This was the first year that I’ve ever attempted to watch the Academy’s livestream of the nominations. I do not recommend it. I know that the Oscars are still a bit behind the times with respect to technology, but you’d think they could figure out how to stream a video of two people reading cue cards without it crashing every 20 seconds.
In any event, my predictions this year were pretty dismal; I hit on just 51 of 69 (74%), a steep drop from the 81% mark that I posted last year. Ordinarily I’d say that’s a good thing, because I’m always in favor of an unpredictable Oscars, but some of the nominees this year were real head-scratchers. But so be it. Let’s take a quick run through the field:
BEST PICTURE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice If Beale Street Could Talk
Analysis: In one sense, I predicted the Academy’s most important category correctly, in that I didn’t miss any of the films that made the cut. But of course, I was also anticipating a nod for If Beale Street Could Talk, a good movie that fared relatively poorly. C’est la vie.
Current favorite: None—literally half the slate is in the running right now. It’s tempting to pick Roma, since it led the way with 10 total nominations, but the possibility of anti-Netflix bias with the Academy is always lurking. The Favourite tied Roma with 10 noms, but I’m not sure I see it muscling its way to the top prize. A Star Is Born is the kind of classical, artist-focused film that has won Best Picture in the past, but its director failed to gain a nomination; will that matter? (Remember: It didn’t with Argo.) And then there’s Green Book, a deeply polarizing movie that has clearly acquired a passionate group of supporters. It isn’t the Best Picture we need, but in America 2019, it’s probably the one we deserve.
Worst omission: Thoroughbreds. Sure, this never had a chance, but history will look kindly on Cory Finley’s electrifying debut.
BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón—Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos—The Favourite
Spike Lee—BlacKkKlansman Bradley Cooper—A Star Is Born Pawel Pawlikowski—Cold War Peter Farrelly—Green Book Adam McKay—Vice
Analysis: Well this was certainly unexpected. I figured that McKay had decent odds of showing up, but I thought that it would be at the expense of Lanthimos rather than Farrelly. The real surprise, though, is Cooper’s absence, given the overall strength of A Star Is Born. (Meanwhile, I reiterate my plea to AMC Westminster to screen Cold War this weekend. You have 24 screens; you’re telling me that you can’t make room on one for a Best Director nominee?)
Current favorite: Cuarón. Move along.
Worst omission: Ari Aster—Hereditary. I had some qualms with this horror flick’s final act, but in terms of formal technique, there may not have been a more impressively executed movie made in 2018. (And it’s his first feature to boot.)
BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close—The Wife
Olivia Colman—The Favourite
Lady Gaga—A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy—Can You Ever Forgive Me? Viola Davis—Widows Yalitza Aparicio—Roma
Analysis: No huge surprise that Aparicio popped up here instead of Davis.
Current favorite: Probably Colman, though both Gaga and Close could mount challenges.
Worst omission: Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie—Leave No Trace. As was true last year, the Best Actress pool was insanely deep, and I can’t get mad about any of these nominations. (This is why I refrain from using the term “snubbed”, because it implies some sort of manifest injustice rather than a slight difference in preference.) But it’s disappointing that the Academy failed to honor one of the year’s best films anywhere on the ballot, and Harcourt McKenzie’s quietly devastating performance would have been the perfect spot.
BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale—Vice
Bradley Cooper—A Star Is Born
Rami Malek—Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen—Green Book Ethan Hawke—First Reformed Willem Dafoe—At Eternity’s Gate
Analysis: Good reminder that the Academy is not a critics’ group. Much like Bruce Willis’ name in Pulp Fiction, Hawke’s overflowing trophy case didn’t mean shit.
Current favorite: Forced to choose, I’d take Malek, but honestly, this could go to anyone other than Dafoe.
Worst omission: Daveed Diggs—Blindspotting. One of the year’s most overlooked movies was anchored by one of its most nimble and unpredictable performances.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams—Vice
Regina King—If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone—The Favourite
Rachel Weisz—The Favourite Claire Foy—First Man Marina de Tavira—Roma
Analysis: Surprise! I knew Foy was a dicey pick, but I certainly wasn’t expecting de Tavira to take her place.
Current favorite: King.
Worst omission: Haley Lu Richardson—Support the Girls. Regina Hall is deservedly receiving considerable acclaim for her poignant lead performance, but Richardson complements her beautifully.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali—Green Book
Adam Driver—BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott—A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant—Can You Ever Forgive Me? Timothée Chalamet—Beautiful Boy Sam Rockwell—Vice
Analysis: Oh come on. I’m a huge Rockwell fan, but his performance in Vice was some of the least interesting acting in his career.
Current favorite: Grant.
