Oscars 2017: Prediction Roundup

James D'Arcy and Kenneth Branagh in "Dunkirk"

With all of our category-specific analysis in the books, here are each of the Manifesto’s predictions for the 21 feature categories at this year’s Oscars. (Sorry, I ignore the shorts.)

Best Actor
Will win
: Gary Oldman—Darkest Hour (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis—Phantom Thread
Worst omission: Tom Hanks—The Post

Best Actress
Will win: Frances McDormand—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Saoirse Ronan—Lady Bird
Worst omission: Jennifer Lawrence—mother! Read More

Oscars 2017: Best Director and Best Picture

Sam Rockwell and Frances McDormand in "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

In analyzing this year’s Oscars, we’ve already tackled 19 of the 21 feature categories in the following posts:

The little techies
The big techies
The supporting actors and the screenplays
The lead actors

Once more unto the breach:

BEST DIRECTOR

NOMINEES
Paul Thomas Anderson—Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro—The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig—Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan—Dunkirk
Jordan Peele—Get Out
Read More

Oscars 2017: Best Actor and Best Actress

Gary Oldman, set to finally win an Oscar for "Darkest Hour"

So far in our Oscars analysis, we’ve looked at the technical categories (big and small), the screenplays, and the supporting acting races. Today, we’ll run through the two lead acting categories.

Before getting to the nominees, it’s worth noting that one of these two fields is dramatically deeper than the other this year, and it isn’t the one you’d traditionally expect. Thirteen years ago, in analyzing the acting races for the 2004 Oscars, A.O. Scott lamented that, while one could easily compile an alternative quintet to the five men vying for Best Actor, “no such alternative list present[ed] itself” in the Best Actress field. This disparity stemmed, of course, not from any sort of chromosomal difference in talent between male and female actors but from the regrettable lack of strong leading roles for women.

It would appear—and given that I’m talking about Hollywood, I say this with a measure of skepticism—that things have changed. This year, the Best Actress race is positively loaded, highlighting five exceptional performances while leaving out perhaps a dozen more that merited consideration. On the men’s side, there were still a number of impressive star turns, but it was surely less torturous for Academy members to cull their list to a final five.

Does this mean that Hollywood has solved its diversity problem? Yeah, um, not quite. The majority of big-budget movies still star and are marketed toward men, while the percentage of female directors working in the industry remains appallingly low. But if nothing else, this year’s Best Actress race proves (as if it were in doubt) that Hollywood is loaded with gifted women who can dazzle us when given the chance. With luck, soon more of them will receive the opportunity to display their talents behind the camera as well as in front of it.

On to the Oscars themselves. Let’s lead with the less impressive category: Read More

Oscars 2017: The supporting actors and the screenplays

Allison Janney, a likely Oscar winner for "I, Tonya"

Having previously looked at the technical categories, both big and small, we’re now moving on to the heavy hitters in this year’s Oscars:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
Call Me by Your Name—James Ivory
The Disaster Artist—Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
Logan—Scott Frank, James Mangold, and Michael Green
Molly’s Game—Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound—Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Read More

Oscars 2017: The big techies

A scene from the visually stunning "Blade Runner 2049"

With the Oscars on Sunday, we’re running through our predictions and preferences for all 21 feature categories. Yesterday, we looked at eight below-the-line fields; today, we’re continuing with some more high-profile technical categories. And by “high-profile” I mean “ones I care about”.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

NOMINEES
Blade Runner 2049—Roger Deakins
Darkest Hour—Bruno Delbonnel
Dunkirk—Hoyte van Hoytema
Mudbound—Rachel Morrison
The Shape of Water—Dan Laustsen
Read More