Oscars 2017: Prediction Roundup

With all of our category-specific analysis in the books, here are each of the Manifesto’s predictions for the 21 feature categories at this year’s Oscars. (Sorry, I ignore the shorts.)

Best Actor
Will win: Gary Oldman—Darkest Hour (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis—Phantom Thread
Worst omission: Tom Hanks—The Post

Best Actress
Will win: Frances McDormand—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Saoirse Ronan—Lady Bird
Worst omission: Jennifer Lawrence—mother!

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Call Me by Your Name—James Ivory (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Molly’s Game—Aaron Sorkin
Worst omission: Wonder Woman—Allan Heinberg

Best Animated Feature
Will win: Coco (confidence: 5/5)

Best Cinematography
Will win: Blade Runner 2049—Roger Deakins (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Blade Runner 2049—Roger Deakins
Worst omission: The Lost City of Z—Darius Khondji

Best Costume Design
Will win: Phantom Thread (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Phantom Thread
Worst omission: The Great Wall

Best Director
Will win: Guillermo del Toro—The Shape of Water (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Christopher Nolan—Dunkirk
Worst omission: Denis Villeneuve—Blade Runner 2049

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: Faces Places (confidence: 1/5)

Best Film Editing
Will win: Dunkirk—Lee Smith (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Dunkirk—Lee Smith
Worst omission: Lady Bird—Nick Houy

Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: A Fantastic Woman (Chile) (confidence: 2/5)
Worst omission: The Villainess (South Korea)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: Darkest Hour (confidence: 5/5)

Best Original Score
Will win: Phantom Thread—Jonny Greenwood (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Dunkirk—Hans Zimmer
Worst omission: Wonderstruck—Carter Burwell

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri—Martin McDonagh (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Lady Bird—Greta Gerwig
Worst omission: Dunkirk—Christopher Nolan

Best Original Song
Will win: Coco—“Remember Me” (Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez) (confidence: 2/5)

Best Picture
Will win: The Shape of Water (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Lady Bird
Worst omission: War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Production Design
Will win: The Shape of Water (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Blade Runner 2049
Worst omission: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

Best Sound Editing
Will win: Dunkirk (confidence: 2/5)

Best Sound Mixing
Will win: Dunkirk (confidence: 2/5)

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Sam Rockwell—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Woody Harrelson—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Worst omission: Idris Elba—Molly’s Game

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Allison Janney—I, Tonya (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Laurie Metcalf—Lady Bird
Worst omission: Sofia Boutella—Atomic Blonde

Best Visual Effects
Will win: Blade Runner 2049 (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Worst omission: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets