Oscars

Someday, an enterprising young man with a degree in applied mathematics and way too much time on his hands – not that I’m looking at anyone in particular – is going to compile a riveting sociological study on the Best Supporting Actor/Actress Oscars and the economic windfall that they yield for their winners. I mean, do these things really matter? I’ve always argued that the Academy Awards themselves are highly relevant, at least from a commercial standpoint if not an artistic one. Oscar winners immediately become more marketable as business properties, simply due to their increased visibility; once you win an Oscar, you’re somebody. Aren’t you?

Lately, I’m not so sure. True, following his ferocious Oscar-winning performance in Inglourious Basterds, Christoph Waltz is now every casting director’s first call for the part of “Megalomaniacal Villain” (the only reason he isn’t playing the baddie in the upcoming James Bond movie is that fellow Best Supporting Actor winner Javier Bardem beat him to it). But do you realize that the winners of Best Supporting Actress over the past decade include Jennifer Connelly (only two worthwhile credits in the 10 years following A Beautiful Mind), Catherine Zeta-Jones (last quasi-memorable role: Ocean’s Twelve in 2004), Renée Zelweger (only function these days seems to involve spreading rumors of another wretched Bridget Jones sequel), Jennifer Hudson (virtually invisible post-Dreamgirls), and Mo’Nique (lone credit since Precious? Steppin: The Movie)? And I haven’t even mentioned Cuba Gooding, Jr. yet. I thought winning an Oscar was supposed to energize your career, not torpedo it.

So it’s entirely possible that winning an Academy Award for a supporting performance has a 30% chance of derailing an actor’s career. Just remember this when you look back 10 years from now and think to yourself, “Who the hell was Octavia Spencer?”.

But I digress. On to the predictions. Read More

Given that I dubbed my last post the “Aural Edition”, this one should probably be called the “Horror Edition”. Why? Because predicting these four categories at this year’s Oscars absolutely terrifies me. I don’t mean an abstract, intellectual form of terror in the “I’m scared that Keira Knightley might never win an Oscar” or “I’m afraid that Jeremy Lin might pull a Hank Gathers and die on the basketball court if D’Antoni keeps playing him 45 minutes every night” vein. I mean that, if I go 0-for-4 in predicting these deeply important technical categories on Oscar night – a scenario that is alarmingly plausible – then there’s the distinct possibility that I’ll film myself with tears streaming down my face, babbling, “I am so, so sorry for underestimating the impact that Hugo held with mainstream Academy voters,” before wandering into the woods and never being heard from again. In the words of Terius Nash, this shit real.

(Just to confirm: It’s not normal to have nightmares about an unwatchable film winning Best Cinematography, right? I’m starting to wonder if I take this whole Oscar thing a bit too seriously. Oh well, too late now.)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

NOMINEES
The Artist – Guillame Schiffman
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – Jeff Crenoweth
Hugo – Robert Richardson
The Tree of Life – Emmanuel Lubezki
War Horse – Janusz Kaminski Read More

Cinema may be a visual medium first and foremost, but its visuals would be pretty fucking useless without their auditory companions. And while my list of things to do before I die includes compiling the Manifesto’s Mute-Movie Hall of Fame – a list of films that are effective as works of art even with the sound turned off (current candidates include Avatar, Bram Stoker’s Dracula, Hero, The Man Who Wasn’t There, and every Pixar movie ever made) – for the most part, a film’s aural component can be critical to its success. So recognition from the Academy for achievement in these categories (with one exception – more on that later) makes perfect sense.

(Also, if you’re wondering why no Terence Malick productions made my random shortlist of Mute Movies, that’s because they’re too busy fighting for a spot on the Anti-Sound All-Stars, a select group reserved for movies that actually become worse once you turn on your speakers. And if you don’t know what I’m talking about, you’ve clearly never seen The New World or The Tree of Life.)

With that said, I have to confess that only one of the following four categories really interests me (though it’s one of the most important fields of the entire Academy Awards). I acknowledge the importance of the next two without fully partaking in their spirit, primarily because, after writing the Manifesto for 11 years and spending thousands of hours reading film criticism exclusively devoted to the Oscars, I still don’t really know what they mean. Oh, and the last category is worthless.

Alright, on to the predictions.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

NOMINEES
The Adventures of Tintin – John Williams
The Artist – Ludovic Bource
Hugo – Howard Shore
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – Alberto Iglesias
War Horse – John Williams Read More

It is the Manifesto’s solemn, sacred duty to provide, for every Oscar category (stupid shorts aside), analysis that is both cogent and exhilarating. Fortunately, my enthusiasm for the majority of the fields is such that I take great pleasure in trying really hard but ultimately failing triumphing at such a daunting task. Sadly, my typically limitless passion is somewhat, well, limited for the following categories. As I say every year, I don’t mean to impugn the importance of these crafts to their respective films. They just aren’t that interesting to me personally, and thus I am unceremoniously lumping them together in a single, miscellany-style post.

For a strained but strangely pertinent analogy: Netflix has a setting on its website where you can select the video quality of your streaming service. The three potential options are – and I swear I’m not making this up – “Good,” “Better,” and “Best”. (Aside: These happen to be the same choices I give a woman whenever I ask her to critique my sexual prowess.) Applying that rubric to the Oscars, these are the “Good” categories. So if the text on your screen suddenly turns into Wingdings, or if the quality of the embedded videos reminds you of that time in 1995 when you kept watching late-night Cinemax even though your Dad wouldn’t pay for the channel and all you could really see were jagged lines and occasional glimpses of a woman’s bare shoulder, don’t worry, it’ll get better for the “Better” and “Best” fields.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

NOMINEES
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E. Read More

Well that didn’t quite go as planned.

My predictions for this year’s Oscar nominations hit on just 50 out of 69 picks, good for a rate of 72%. That’s a rather precipitous decline from my 91% mark a year ago (when I only predicted eight categories rather than 13). Nevertheless, this year’s slate of nominees has me less frustrated than nonplussed. As it turns out, I overrated the appeal of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (which is a shame, because it’s a good movie) and underrated the heft of War Horse (which is heartening, because it’s a great movie). I paid a bit too much devotion to guild awards, from which the voters strayed liberally (with the marked exception of the Screen Actors’ Guild). And I was absolutely blindsided by one of the Best Picture selections.

But, aside from a pair of unforgivable omissions in the supporting actor and actress categories, I’m relatively content with this year’s Oscar nominees. Sure, there’s too much The Tree of Life and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and not enough Drive or Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 for my liking, but no individual is ever going to be wholly satisfied with the choices of a collective. Perhaps it’s because my hopes weren’t all that high to begin with – I’ve been resigned that many of my favorite films of 2011 would fail to synchronize with the Academy’s choices for some time – but the results are more eyebrow-raising than appalling. And if nothing else, this year’s Oscars should raise the profile for a handful of well-made, little-seen movies. So that’s something.

Now let’s get to where I fucked up. (Incorrect predictions are in red.) Read More