The internet demands extreme reactions; favored adjectives include disastrous, extraordinary, loathsome, and life-changing. This tends to chafe with my obnoxious penchant for suggesting that most things are Fine. So this year, I’ll do my best to deliver a hot take and proclaim that this year’s Oscars were… pretty good! They were not exceptional; most of the speeches were dull, the songs were a bore, and the lack of clips/footage was infuriating. But while Conan O’Brien initially seemed to be pulling the tedious shtick of complaining that the nominated films weren’t “popular” enough (I groaned when he mocked the length of The Brutalist), his overall vibe proved positive, earnest, and charming; no single movie was the butt of his jokes more than he was himself. His general enthusiasm infected the rest of the show, which had the feel of a playful, buoyant get-together. If Hollywood’s celebrities indulged themselves while the world around them burned, at least they had a good time and let us vicariously share in their joy.
As for the awards themselves, in one sense the Academy spread the wealth; eight of the 10 Best Picture nominees scooped up at least one trophy, with five of them scoring multiple victories. But the night belonged to Anora. Yesterday, I noted the oddity of my predictions, which pegged Sean Baker’s odyssey to win the top prize but only one additional Oscar; I knew that I’d be wrong, but I wasn’t sure which way. Happily, my favorite of 2024’s contenders went on a spree, winning five of the six categories it was nominated in. The sands of history will decide how this quasi-sweep is perceived, but in the moment, I’m very pleased for one of the year’s most enjoyable and poignant movies.
Per tradition, let’s run through the categories in their order of presentation and see which ones I messed up:
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted winner: Kieran Culkin—A Real Pain (confidence: 5/5)
Preferred winner: Kieran Culkin—A Real Pain
Actual winner: Kieran Culkin—A Real Pain
Always cute when all three lines match like that.
Best Animated Feature
Predicted winner: The Wild Robot (confidence: 4/5)
Preferred winner: Inside Out 2
Actual winner: Flow
Neat! I still maintain that Inside Out 2 has become weirdly underrated (insofar as a film which made $1.7 billion worldwide and received generally positive reviews can be underrated), but Flow is an ambitious and impressive movie that doesn’t pander to its audience. Kudos to the Academy for honoring it.
Best Costume Design
Predicted winner: Wicked—Paul Tazewell (confidence: 2/5)
Preferred winner: Nosferatu—Linda Muir
Actual winner: Wicked—Paul Tazewell
No huge argument here, even if I’m mildly bummed that Nosferatu—one of the year’s most ravishingly crafted pictures—scored a goose-egg on the night.
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted winner: The Substance—Coralie Fargeat (confidence: 1/5)
Preferred winner: Anora—Sean Baker
Actual winner: Anora—Sean Baker
It’s good to be wrong! Also, Baker did a nifty job throughout the night varying his speeches rather than just repeating an endless string of thank-yous; with this one, he paid tribute to the sex-worker community.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted winner: Conclave—Peter Straughan (confidence: 5/5)
Preferred winner: Nickel Boys—RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
Actual winner: Conclave—Peter Straughan
At this point in the night, we had no real insight into the Best Picture race, as Anora and Conclave were essentially running a dead heat. The parity did not last.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted winner: The Substance (confidence: 5/5)
Preferred winner: The Substance
Actual winner: The Substance
That’s “Academy Award-winning The Substance” to you. Also, I didn’t love most of the actual presentations—the humorous bits rarely landed, while the reams of praise felt samey—but Scarlett Johansson and June Squibb were terrific here. Squibb is 95 years old, and her comic timing remains tack-sharp (“I’m actually being played by Bill Skarsgård right now”). Bravo.
This was followed by an extended James Bond tribute, which felt vaguely funereal given that Barbara Broccoli just sold the franchise rights to Amazon, which presumably intends to turn it into a widget factory. The song-and-dance routine was largely banal, but it also featured Margaret Qualley in this dress so it wasn’t all bad:
Best Film Editing
Predicted winner: Anora—Sean Baker (confidence: 1/5)
Preferred winner: The Brutalist—David Jancso
Actual winner: Anora—Sean Baker
Before this, O’Brien delivered his best bit of the night with a pitch for “CinemaStreams”—a hysterical but sneakily heartfelt pitch for audiences to return to theaters. Also, this was where the tide started to turn, given that Anora and Conclave were competing against each other.
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted winner: Zoe Saldaña—Emilia Pérez (confidence: 4/5)
Preferred winner: Ariana Grande—Wicked
Actual winner: Zoe Saldaña—Emilia Pérez
Saldaña gave one of the night’s more impassioned speeches, though the most memorable remarks wouldn’t arrive until a bit later.
Best Production Design
Predicted winner: Wicked— Nathan Crowley (confidence: 3/5)
Preferred winner: The Brutalist—Judy Becker
Actual winner: Wicked—Nathan Crowley
I laughed more at Ben Stiller’s bit here than I did during the totality of Nutcrackers.
Best Original Song
Predicted winner: “El Mal”—Clément Ducol, Camille, and Jacques Audiard (from Emilia Pérez) (confidence: 4/5)
Actual winner: “El Mal”—Clément Ducol, Camille, and Jacques Audiard (from Emilia Pérez)
Suck it, Diane Warren! You’re a born loser!
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted winner: No Other Land (confidence: 2/5)
Actual winner: No Other Land
And here we have the evening’s most powerful speech: Basel Adra and Yuval Abraham’s joint plea to end the ethnic cleansing in Gaza. Their delivery was crisp and cogent but also extremely moving, in no small part for their courage in specifically calling out U.S. foreign policy. I’m sure that our president, avid TV-watcher and compassionate human that he is, will surely take commensurate action.
Best Sound
Predicted winner: Dune: Part Two (confidence: 3/5)
Preferred winner: Dune: Part Two
Actual winner: Dune: Part Two
Hey, Dune 2 won an Oscar! Good movie.
Best Visual Effects
Predicted winner: Dune: Part Two (confidence: 3/5)
Preferred winner: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Actual winner: Dune: Part Two
Hey, Dune 2 won multiple Oscars! It wasn’t my preference here, but it’s a technically spectacular movie, so I can’t really complain.
Best Cinematography
Predicted winner: The Brutalist—Lol Crawley (confidence: 2/5)
Preferred winner: Nosferatu—Jarin Blaschke
Actual winner: The Brutalist—Lol Crawley
The Brutalist is on the board!
Best International Feature
Predicted winner: Emilia Pérez (France) (confidence: 3/5)
Preferred winner: The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Actual winner: I’m Still Here (Brazil)
Twist! Whether Academy voters never truly loved Emilia Pérez or soured on it after Stuff Happened (O’Brien had the gumption to mock Karla Sofía Gascón during his opening monologue), their ultimate appreciation of the movie proved limited; despite being nominated for 13 Oscars (in 12 categories), it only took home two prizes.
Best Original Score
Predicted winner: The Brutalist—Daniel Blumberg (confidence: 4/5)
Preferred winner: The Brutalist—Daniel Blumberg
Actual winner: The Brutalist—Daniel Blumberg
Blumberg’s speech was a useful reminder that gifted artisans are not always skilled public speakers.
Best Actor
Predicted winner: Adrien Brody—The Brutalist (confidence: 2/5)
Preferred winner: Ralph Fiennes—Conclave
Actual winner: Adrien Brody—The Brutalist
Brody’s speech was interminable, but at least he stuck the landing.
Best Director
Predicted winner: Brady Corbet—The Brutalist (confidence: 1/5)
Preferred winner: Brady Corbet—The Brutalist
Actual winner: Sean Baker—Anora
This time around, Baker issued a paean to the sanctity of the theatrical experience. As someone whose admiration for Anora stems partly from the joy of seeing it with a large and enthusiastic audience, I wholeheartedly endorse his message.
Best Actress
Predicted winner: Demi Moore—The Substance (confidence: 1/5)
Preferred winner: Mikey Madison—Anora
Actual winner: Mikey Madison—Anora
Whoa! Despite my low confidence level, this one still shocked me in the moment. I feel bad for Moore, but Madison delivers a star-making performance in Anora. The Oscars got this one right.
Best Picture
Predicted winner: Anora (confidence: 1/5)
Preferred winner: Anora
Actual winner: Anora
And they nailed this one too. A good end to a good night honoring a good movie. Tough to find a negative hot take in that.
Thanks for following allowing with our annual Oscars’ coverage. See you next year.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.