Oscars 2013: Prediction roundup

I wrote earlier that, as obsessively as I analyze the Oscars, I tend not to care who actually wins. This year, that’s true with the exception of two categories: Best Original Screenplay and—much to my amazement—Best Original Song. If my preferred nominee fails to scoop the statuette in those areas, you’ll likely hear my wail of anguish all the way from suburban Denver. Otherwise, I’m looking forward to a competitive, unpredictable night.

Below you’ll find my predictions in each of the 21 feature categories (as always, I’m declining to predict the three shorts). The predictions are organized by level of confidence, so for the first four, I advise you to pick something else in your pool.

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: The Act of Killing (confidence: 1/5)
Should win/worst snub: [abstain]

Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: The Great Beauty (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: [abstain]
Worst snub: Blue Is the Warmest Color

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Her—Spike Jonze (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Her—Spike Jonze
Worst snub: Inside Llewyn Davis—Joel Coen, Ethan Coen

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence—American Hustle (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Jennifer Lawrence—American Hustle
Worst snub: Emma Watson—The Bling Ring

Best Costume Design
Will win: The Great Gatsby (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: American Hustle
Worst snub: Blue Jasmine

Best Film Editing
Will win: Gravity—Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Captain Phillips—Christopher Rouse
Worst snub: Disconnect—Lee Percy, Kevin Tent

Best Picture
Will win: 12 Years a Slave (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Her
Worst snub: The Spectacular Now

Best Production Design
Will win: The Great Gatsby (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: The Great Gatsby
Worst snub: Oblivion

Best Actor
Will win: Matthew McConaughey—Dallas Buyers Club (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Leonardo DiCaprio—The Wolf of Wall Street
Worst snub: Tom Hanks—Captain Phillips

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: 12 Years a Slave—John Ridley (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Before Midnight—Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater
Worst snub: The Spectacular Now—Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber

Best Original Score
Will win: Gravity—Steven Price (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Her—William Butler, Owen Pallett (aka Arcade Fire)
Worst snub: Oblivion—M83

Best Original Song
Will win: Frozen—”Let It Go” (Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez) (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Frozen—”Let It Go” (Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez)
Worst snub: The Great Gatsby—”Young and Beautiful” (Lana del Rey)

Best Cinematography
Will win: Gravity—Emmanuel Lubezki (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Gravity—Emmanuel Lubezki
Worst snub: 12 Years a Slave—Sean Bobbitt

Best Director
Will win: Alfonso Cuarón—Gravity (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Alfonso Cuarón—Gravity
Worst snub: Spike Jonze—Her

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: Dallas Buyers Club (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: [abstain]
Worst snub: American Hustle

Best Sound Mixing
Will win: Gravity (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Gravity
Worst snub: Frozen

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Jared Leto—Dallas Buyers Club (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Michael Fassbender—12 Years a Slave
Worst snub: Sam Rockwell—The Way, Way Back

Best Actress
Will win: Cate Blanchett—Blue Jasmine (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Cate Blanchett—Blue Jasmine
Worst snub: Adèle Exarchopoulos—Blue Is the Warmest Color

Best Animated Feature
Will win: Frozen (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Frozen
Worst snub: Monsters University

Best Sound Editing
Will win: Gravity (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Gravity
Worst snub: Her

Best Visual Effects
Will win: Gravity (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Gravity
Worst snub: Pacific Rim