Are you excited for this year’s Oscars? Neither am I. But I’m not depressed about them either. For all of the annual hand-wringing among critics about the disproportionate influence of the Academy Awards—the complaint that the industry focuses so much money and attention on a gala of glorified self-congratulation—it’s worth remembering that the Oscars tend to honor movies which are, for the most part, pretty good. You will not agree with everything that’s nominated, because you are an individual with your own specific tastes rather than a voting body susceptible to marketing, bias, and groupthink. But the lack of recognition for a performance that you loved—or, conversely, the highlighting of one that you simply can’t stand—hardly invalidates your opinion, nor does it signify the Academy’s collective stupidity.
If anything, personal divergence from the bloc’s choices is a good thing, given how the Oscars function as a flattener—a smoothing of esoteric preferences into agreed-upon safe picks. It will never happen, but if my own favorites of a given cinematic year ever precisely aligned with those of the Academy, I’d be worried that I’d lost my own taste—that my private thoughts had somehow become indistinguishable from the public will. That would be far more disturbing than being disappointed about some dubious selections for supporting actress or cinematography.
So by all means, complain about the Oscars; rage about snubs, fret about race, and long for greater surprise and imagination. Some of those grievances are surely valid. Just remember that the displeasure is part of the point.
Here are the Manifesto’s predictions for this year’s Oscar nominations in 13 major categories:
BEST PICTURE
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Comments: Weirdly, I’m confident about all of these except for one: the pleasing sports drama of Ford v Ferrari. If it does miss, the question is whether it’s replaced by a different film like Knives Out, or if it isn’t replaced at all; remember that this is a floating field featuring anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees. I could just hedge and include 10 titles, but that seems like cheating, given that the Academy has never nominated more than 9 since it shifted to the indefinite format.
Potential upsets: Beyond Knives Out, I could see The Farewell sneaking in. Another possibility is Uncut Gems; it would seem to be too abrasive for the Academy’s tastes, but remember that the key here is passion (a film needs to place #1 on 5% of voters’ preferential ballots), and the Safdie Brothers’ grimy thriller certainly has its ardent champions.
Longshots: Some internet pundits are predicting The Two Popes, and if that movie receives a Best Picture nomination, you can forget everything I wrote about remaining sanguine in the face of questionable Oscar choices, because I will burn the Dolby Theatre to the fucking ground.
BEST DIRECTOR
Bong Joon-ho—Parasite
Greta Gerwig—Little Women
Sam Mendes—1917
Martin Scorsese—The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Comments: The four men here all seem like locks; the question is who takes that fifth spot. It went to Taika Waititi for Jojo Rabbit in the Directors Guild, but I suspect that the Academy would favor something more muscular. That would suggest Todd Phillips for Joker, but I’ll go with my heart over my head and take Gerwig.
Potential upsets: Besides Waititi and Phillips, the obvious candidate is Noah Baumbach for Marriage Story, though it seems to be receiving more acclaim for its writing and acting than its direction.
Longshots: James Mangold for Ford v Ferrari; Pedro Almodóvar for Pain and Glory; Lulu Wang for The Farewell; Josh and Benny Safdie for Uncut Gems.
BEST ACTRESS
Scarlett Johansson—Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong’o—Us
Saoirse Ronan—Little Women
Charlize Theron—Bombshell
Renée Zellweger—Judy
Comments: Honestly, Johansson is the only nominee I’m completely confident in here, though Ronan, Theron, and Zellweger all seem like reasonably safe bets. The fifth spot is wide open; I’ll bet on Nyong’o to score her second career nomination.
Potential upsets: Awkwafina for The Farewell is the likeliest interloper, though don’t rule out a wildcard like Cynthia Erivo for Harriet. Regardless, unlike at the BAFTAs, at least one woman of color should pop up here.
Longshots: Speaking of the BAFTAs, Jessie Buckley scored a surprise nod there for her wonderful performance in Wild Rose, but I don’t see her showing up here.
BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver—Marriage Story
Taron Egerton—Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix—Joker
Adam Sandler—Uncut Gems
Comments: Woof. This race is loaded. I’m only confident in two selections here: Driver and Phoenix. After that? Who the hell knows. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood strikes me as the overall nomination leader, so it only makes sense for DiCaprio to show up. Sandler has received a major marketing push acclaiming Uncut Gems as the best performance of his career, so it seems like he has enough momentum to get in. And Egerton is playing a flamboyant musical genius in Rocketman, which seems like a good recipe following Rami Malek’s win last year for Bohemian Rhapsody.
Potential upsets: Take your pick. I initially had Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory in my quintet, though it seems as though his candidacy has lost some steam of late. The other obvious choice is Robert De Niro in The Irishman; I’m only omitting him because most of the attention there has been focused on Joe Pesci. Could Eddie Murphy get in for his extraordinary comeback turn in Dolemite Is My Name? What about Christian Bale for Ford v Ferrari, where he scored at the Screen Actors Guild? I give up.
