Oscars 2013: Nomination prediction results

Jeremy BeckOscars

Winging it, as it turns out, just might suit me. This was the Manifesto’s third year predicting the Oscar nominations in 13 different categories, and after hitting on just 50 of 69 picks each of the past two years (a thoroughly mediocre 72%), this year’s total jumped to 59 of 69 (a far more palatable 86%). I could attribute my success to the Academy’s predictability (though voters did still provide two stunners). Or, I could congratulate myself on my extraordinary intuition, even at the risk of squandering half my readership in the process.

You know what? Screw it:

Sorry, I couldn’t resist. But to be fair, the nominations themselves are just the appetizer. I still need to predict the actual winners prior to the March 2 telecast, and my recent track record in that regard—I correctly pegged just 14 of 21 categories each of the past two years—is hardly worth gloating about. To paraphrase the immortal Cadillac Williams, I may have won the war, but the battle isn’t over. (Or, if you prefer the acerbic poetry of Harvey Keitel in Pulp Fiction, “Let’s not start sucking each other’s dicks quite yet.”)

So, as always, the Manifesto still has work to do. With that in mind, let’s take a look at how things shook out with Thursday morning’s announcement (incorrect picks are in red): Read More

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Oscars 2013: Nomination Predictions

Jeremy BeckOscars

“Winging it” has never been my strength. I believe in data, in probability, in hard science. I believe that decision-making is a process of ruthless optimization, whereby one weighs the relevant costs and benefits before selecting the appropriate option. I believe in regression to the mean, the unimpeachable truth of mathematics, and the Gambler’s Fallacy. And I generally believe that, if you think rationally about a question long enough, you can arrive at the correct answer. It’s why I spend hours crafting email-screeds to my friends railing about atrocious decisions in sports, like Mike McCarthy choosing to kick the extra point in a two-point game with 11 minutes left, or John Farrell bringing Brayan Villarreal into a tie game
with the bases loaded in the ninth inning while Koji Uehara plays Scrabble in the bullpen. It’s also why my friends in Colorado lovingly (loathingly?) refer to me as a robot. Much like the sneering spice merchant in Game of Thrones, I trust in logic, not passion.

Of course, that spice merchant got his fucking throat cut, suggesting that logic can only get you so far. And really, predicting the Oscars has always been more art than science. As tempting as it can be to pore over the list of winners from, say, the St. Louis Gateway Film Critics Association and attempt to form a conclusion about The Great Gatsby‘s odds of landing a Best Production Design nomination, in the end, I’m never going to be able peer into the collective psyche of the 6,000-plus members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and learn what the hell they’re thinking. Plus, I just started recapping each of the 92 movies I watched in 2013, so I haven’t been able to delve into the nitty-gritty of the Oscar race with my usual demented zeal. Read More

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The Unmemorables: 2013’s Least Memorable Movies, from Assange to Smaug (Part I)

Jeremy BeckFeatures

About a year ago, film critic Scott Tobias wrote a piece called “The ‘Gentleman’s F’ and the Scourge of Deliberate Mediocrity”. His thesis was that “bad movies are better than useless ones”, and while I don’t necessarily agree with his specific examples, I can see his overarching point. Bad movies may be horribly executed, but at least they’re distinctive and, in their own way, defiantly memorable. Useless movies, on the other hand, are bland, slothful, and scrupulously inoffensive. They’re rarely bad enough to induce anger, but neither are they good enough to inspire debate. They are simply consumed and then discarded, and to the extent that I remember them, it’s with the wistful knowledge that in watching them, I basically wasted two hours of my life.

And so, the following collective represents 2013’s Unmemorables: the Manifesto’s view of the least memorable movies of the year. None of these films is truly terrible—a few are even mildly enjoyable, at least in part—but they produced nothing in the way of an emotional response, be it love or loathing. I simply watched them, and then I forgot about them. And such ambivalence is, in its own quiet way, a more damning reaction than outright rage.

So here’s to the cinematic sinners who sinned by not trying. In alphabetical order: Read More

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The Worst Movies of 2013: Man of Steel, and Other Atrocities

Jeremy BeckFeatures

The greatest advantage of being an amateur movie critic rather than a professional is simple: I’m not forced to see movies that I don’t actually want to see. True, I dutifully attempt to see every movie nominated for an Oscar, which occasionally induces a sense of obligation (did I really Netflix a French animated film called A Cat in Paris?), but for the most part, I watch movies because I want to, not because I’m paid to. So, until the Mr. Provis of the technology generation bestows the Manifesto with his generosity and turns this wee blog into a for-profit enterprise (note to silent benefactors: I’m still available), I can continue to avoid the truly execrable pictures that litter the multiplex each year.

As a result, I can’t possibly pretend to author a list of the actual worst movies of 2013, as I exercised my discretion and passed on such supposed fiascos as The Big Wedding, Grown Ups 2, and Movie 43. I can, however, denigrate the small sampling of this year’s films that I actively disliked. Given my selectivity, it’s a predictably short list: As of this writing, I’ve seen 85 theatrical releases in 2013, and I only found the following eight to be genuinely contemptible. There’s assuredly more dross out there, but for now, you’ll have to settle for me warning you away from these wretched offerings. In no particular order: Read More

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