Oscars 2019: The Odds and Ends

It’s that time of year! Over the next week, the Manifesto will be rigorously analyzing each of the 21 feature categories for this year’s Oscars. Well, maybe not that rigorously. I used to be an Oscar obsessive, but over the past decade or so, my enthusiasm for the glorified gala has waned a bit. How the movie industry chooses to celebrate itself is no longer of tremendous concern to me. I know which films and performances I like and which I don’t; who really cares what the Academy thinks?

Well, a lot of people. And even setting aside the commercial significance of the Oscars, it’s always worth remembering that, for the most part, they tend to honor pretty good movies. Just don’t take them too seriously; that way, you can’t be too disappointed when they inevitably fuck up.

We’ll be filing a series of posts this week, culminating with a look at Best Picture on Friday. Today, we’re beginning with a handful of categories that I’ve rudely deemed to be minor—not because I discount the contributions of the artisans in these particular fields, but because I, as a cinematic neanderthal, don’t especially care about them. (Speaking of which, I never bother to even predict the three shorts categories, because come on.) Let’s get to it.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

NOMINEES
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

WILL WIN
How much do people like Toy Story 4? That isn’t a rhetorical question. The Pixar film bowed in June to excellent reviews and gobbled up cash, but it doesn’t seem to have stuck in the critical conversation; it doesn’t even appear in Metacritic’s compilation of year-end top 10 lists. It’s also, according to my advanced calculations, the fourth movie in the franchise, and without doing any research whatsoever, I’m not sure that any fourth installment has ever won any kind of Oscar. ([taps earpiece] It appears that Mad Max: Fury Road would like a word.)

Still, I’m not sure I see a viable challenger here. I Lost My Body has received solid word-of-mouth, but it’s a Netflix release, which still comes with a stigma at the moment. Missing Link is well-liked, but it’s hardly generated a ton of enthusiasm. I don’t know what Klaus is (though apparently it just won at the BAFTAs). And if voters are going to vote for a long-delayed sequel, I can’t imagine they’ll pick The Hidden World. Toy Story 4 takes it.

SHOULD WIN
I Lost My Body features an imaginative conceit, plus a couple of cool sequences, but it’s otherwise pretty unremarkable (and even a little creepy). I found the visual technique of The Hidden World to be spellbinding, but aside from one lovely silent sequence, its story is thoroughly disposable. The tedious silliness of Missing Link disappointed me, especially after how much I adored Laika’s Kubo and the Two Strings. So I’ll take Toy Story 4 by default, but I should also say that, for a film with a 97% Rotten Tomatoes score, it’s become weirdly underrated. It’s a movie about existential angst that also features Keanu Reeves playing a Canadian daredevil named Duke Caboom. It’s good!

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

NOMINEES
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

WILL WIN
Not surprisingly, all of these are period pieces. (Or is Joker actually set in the present day because it speaks so boldly about the existential plight of the traditionalist white man in an overly woke society?!?!?) This means that any of them could win, but the Academy likes pretty dresses, so I’ll take Little Women. #analysis

SHOULD WIN
One of my many failings as a critic is that I am very basic in my costume design preferences. This means that, much like the quintessential dunderheaded Oscar voter, my eye is drawn to bright colors and ornate stylings. I mean, look at these hats!

I’m voting for Little Women, is what I’m saying.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Hustlers
Knives Out
Lady J
Little Women
Portrait of a Lady on Fire

See, I told you I was basic. But in addition to the 19th-century threads of Lady J, Little Women, and Portrait of a Lady on Fire, let’s also pay homage to Jennifer Lopez’s fur coat in Hustlers and Chris Evans’ sweater in Knives Out.

The Manifesto’s winner: Little Women.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

NOMINEES
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland

WILL WIN
I don’t watch many documentaries (another of my many critical failings), but I’m usually well-versed enough in the conversation to get a read on the leading Oscar contenders. Not this year. With the exception of The Cave, each of these films has its ardent champions. So I’ll throw a dart and settle on American Factory.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

NOMINEES
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Misérables (France)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)

WILL WIN
This is the first year sporting the new title in this category, which was previously called “Best Foreign Language Film”; the name change has produced all sorts of consternation and stupidity, which I’ll decline to detail here. Suffice it to say that there are still weird issues with the Academy’s eligibility process for highlighting foreign cinema. Regardless, Parasite is winning here. If you’re trying to talk yourself into predicting Pain and Glory because you think voters might pick it for Best Picture and will thus decline to highlight it here, please restart your brain and wait for the software updates to take effect.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Alles Ist Gut (Germany)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Parasite (South Korea)
Portrait of a Lady on Fire (France)
Transit (Germany)

Just a reminder that when compiling my ballot in this category, I ignore the Academy’s arcane eligibility rules and simply use U.S. release date. That can result in weird things, like Never Look Away, which was actually nominated in this category last year, but whatever; what’s important is that you should see it because its sweeping portrait of an artist as an individualistic young man fucking rules. In fact, German cinema had a knock-out 2019; Alles Ist Gut is a crushingly realistic and unadorned depiction of sexual violence and its aftermath, while Transit is an electrifying thriller that doubles as a swooning love story and a thorny political allegory. Portrait of a Lady on Fire, meanwhile, is a beautiful slow-burn romance, with exquisite craft and a searing performance from Adèle Haenel. Parasite is Parasite.

The Manifesto’s winner: Parasite.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

NOMINEES
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917

WILL WIN
Honestly, Bombshell was destined to win this award as soon as its teaser dropped and audiences started gasping, “Wait, is Megyn Kelly playing herself, or is that really Charlize Theron?”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

NOMINEES
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”—Elton John and Bernie Taupin (from Rocketman)
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away”—Randy Newman (from Toy Story 4)
“I’m Standing With You”—Diane Warren (from Breakthrough)
“Into the Unknown”—Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez (from Frozen II)
“Stand Up”—Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)

WILL WIN
My instinct was to take “Into the Unknown”, partly because it’s the emotional high point of a hugely successful blockbuster, partly because it’s one hell of a song. But the winds seem to be blowing in the direction of “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”, which I suppose makes sense. After all, is the Academy really going to pass up the opportunity to fete Elton John? (This also reminds me of my ongoing crusade to pass a rule preventing songs from being nominated when they only play over the end credits, but whatever, there are bigger problems with the Oscars and the world.)

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
The only song that mattered this year was this ditty from Anna and the Apocalypse, and frankly you should all be ashamed of yourselves. (Update: It has been brought to my attention that Anna and the Apocalypse came out in 2018, not 2019. This means that it’s ineligible for this year’s Oscars; it also means that you monsters were delinquent last year, when this song totally would have beaten “Shallow” from A Star Is Born.)

BEST SOUND

NOMINEES (MIXING)
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

NOMINEES (EDITING)
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

WILL WIN
There are really only two contenders here: the vroom-vroom racecars of Ford v Ferrari and the boom-boom explosions of 1917. You can tie yourself into knots trying to parse the technical difference between these two categories—tl;dr: editing involves creating sounds, mixing involves balancing them—and analyzing their historical trends, but in the end it’s basically a toss-up. I’ll take 1917 for both.

More tomorrow.