Worst omission: Michael B. Jordan—Black Panther. Once again, I ask the question: How do you nominate this movie for Best Picture without simultaneously honoring its single greatest asset?
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Favourite—Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
Green Book—Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly
Roma—Alfonso Cuarón
Vice—Adam McKay Sorry to Bother You—Boots Riley First Reformed—Paul Schrader
Analysis: Interesting! It’s a bit dissonant for Schrader’s First Reformed script to show up without a corresponding nomination for Ethan Hawke, but remember that, with the exception of Best Picture, the Academy’s nominations derive from their specific branches; clearly, their writers were more taken with the film than were their actors.
Current favorite: This is probably a fight between The Favourite and Green Book, though it’s possible that Vice could sneak in.
Worst omission: Tully—Diablo Cody. Cody’s post-Juno career has turned her into a weird sort of punch line, but she did great work again here, with sharp dialogue and a brilliant late reveal.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BlacKkKlansman—Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?—Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk—Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born—Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters Black Panther—Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole The Ballad of Buster Scruggs—Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
Analysis: Poor form on my part not even considering the possibility that the Coens might show up here.
Current favorite: My very tentative bet would be on BlacKkKlansman, but this category is basically a five-sided coin right now.
Worst omission: Widows—Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen. Sure, the script landed a few political punches, but it was the exquisite plotting that really made this heist film sing.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Favourite—Robbie Ryan
Roma—Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born—Matthew Libatique First Man—Linus Sandgren Cold War—Lukasz Zal If Beale Street Could Talk—James Laxton Never Look Away—Caleb Deschanel
Analysis: Whoa. OK, I’ve been predicting the Oscar nominations in these 13 categories for the past 11 years. I’ve been wrong before. A lot. But I have never seen a nomination show up for a movie that I’ve literally never heard of. That changed this year with Never Look Away. Onto the Netflix queue it goes!
Current favorite: Roma.
Worst omission: Bad Times at the El Royale—Seamus McGarvey. It’s easy to overlook just how expertly crafted this thriller was, and McGarvey’s expert lensing led the way.
BEST FILM EDITING
BlacKkKlansman—Barry Alexander Brown
Green Book—Patrick J. Don Vito First Man—Tom Cross Bohemian Rhapsody—John Ottman Roma—Alfonso Cuarón and Adam Gough The Favourite—Yorgos Mavropsaridis A Star Is Born—Jay Cassidy Vice—Hank Corwin
Analysis: Ouch. I warned you this could get ugly.
Current favorite: Like I’m really confident picking a winner after that showing? (OK fine, I’ll take BlacKkKlansman.)
Worst omission: Searching—Nick Johnson and Will Merrick. The movie was basically a pure gimmick, but it executed that gimmick flawlessly, and the editing was crucial to its success.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Black Panther—Ludwig Göransson
If Beale Street Could Talk—Nicholas Britell
Isle of Dogs—Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns—Marc Shaiman First Man—Justin Hurwitz BlacKkKlansman—Terence Blanchard
Analysis: Suffice it to say that First Man didn’t quite have the strong showing in the technical fields that I was anticipating. (It did land nominations for Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, though I declined to predict those categories.)
Current favorite: I’ll go with Beale Street, though it’s always dicey betting against Desplat.
Worst omission: Revenge—Robin Coudert. This movie is an absolute thrill ride from the jump, and Coudert’s music is a key contribution.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Roma Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Mary Poppins Returns
Analysis: So much for the Oscar dynasty of the Fantastic Beasts films.
Current favorite: The Favourite, though it hardly has a sizeable lead.
Worst omission: Ready Player One. For that Shining sequence alone.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
First Man
Ready Player One Black Panther Christopher Robin Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Solo: A Star Wars Story
Analysis: Yikes.
Current favorite: Bigger is typically better here, so I’ll go with Infinity War.
Worst omission: Annihilation. My theory is that this actually made the cut, but then the shortlist mutated and nobody noticed.
OK, that’s a wrap for now. We’ll be back next month with some category-specific analysis before the big show on February 24.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.
No predictions for Best Animated Feature Film? Love the list though. And I had no idea they live-streamed the nominations. Also, thoughts on a hostless Oscars this year? Good? Bad?
For the predictions post, I typically draw the line at these 13 categories, as I’m not sufficiently motivated about the other 8 (11 if you count the shorts) to dig into the weeds. But I’ll do some quick analysis of all the feature categories when I predict the winners. I will say that the Best Animated Feature group is very strong this year; I haven’t seen Mirai, but the other four nominees all range from good to excellent.
I’ve never cared all that much about the host, so I don’t really mind not having one. We’ll see if it makes the show awkward; with luck, it’ll just make it shorter.