Oscars 2013: Best Actress

NOMINEES
Amy Adams—American Hustle
Cate Blanchett—Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock—Gravity
Judi Dench—Philomena
Meryl Streep—August: Osage County

WILL WIN
Blanchett was supposed to take this in a walkover of “Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables” proportions. But then, Dylan Farrow, whom Woody Allen adopted as his daughter when he was married to Mia Farrow in the 1980s, penned an open letter accusing Allen of sexually assaulting her in 1992, when she was seven years old. Allen responded, flatly denying the allegations. Read More

Oscars 2013: The best of the rest (from Animated Feature to Makeup)

The 86th Academy Awards are a week away, and the Manifesto still needs to analyze the big four categories of Best Actor, Actress, Director, and Picture. Before that, however, we need to weed through the remaining races that we’ve yet to cover. These may not be the sexiest categories, but the winners get a statuette all the same, and the Manifesto prides itself on completeness.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

NOMINEES
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises Read More

Oscars 2013: Best Supporting Actress

I typically analyze this category early in my Oscar predictions, but the race is so uncertain this year that I wanted to wait until after the BAFTAs so I had much information as possible. Now, we’re nine days away from the telecast, and I’m still clueless. Typical.

NOMINEES
Sally Hawkins—Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence—American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o—12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts—August: Osage County
June Squibb—Nebraska Read More

Oscars 2013: Feeling Gravity’s Pull

For such a critically and commercially successful film, Gravity has become weirdly polarizing. One camp of viewers seems to have found it technically stunning but narratively lacking, while the other camp was completely seduced by its marriage of jaw-dropping craftsmanship and intimate storytelling. Yet as much discussion as Gravity has generated, few people seem to actively dislike it; those denigrating it tend to frame their feedback as less absolute (“It was a bad movie”) than relative (“It was a good movie, but …”). That’s because, ignoring the physicists carping about the film’s alleged lack of aeronautical realism, audiences seem to have reached consensus that the technical aspects of Alfonso Cuarón’s space thriller are objectively astonishing. People may have quibbled with Gravity‘s story, but there’s no disputing its skill. Or, to cast the debate in the somewhat archaic language of cinematic snobbery: Not everyone necessarily thinks Gravity is a good film, but virtually everyone agrees that it’s a good movie.

And this makes its Oscar candidacy absolutely fascinating. The Academy Awards have never been shy about honoring technically superlative features that achieved box-office stardom; Star Wars won six Oscars, while Terminator 2: Judgment Day, Peter Jackson’s King Kong, The Matrix, and Inception all won four. Hell, even Avatar and The Bourne Ultimatum—which is about as unpretentious as mainstream movies get—took home three Oscars apiece. But rarely do such smash hits double as high art, and while those seven movies combined for 28 Oscars, exactly zero came in major categories (i.e., Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, or any of the acting fields). So, although the Academy is more than happy to invite fantastical blockbusters to its party, it generally keeps them at the kids’ table. Read More

Oscars 2013: Best Adapted Screenplay

NOMINEES
Before Midnight—Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater
Captain Phillips—Billy Ray
Philomena—Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope
12 Years a Slave—John Ridley
The Wolf of Wall Street—Terence Winter

WILL WIN
Bellwether alert: The last four times the eventual Best Picture winner competed in this category (i.e., it wasn’t the product of an original screenplay), it scooped up this ancillary prize as well. Variance does happen—Million Dollar Baby, Chicago, and The English Patient all came up short here before winning the pageant—but the surest technique in predicting this category is to just ride the coattails of the frontrunner. Read More