Oscars 2024: Best Actor and Best Actress

We’re saving our analysis of the Best Picture race for tomorrow, but for today, a quick confession: Of all of the Oscar categories that I run through every year—and so far in 2024 we’ve looked at the supporting actors, the screenplays, the big techies, and some odds and ends—the lead acting fields are always my favorite. Not because they’re competitive (though both races this year are more intriguing than typical), but because they yield the ceremonial creation of my own ballots—a torturous annual exercise, but one I find valuable as a historical matter. It’s easy to exclaim that a specific performance was “snubbed,” or to express bewilderment that a certain actor has never been recognized in their entire career. It’s harder, or at least requires more precision, to point to a rigid five-person field in a given year that you assembled and memorialized at the time. So when I declare that Saoirse Ronan should have received nine Oscar nods already, I’m not (just) randomly raving; I also have the (subjective) data to back it up. Take that, internet!

BEST ACTOR

NOMINEES
Adrien Brody—The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet—A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo—Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes—Conclave
Sebastian Stan—The Apprentice

WILL WIN
For most of the season, Brody was the clear frontrunner here, but then last Sunday Chalamet won at the Screen Actors Guild and altered the equation. His ascent makes intuitive sense: He’s playing a famous person, he sings, and he’s been campaigning hard on the circuit. But just how much is that SAG victory worth? Well, to locate the last time a SAG recipient didn’t also claim the Oscar, you need to go all the way back to… last year, when Lily Gladstone won at SAG (for Killers of the Flower Moon) but the Academy went with Emma Stone (for Poor Things).

So, I’m sticking with Brody, who gives a bigger, more visible performance in a more widely acclaimed movie. In a year that’s gratifyingly full of close races, he’s hardly a sure thing, but he’s my pick.

SHOULD WIN
Stan gave a terrific performance in 2024; sadly, it wasn’t in the film he was nominated for. (He’s quite good in The Apprentice, but there are limits to his imitative shtick.) Otherwise, I’d be fine with any of these dudes winning: Brody is electric, Domingo is heartbreaking, and Chalamet refuses to overact and instead imbues his Bob Dylan with a sharp, exasperated arrogance. Yet to my own surprise, I’m taking Fiennes. To the extent Conclave works at all—and I don’t think it works very well overall—it’s thanks to its lead actor’s coiled intelligence and suppressed longing. Without him, the whole thing collapses. That’s the sign of a great performance.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Ralph Fiennes—Conclave
Josh Hartnett—Trap
Nicholas Hoult—Juror #2
Glen Powell—Hit Man
Sebastian Stan—A Different Man

Hartnett is spellbinding as a sociopath who’s equal parts ruthless and charming. Hoult makes you feel the crushing weight of his everyman moral dilemma. Powell is both hugely entertaining and oddly endearing. Stan’s superior 2024 star turn crackles with warped charisma and entrenched self-loathing.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Glen Powell—Hit Man.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Adrien Brody—The Brutalist
Deniz Celiloğlu—About Dry Grasses
David Dastmalchian—Late Night with the Devil
Hugh Grant—Heretic
Aaron Pierre—Rebel Ridge

Celiloğlu is stupendously unlikable in a way that’s oddly impressive. Dastmalchian translates his character-actor bona fides into a loose and lively lead turn. Grant expertly reconfigures his tweedy charm into something nightmarish. Pierre exudes lethality while exercising brilliant restraint.

Honorable mention: Keith Kupferer—Ghostlight; Cillian Murphy—Small Things Like These; Josh O’Connor—Challengers.

BEST ACTRESS

NOMINEES
Cynthia Erivo—Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón—Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison—Anora
Demi Moore—The Substance
Fernanda Torres—I’m Still Here

WILL WIN
I’ve heard vague rumblings about Torres, but this seems to be a dead heat between Madison and Moore. They split at the main precursors, with Moore taking SAG and Madison winning the BAFTA. They also each have their own appealing narrative: Madison is the up-and-coming ingénue, while Moore is the long-overlooked ’90s glamour girl rising from the ashes. The latter arc is probably more compelling to voters, especially given that it’s heavily echoed in the plot of The Substance itself. Madison will have her turn; this year, it’s Moore’s day.

SHOULD WIN
Madison. I like Moore a lot, especially in the agonizing sequence where her enthusiasm curdles into self-doubt, while Torres brings a different kind of pulverizing sadness to I’m Still Here. But Madison is revelatory in Anora, showing comic chops, steely toughness, and ultimately a bare-bones vulnerability that rattled my soul.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Juliette Gariépy—Red Rooms
Marianne Jean-Baptiste—Hard Truths
Mikey Madison—Anora
Margaret Qualley—Drive-Away Dolls
Saoirse Ronan—The Outrun

With due respect to Josh Hartnett and Hugh Grant, Gariépy delivers the pound-for-pound scariest performance of 2024, while also providing glimmers of humanity. Jean-Baptiste is loud, rude, and devastating. Qualley is deliriously watchable, anchoring the surrounding absurdity with effortless magnetism. Ronan is good at the acting.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Saoirse Ronan—The Outrun.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Willa Fitzgerald—Strange Darling
Nicole Kidman—Babygirl
Maika Monroe—Longlegs
Lupita Nyong’o—A Quiet Place: Day One
Naomi Scott—Smile 2

Fitzgerald is, to put it mildly, more than initially meets the eye. Kidman elevates her material with fearless commitment. Monroe is the invaluable human center of a happily deranged movie. Nyong’o turns a goofy prequel into a mournful requiem. Scott brings a more vivacious flair to her horror sequel while still providing emotional gravity.

Honorable mention: Lily Collias—Good One; Mia McKenna-Bruce—How to Have Sex; June Squibb—Thelma; Maisy Stella—My Old Ass; Kristen Stewart—Love Lies Bleeding; Anya Taylor-Joy—Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga.

Coming tomorrow: Best Director and Best Picture.