Jeremy Beck

Atonement

Juno

Michael Clayton

No Country for Old Men

There Will Be Blood

Will win: The consensus among pundits regarding this year’s Oscars is that, with the exceptions of the Best Actor and Supporting Actor categories, there are few prevailing favorites. Historically, this isn’t really anything new. There hasn’t been a true Secretariat at the Oscars since Return of the King pulled a ’72 Dolphins and went 11-for-11 in 2003. (Of course, it didn’t win Best Cinematography because it wasn’t even fucking nominated. And yes, I’m fairly sure I’m harboring more resentment about that than anyone involved in photographing the movie. Anyway.) Read More

Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Ethan Coen & Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men

Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

Jason Reitman, Juno

Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Will win: If the Best Picture race is relatively crowded, the competition for Best Director is far less cluttered. Schnabel’s nomination is further evidence of the Academy’s bizarre, almost obnoxious recent tendency to nominate foreign filmmakers for Best Director while refusing to acknowledge their movie for Best Picture. It’s almost as if the voters are saying, “Well, we all know English-language movies are the only kind deserving of top honors, but those guys who speak funny languages sure try hard enough, so let’s throw them a bone and nominate them for Best Director, since we know they’ll never win”. It’s now happened three times in the past six years, with Fernando Meirelles (for City of God) and Almodóvar (for Talk to Her) the other victims. The weirdest part: None of three films was even nominated for Best Foreign Language Film, much less Best Picture. And you wonder why I accuse the Academy of making no sense. Read More

George Clooney, Michael Clayton

Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah

Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Will win: This one’s a gimme. Both of the male acting awards this year are relative locks, even if they shouldn’t be. Of course, Brokeback Mountain was supposed to be a lock too, but I’ll take my chances on this one. Daniel Day-Lewis has pulled a Dominik Hasek so far this awards season; he’s taken home sixteen trophies and hasn’t lost once. Initially I was thinking Clooney would stand a chance because Michael Clayton has been so well-received overall, but Day-Lewis has debunked that theory with extreme prejudice. Clooney himself has already conceded that Day-Lewis will win, quipping, “He sort of irritates us all because he’s so good”. This proves two things we already knew: A) Daniel Day-Lewis is going to win his second Oscar, and B) George Clooney is freaking awesome. Read More

Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Julie Christie, Away from Her

Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose

Laura Linney, The Savages

Ellen Page, Juno

Will win: Someone seems to be missing, no? Settle down, we’ll get to that. Anyway, women are complicated, and handicapping this year’s Best Actress race is considerably more difficult than it is for Best Actor. (Makes me miss Helen Mirren; I know my buddy Johnny will miss her chest.) Fortunately, we can eliminate two right away. Cate Blanchett’s second nomination as Queen Elizabeth (bit of trivia: She’s the only actress to be nominated twice for playing the same character) strikes me as a “Barry Bonds court report” level typo – I’m absolutely convinced she’s on the ballot as the result of a clerical era. I really hope she isn’t turning into a younger, infinitely hotter Judi Dench who gets nominated every year just based on her reputation. Regardless, she has as much chance of winning this year’s Best Actress Oscar as Ron Artest has of winning the NBA’s Citizenship Award. Read More

Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War

Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild

Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Will win: As with Best Actor, this one’s easy. Javier Bardem has already compiled 18 other nominations as the plodding, merciless serial killer Anton Chigurh, winning 17 times (his only loss came to Casey Affleck at the Satellite Awards, whatever those are). The only potential obstacle is if voters are afraid he’ll slip into the Killer Voice and terrify the audience with his acceptance speech. I can totally see him limping up to the stage with that creepy smile, then addressing the remaining nominees: “You should admit your situation; there would be more dignity in it.” Yikes. My Buddy Al told me that after watching the trailer for No Country for Old Men one too many times, he starting talking in the Killer Voice and eventually freaked out his entire family as well as himself. I doubt he’s alone. Still, I’ll risk it and take Bardem. Read More