Oscars 2019: Nomination Prediction Results

Poor Jennifer Lopez.

On the one hand, as a rule, I abhor the “Actor X was snubbed!” rhetoric. When a category limits itself to five selections, your favorites invariably find themselves left out; this rarely means that the chosen quintet is drastically inferior. That’s especially true in this bountiful era—our Golden Age of Acting—when every year seems to offer up a dozen or more performances worthy of recognition in each of the four fields. My own ballot in the acting categories hardly ever aligns with the Academy’s, but that doesn’t render their choices indefensible; it’s just a natural consequence of mathematics, the result of a large number being cruelly reduced to a small one. Great performances are inevitably excluded, not because voters didn’t appreciate them, but because they simply admired other work more.

Having said all that: Jennifer Lopez was snubbed. Her performance in Hustlers, full of fire and sadness and compassion, is the quintessential Oscar-worthy performance. It is impossible to conceive of a Best Supporting Actress field without her. The Academy blew it.

But as I discussed yesterday when making my predictions, one of the functions of the Oscars is to facilitate complaining. Their nominal purpose is to honor cinema’s best, but they’re more interesting for what they get wrong, which is what gets people angry (and talking). The only thing worse than an imperfect slate of nominees is a perfect one.

Speaking of predictions, I hit on 83% of mine this year (57 of 69), a decidedly mediocre number. Same as it ever was. On to some quick category-specific thoughts:

BEST PICTURE
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Analysis: It’s telling that, for all of my incorrect predictions, one of the three categories that I nailed perfectly was the biggest one. Perhaps this suggests that voters tend to be more adventurous in other areas but stick to the script when the chips are down. Or maybe it’s just random. In any event, as Best Picture fields go, this is a suitably interesting one; four of the nine movies are all but certain to make my top 10 list (coming soon!), and even the nominees I don’t particular care for are interesting in their own way.

Current favorite: Forced to pick right now, I’d take 1917 in a squeaker over Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. But the only two films I’m comfortable eliminating are Ford v Ferrari and Little Women. For everything else, it’s possible to construct a narrative where they snag the trophy. Suspense!

Worst omission: Official Secrets. I doubt this garnered a single vote, but no movie in 2019 grappled with the terror of our present political reality with such exhilarating bluntness.

BEST DIRECTOR
Bong Joon-ho—Parasite
Sam Mendes—1917
Martin Scorsese—The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Greta Gerwig—Little Women Todd Phillips—Joker

Analysis: Sigh. I’m less enraged about Gerwig’s omission here than I am about Lopez missing for Best Supporting Actress, only because there were quite a few impressive directorial efforts in 2019 worth highlighting. Phillips’ clumsy handling of Joker, however, is not one of them. C’est la vie.

Current favorite: Mendes. It’s possible that Tarantino pulls ahead if Hollywood acquires sweep momentum, but the Academy tends to favor visible achievement in this category; love or hate the single-shot technique/gimmick of 1917, it sure is visible.

Worst omission: Greta Gerwig—Little Women. Hey, at least she got nominated for Lady Bird.

BEST ACTRESS
Scarlett Johansson—Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan—Little Women
Charlize Theron—Bombshell
Renée Zellweger—Judy
Lupita Nyong’o—Us Cynthia Erivo—Harriet

Analysis: Erivo’s nomination is hardly a surprise. She’s also the lone person of color across 20 acting nominations. Expect to hear more about that over the next month (and year).

Current favorite: Johansson. I’d love to see Ronan nab her first win here, but this seems like Scarlett’s year.

Worst omission: Lupita Nyong’o—Us. There were a great number of terrific turns from leading ladies this year; I could just as easily have highlighted Awkwafina’s gentle awakening in The Farewell, or Jessie Buckley’s triumphant swagger in Wild Rose, or Sienna Miller’s simmering grief in American Woman, or Julianne Moore’s fragile perseverance in Gloria Bell, or Florence Pugh’s burgeoning terror in Midsommar (not to mention her steely toughness in Fighting with My Family). But Nyong’o’s dual work in Us was something special: smart, funny, and scary.

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver—Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix—Joker
Taron Egerton—Rocketman Antonio Banderas—Pain and Glory
Adam Sandler—Uncut Gems Jonathan Pryce—The Two Popes

Analysis: I don’t love Pain and Glory the way most critics do, but I can hardly begrudge Banderas showing up here. I can begrudge Pryce getting in for The Two Popes, a deeply boring movie that somehow landed three nominations in major categories. Ugh.

Current favorite: Phoenix, with Driver close behind. Keep a close eye on the Screen Actors Guild awards on Sunday; if Phoenix wins there, this race is over.

