Who’s going to host this year’s Oscars? Who cares? True, for some viewers, the Academy Awards are more about the pageantry—the glamour, the outfits, the sheer mass of hundreds of celebrities piling into a single auditorium—than the movies. But for me, to the extent the Oscars matter at all—and they do matter, probably more than we’d like to admit—it’s the way they function as a snapshot of film history. Sure, they’re a ceremony of self-congratulation, but they’re also a statement about the particular cinematic values that the Academy holds at this moment in time.
Does that mean that the Oscars function as some sort of objective arbiter of filmmaking quality? Of course not. But even if it’s silly to get too worked up about which movies win Oscars and which don’t—the upsets! the snubs!—the awards themselves are still worth analyzing and remembering. That’s why, each year, the Manifesto devotes some brief time to covering the Oscars. We’re beginning today with our predictions for the nominations, which will be announced tomorrow. We’ll follow that up with some quick reactions to those nominations on Tuesday, followed by some category-specific analysis in the coming weeks.
Let’s get to it:
BEST PICTURE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
Comments: 2018 has been a fascinating year from an awards perspective, because no pure frontrunner has really emerged. (For the most part, this is a good thing; it makes the Oscars more unpredictable, which in turn makes them more fun.) That’s why the only genuine locks here are Roma and A Star Is Born, though I’m fairly confident in BlacKkKlansman and The Favourite as well. Green Book HAD been a lock before this happened, but I still think it gets in comfortably. (Update: On Saturday night, Green Book won the top prize at the Producers’ Guild Awards, so it’s now in for certain.) The entire internet might riot if Black Panther doesn’t show up, so it’s probably safe. And while critics were generally sour on Vice, it’s likely performed well enough on the precursor circuit—including nominations at the Golden Globes and the PGA—to crack the field.
My two biggest question marks are Bohemian Rhapsody and If Beale Street Could Talk. Remember that the Best Picture process is weird: To obtain a nomination, a movie must rank #1 on at least 5% of all voters’ preferential ballots, and the final field can contain anywhere from 5 to 10 films. Bohemian Rhapsody clearly has broad appeal, but does 1/20th of the Academy really think it was the best movie of the year? Conversely, Beale Street is hardly a power player at the box office, but could its quiet fury gain a foothold with a chunk of the Academy’s newish, more diverse membership? In the end, I’m betting on both cracking the final lineup. (Note that, since the Oscars switched to a floating field in 2011, there have always been either 8 or 9 nominees; this year, with a limited number of heavy hitters around to soak up #1 votes, betting on 9 feels right.)
Potential upsets: Crazy Rich Asians is the kind of populist hit that could sneak in, but I suspect that Black Panther has already occupied that spot. First Man proved to be a bigger hit with critics than with audiences, so it’ll likely be relegated to a few technical nominations. Mary Poppins Returns’ major awards prospects seemed to die on arrival, and with A Star Is Born already in place, musical fans won’t feel compelled to double-dip.
Longshots: Eighth Grade (generally adored, but not much momentum on the circuit); Leave No Trace (ibid); Widows (has pockets of defenders, but never gained critical mass); First Reformed (same, although the people who like this movie really, really love it).
BEST DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper—A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón—Roma
Peter Farrelly—Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos—The Favourite
Spike Lee—BlacKkKlansman
Comments: Cooper, Cuarón, and Lee are all locks. The Directors’ Guild went with Farrelly and Vice’s Adam McKay; it’s entirely possible that the Academy synchronizes perfectly with the guild, but I’m betting on one interloper showing up. Who that interloper might be is anybody’s guess, but I’ll pick Lanthimos as my duck horse.
Potential upsets: Besides McKay, it’s never safe to count out helmers of potential Best Picture nominees, which means we should keep our eyes on Ryan Coogler for Black Panther, Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk, and [director redacted] for Bohemian Rhapsody (OK not really).
Longshots: Damien Chazelle for First Man; Steve McQueen for Widows; Paul Schrader for First Reformed (landing an Oscar nomination just a few years after making that Lindsay Lohan movie would be quite something); Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War (hey AMC Westminster, feel free to screen this movie at any time).
BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close—The Wife
Olivia Colman—The Favourite
Viola Davis—Widows
Lady Gaga—A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy—Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Comments: Close and Gaga are locks; so is Colman, who for whatever reason has been dubbed “the lead” of the three actresses in The Favourite. (Fact-check: They’re all leads.) I’m reasonably confident in McCarthy as well. My wildcard here is Davis; she’s well-liked and delivered a blistering performance, but the Academy could just as easily look elsewhere, whether to Yalitza Aparicio for Roma or Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns.
Potential upsets: In addition to Aparicio and Blunt, keep your eyes on Elsie Fisher for Eighth Grade, along with Toni Collette for Hereditary.
Longshots: Felicity Jones for On the Basis of Sex (did anyone actually see this movie?); Nicole Kidman for Destroyer (hey, I just saw this movie!); Julia Roberts for Ben Is Back (big year for her); Regina Hall for Support the Girls (wishful thinking); Saoirse Ronan for Mary Queen of Scots (sigh).
BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale—Vice
Bradley Cooper—A Star Is Born
Ethan Hawke—First Reformed
Rami Malek—Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen—Green Book
Comments: Bale and Malek are in, and I don’t see Cooper missing out, given the general power of A Star Is Born. Green Book has curiously positioned Mortensen as its lead while bumping Mahershala Ali to supporting, which won’t exactly quell the clamor surrounding its racial politics. (For the record, while Green Book certainly has its problems, Mortensen is pretty damn great in it.) That leaves Hawke, and while he would seem to be an outsider pick, he’s racked up a ton of precursor wins (at least 18 by my count); those critics’ groups don’t necessarily overlap with the Academy, but it’s hard to ignore how much acclaim he’s already received.
Potential upsets: The obvious candidate is John David Washington for BlacKkKlansman, as he scored a nod with the Screen Actors’ Guild. I’ve also heard rumblings about Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate, but I’m skeptical that the Van Gogh biopic gained sufficient visibility.
Longshots: Robert Redford for The Old Man & the Gun (for old times’ sake?); Ryan Gosling for First Man (we underrate this dude); one of the leads from the little-seen Laurel & Hardy flick called Stan & Ollie (either Steve Coogan or John C. Reilly).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams—Vice
Claire Foy—First Man
Regina King—If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone—The Favourite
Rachel Weisz—The Favourite
Comments: King is a lock, while Adams should cruise to her seventh sixth nomination. (Yes, I’m still bitter about her exclusion for Arrival.) As for Stone and Weisz, it’s always dicey to pick two actors from the same movie, but the overall field is thin this year, so I think both make the cut. (Once again: There are no supporting actresses in The Favourite, they’re all leads.) My shakiest pick is Foy, as First Man has all but evaporated from the year-end conversation this year, but I think the film’s fans will rally around her.
Potential upsets: The two most obvious candidates both earned nods with SAG: Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place and Margot Robbie for Mary Queen of Scots. Of those two, Blunt probably has the better odds.
Longshots: Elizabeth Debicki for Widows; Michelle Yeoh for Crazy Rich Asians.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali—Green Book
Timothée Chalamet—Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver—BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott—A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant—Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Comments: The category fraud epidemic is downright obscene this year—neither Ali nor Chalamet is in any way a “supporting” actor in their respective films—but so it goes. This is the one field where I’m matching up precisely with SAG.
Potential upsets: Nothing likely.
Longshots: Ben Foster for Leave No Trace (he’ll likely be considered a lead); Michael B. Jordan for Black Panther (because he’s clearly the best thing about a Best Picture nominee); Hugh Grant for Paddington 2 (fun!); Lin-Manuel Miranda for Mary Poppins Returns.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Favourite— Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
Green Book— Nick
Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly
Roma—Alfonso Cuarón
Sorry to Bother You—Boots Riley
Vice—Adam McKay
Comments: With screenplays, when in doubt, just stick with the Best Picture nominees; ergo, Green Book, The Favourite, Roma, and Vice are all in good shape. My chancy pick here is Sorry to Bother You; Riley’s script is outrageously inventive, so I’m betting that it will appeal to voters hungry to reward an exciting new voice.
Potential upsets: My big omission here is Eighth Grade. It earned a nod with the Writers’ Guild (Sorry to Bother You was ineligible), but I feel like most of its acclaim has centered around Elsie Fisher’s performance rather than Bo Burnham’s script.
Longshots: A Quiet Place (also scored a WGA nod); Bohemian Rhapsody (potential Best Picture nominee, so it can’t be counted out); First Reformed (it’s certainly original).
