Oscars 2024: Full List of Predictions

Tonight’s the big night, so for your convenience, we’re combining all of our predictions in the 20 feature categories at this year’s Oscars into this omnibus post. It’s curious that, while I’m (tentatively) picking Anora to win Best Picture, I’m also pegging it to take just one other prize; if that holds, it would be only the second Best Picture winner to do so since 1952 (along with Spotlight).

Of course, that won’t hold; a number of these picks will be wrong. Last year I went 18-for-20, thanks in part to Oppenheimer’s dominance; I expect to do far worse this time around. Which is cool! Praise be to a suspenseful and unpredictable 97th Academy Awards. (Categories are arranged alphabetically; click on the header link to be taken to our analysis for that specific race.)

Best Actor
Will win: Adrien Brody—The Brutalist (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Ralph Fiennes—Conclave
Worst omission: Glen Powell—Hit Man

Best Actress
Will win: Demi Moore—The Substance (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Mikey Madison—Anora
Worst omission: Saoirse Ronan—The Outrun

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Conclave—Peter Straughan (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Nickel Boys—RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
Worst omission: Nosferatu—Robert Eggers

Best Animated Feature
Will win: The Wild Robot (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Inside Out 2

Best Cinematography
Will win: The Brutalist—Lol Crawley (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Nosferatu—Jarin Blaschke
Worst omission: Nickel Boys—Jomo Fray

Best Costume Design
Will win: Wicked—Paul Tazewell (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Nosferatu—Linda Muir
Worst omission: Lisa Frankenstein—Meagan McLaughlin

Best Director
Will win: Brady Corbet—The Brutalist (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Brady Corbet—The Brutalist
Worst omission: George Miller—Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: No Other Land (confidence: 2/5)

Best Film Editing
Will win: Anora—Sean Baker (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: The Brutalist—David Jancso
Worst omission: Red Rooms—Jonah Malak

Best International Feature
Will win: Emilia Pérez (France) (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Worst omission: Red Rooms (Canada)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: The Substance (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: The Substance
Worst omission: Lisa Frankenstein

Best Original Score
Will win: The Brutalist—Daniel Blumberg (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: The Brutalist—Daniel Blumberg
Worst omission: Challengers—Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: The Substance—Coralie Fargeat (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Anora—Sean Baker
Worst omission: Juror #2—Jonathan Abrams

Best Original Song
Will win: “El Mal”—Clément Ducol, Camille, and Jacques Audiard (from Emilia Pérez) (confidence: 4/5)

Best Picture
Will win: Anora (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Anora
Worst omission: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Production Design
Will win: Wicked— Nathan Crowley (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: The Brutalist—Judy Becker
Worst omission: Blitz—Adam Stockhausen

Best Sound
Will win: Dune: Part Two (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Dune: Part Two
Worst omission: Hundreds of Beavers

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Kieran Culkin—A Real Pain (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Kieran Culkin—A Real Pain
Worst omission: Chris Hemsworth—Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Zoe Saldaña—Emilia Pérez (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Ariana Grande—Wicked
Worst omission: Emily Watson—Small Things Like These

Best Visual Effects
Will win: Dune: Part Two (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes