picture
Will win: Argo (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
Worst snub: Looper

Best Actor
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Worst snub: Jean-Louis Trintignant – Amour

Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: Amour (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: [abstain]
Worst snub: Headhunters

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Anne Hathaway – Les Misérables (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Worst snub: Emma Watson – The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Best Visual Effects
Will win: Life of Pi (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Life of Pi
Worst snub: John Carter