Worst omission: Kelvin Harrison Jr.—Luce.  Even more so than their female counterparts (and unlike in recent years), Hollywood’s leading men delivered an embarrassment of riches in 2019. It’ll take me some time before I settle on my final ballot—can I really leave off Eddie Murphy in Dolemite Is My Name? What about Ray Romano in Paddleton?—but Harrison’s fierce intelligence is too riveting to deny.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern—Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson—Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh—Little Women
Margot Robbie—Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez—Hustlers Kathy Bates—Richard Jewell

Analysis: Lopez missing the cut is disappointing; her being replaced by Bates is infuriating.

Current favorite: Dern. Though Johansson pulling a double-victory for Marriage Story and Jojo Rabbit sure would be something. (For the record, she’s excellent in both.)

Worst omission: Take a guess.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks—A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino—The Irishman
Joe Pesci—The Irishman
Brad Pitt—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Jamie Foxx—Just Mercy Anthony Hopkins—The Two Popes

Analysis: LAME.

Current favorite: Pitt. Book it.

Worst omission: Wesley Snipes—Dolemite Is My Name. Hey, remember Wesley Snipes? Turns out he’s still a really good actor!

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Knives Out—Rian Johnson
Marriage Story—Noah Baumbach
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood—Quentin Tarantino
Parasite—Bong Joon-ho
Booksmart— Emily Halpern et al. 1917—Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns

Analysis: “Given how little dialogue 1917 has, I don’t see it landing here, but never count out a Best Picture frontrunner.” Why don’t I just listen to myself? (But seriously, the presence of 1917 here is what made me nudge it into the lead in the Best Picture race.)

Current favorite: No idea. You can make a case for any of these.

Worst omission: Honestly, this is a damn impressive slate of nominees, so I can’t really complain. But I still would have loved to see Booksmart show up.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman— Steven Zaillian
Jojo Rabbit—Taika Waititi
Joker— Todd Phillips and Scott Silver
Little Women—Greta Gerwig
The Two Popes— Anthony McCarten

Analysis: This category is… less impressive.

Current favorite: The Irishman, I guess? But if Joker wins this award early in the night, start holding your breath.

Worst omission: Transit—Christian Petzold. This movie is excellent and is streaming on Amazon Prime and you should watch it.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Irishman— Rodrigo Prieto
Joker— Lawrence Sher
1917—Roger Deakins
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood— Robert Richardson
Ford v Ferrari— Phedon Papamichael The Lighthouse— Jarin Blaschke

Analysis: Give the Academy credit: I don’t love The Lighthouse, but it’s hardly a middle-of-the-road pick.

Current favorite: 1917. Move along.

Worst omission: Climax—Benoît Debie. I very much did not care for this movie, but what Debie and Gaspar Noé do with the camera is eye-popping.

BEST FILM EDITING
The Irishman— Thelma Schoonmaker
Joker— Jeff Groth
Parasite— Jinmo Yang
1917—Lee Smith Ford v Ferrari—Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood— Fred Raskin Jojo Rabbit—Tom Eagles

Analysis: It’s fascinating that 1917, for all of its technical accomplishments, didn’t crack the field here, but the editors’ branch apparently saw sense. The Hollywood omission is more surprising and more puzzling.

Current favorite: My heart says Parasite, but my head says The Irishman.

Worst omission: Knives Out—Bob Ducsay. Building suspense is crucial to Rian Johnson’s mystery, and the brilliant editing rhythms heighten the tension.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Joker— Hildur Guðnadóttir
Little Women— Alexandre Desplat
Marriage Story—Randy Newman
1917—Thomas Newman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker—John Williams

Analysis: Broken clocks are right twice a day.

Current favorite: Guðnadóttir.

Worst omission: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World—John Powell. This trilogy is justifiably lauded for its gorgeous animation, but Powell’s music is also a thing of beauty.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Irishman
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Little Women Jojo Rabbit

Analysis: Apparently, the only safer bet than a period piece set in the Civil War is a period piece set in World War II.

Current favorite: 1917, though Hollywood could play here as well.

Worst omission: I wouldn’t have minded seeing Little Women here, but I’m mostly good with this group.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Endgame
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Alita: Battle Angel The Irishman

Analysis: Man, the #AlitaArmy just can’t catch a break.

Current favorite: The Lion King? It certainly had the most effects.

Worst omission: Fast Color. Did you know that special effects can be used in the service of storytelling instead of just advertising their own technical prowess?

That’s a wrap for now. We’ll be back the week of the show for some more detailed, category-by-category analysis.