Longshots: Daniel Craig for Knives Out; Jonathan Pryce for The Two Popes; Roman Griffin Davis for Jojo Rabbit.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern—Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson—Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez—Hustlers
Florence Pugh—Little Women
Margot Robbie—Bombshell
Comments: Dern and Robbie are safe. I’m not especially confident in any of the other three, though if Pugh doesn’t make it for her luminous turn in Little Women, I reserve the right to pout tearfully and beautifully.
Potential upsets: Nicole Kidman has the SAG nod (plus she’s Nicole Kidman), but I just don’t see multiple Bombshell actors cracking the field. Robbie was a double-nominee at the BAFTAs in this category for both Bombshell and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, but that seems like a stretch. Kathy Bates made the Golden Globes for her replacement-level work in Richard Jewell, which, come on.
Longshots: Zhao Shuzhen for The Farwell; Annette Bening for The Report.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jamie Foxx—Just Mercy
Tom Hanks—A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino—The Irishman
Joe Pesci—The Irishman
Brad Pitt—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Comments: Four of these seem solid, even though (or perhaps because) Hanks and Pitt are arguably benefitting from category fraud. Foxx is a total dart-throw.
Potential upsets: Speaking of category fraud, Anthony Hopkins could land here for The Two Popes, given that he showed up at both the BAFTAs and the Globes. And has Song Kang-ho acquired enough momentum as the face of Parasite?
Longshots: Willem Dafoe for The Lighthouse; Taika Waititi for Jojo Rabbit.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Booksmart— Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Susanna Fogel, and Katie Silberman
Knives Out—Rian Johnson
Marriage Story—Noah Baumbach
Parasite—Bong Joon-ho
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood—Quentin Tarantino
Comments: The three Best Picture locks are all on steady footing here. Knives Out and Booksmart are shakier, but the Academy tends to be more adventurous in its screenplay choices.
Potential upsets: Given how little dialogue 1917 has, I don’t see it landing here, but never count out a Best Picture frontrunner. Watch out for The Farewell as well.
Longshots: Ford v Ferrari; Pain and Glory.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman— Steven Zaillian
Jojo Rabbit—Taika Waititi
Joker— Todd Phillips and Scott Silver
Little Women—Greta Gerwig
The Two Popes— Anthony McCarten
Comments: As with the original category, all four of the likely Best Picture nominees should be safe here. It kills me to predict The Two Popes, but it showed up at both the BAFTAs and the Globes, and I just don’t see another option.
Longshots: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood? Just Mercy? Motherless Brooklyn???
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Ford v Ferrari— Phedon Papamichael
The Irishman— Rodrigo Prieto
Joker— Lawrence Sher
1917—Roger Deakins
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood— Robert Richardson
Comments: I feel… pretty confident about this?
Potential upsets: The Lighthouse and Parasite.
Longshots: Portrait of a Lady on Fire. (Hey, did you know this movie existed? No? Maybe that’s because Neon only released it in a few theaters for a qualifying Oscar run back in December and it won’t be going wide until February NOT THAT I’M BITTER OR ANYTHING.)
BEST FILM EDITING
The Irishman— Thelma Schoonmaker
Joker— Jeff Groth
1917—Lee Smith
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood— Fred Raskin
Parasite— Jinmo Yang
Comments: If I’m confident about Best Cinematography, I’m totally clueless here.
Potential upsets: Marriage Story and Ford v Ferrari.
Longshots: Jojo Rabbit and Little Women. (Hey, is it a coincidence that the nine movies listed here are my nine predicted nominees for Best Picture? Must be.)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Joker— Hildur Guðnadóttir
Little Women— Alexandre Desplat
Marriage Story—Randy Newman
1917—Thomas Newman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker—John Williams
Comments: Four of these are solid. I’m not sold on Marriage Story, but there just doesn’t seem to be much else in the running.
Potential upsets: Jojo Rabbit? Ford v Ferrari?
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Irishman
Little Women
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Comments: Period tends to rule the day here, which is why I think Little Women gets in. Parasite is a shakier bet, but, like, did you see that house?
Potential upsets: Jojo Rabbit and Joker.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alita: Battle Angel
Avengers: Endgame
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Comments: This field has already been short-listed down to 10; the other candidates are Captain Marvel (no way they pick two Marvel movies), Cats (lol), Gemini Man (generally derided for its de-aging work), The Irishman (not quite as derided for similar work), and Terminator: Dark Fate (which is apparently a movie that came out in 2019).
Check back tomorrow for some quick analysis once the nominations are announced.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.