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Black Panther—Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole
BlacKkKlansman—Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?—Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk—Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born—Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters
Comments: Four more potential Best Picture candidates, plus the fifth nominee at the guild. Sometimes, this Oscar stuff isn’t that complicated.
Potential upsets: If Debra Granik’s excellent Leave No Trace is going to show up anywhere, this is probably the spot.
Longshots: Widows? First Man? The Death of Stalin?!?
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Favourite—Robbie Ryan
First Man—Linus Sandgren
If Beale Street Could Talk—James Laxton
Roma—Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born—Matthew Libatique
Comments: Roma is a lock. Beyond that, five movies are fighting for four spots. The one I’m leaving out is Cold War, which is supposedly beautiful (once again, AMC Westminster, I will pay you to see this movie). I was tempted to pick it in place of A Star Is Born, but it’s just so rare to see a heavy-hitting Best Picture candidate not score a nomination for its cinematography. Beale Street may be on shakier ground.
Potential upsets: Cold War.
Longshots: Nah.
BEST FILM EDITING
BlacKkKlansman—Barry Alexander Brown
First Man—Tom Cross
Green Book—Patrick J. Don Vito
Roma—Alfonso Cuarón and Adam Gough
A Star Is Born—Jay
Cassidy
Comments: Roma and A Star Is Born are safe, but beyond that, this could get ugly. This category has skewed technical in recent years (hell, The Bourne Ultimatum actually won), which is why I think First Man shows up. After that, I’m really just picking a few random Best Picture contenders. BlacKkKlansman had that amazing cross-cutting sequence, which should give it a boost here. As for Green Book, well, it might actually win Best Picture, so I’ll throw it into my final five.
Potential upsets: Again, any of the remaining Best Picture candidates has a legitimately valid shot here. If I had to rank them I’d go as follows: The Favourite, If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther.
Longshots: You mean something besides the five entirely plausible upsets?
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Black Panther— Ludwig Göransson
First Man—Justin Hurwitz
If Beale Street Could Talk—Nicholas Britell
Isle of Dogs—Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns—Marc Shaiman
Comments: UH OH. I’m pretty confident in Beale Street, but beyond that? Yikes. Well, I’ve committed to First Man as my “Technically stunning movie that gets relegated to the below-the-line categories” pick for this year, so I’ll stick with that here. Desplat is beloved in the industry, which gives Isle of Dogs a leg up. Mary Poppins Returns may not have terrific music, but it sure has lots of it. As for Black Panther, why not?
Potential upsets: BlacKkKlansman.
Longshots: Oh who the hell knows.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
The Favourite
First Man
Roma
Comments: The Favourite, First Man, and Roma should all be safe. The first Fantastic Beasts movie actually won this award two years ago, so that bodes well for its sequel. And Black Panther was the biggest movie of the year, with perhaps the most recognizable fake location in Wakanda.
Potential upsets: Mary Poppins Returns could be in play here, especially with that big “leerie” dance number. The lifestyle porn of Crazy Rich Asians could also show up. And I wouldn’t rule out the massive sets of Ready Player One.
Longshots: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs; Bohemian Rhapsody; anything else that earned attention from the guild.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
First Man
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Ready Player One
Comments: Bigger is generally better here, though I’m making an exception for First Man. Well, sort of. The movie doesn’t feature any superhero fight scenes or computer-generated dinosaurs, which are generally the hallmarks of “bigness” with the Academy. But it does have a sequence that makes you wrestle with the existence of humanity’s place in the universe, which is pretty damn big in its own way.
Potential upsets: This field has already been whittled down to a shortlist of 10; the remaining contenders are Ant-Man and the Wasp, Christopher Robin (huh?), Mary Poppins Returns (what??), Solo: A Star Wars Story, and Welcome to Marwen. Ant-Man sports some amazing effects, but I don’t see the Academy nominating three Marvel movies. I never saw Welcome to Marwen because the reviews were so atrocious, but it’s the likeliest to crash the party.
Longshots: This is more like a zero-shot, because it already missed the shortlist, but the absence of Annihilation here is completely insane. And the omission of Aquaman doesn’t make much sense either. Or Bumblebee for that matter. This shortlist is bad.
OK, that’s a wrap. (Technically, there are eight more categories, but I don’t care enough about them to predict them.) We’ll be back tomorrow with a recap of how we did.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.