You know what’s cool about this year’s Oscars? They’re uncertain. One could even use the word “exciting”! After back-to-back years of heavy sweeps (by Everything Everywhere All at Once and Oppenheimer), we’re looking at genuine races in a number of major categories, including these two. The suspense is, well, suspenseful. I’m basically guessing in at least five above-the-line fields, and that lack of confidence is oddly freeing.
Fun times. Before we finish our analysis, if you missed our rundowns of the other 18 feature categories at this year’s Academy Awards, you can find them at these links:
The lead actors
The screenplays
The supporting actors
The big techies
The odds and ends
BEST DIRECTOR
NOMINEES
Jacques Audiard—Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker—Anora
Brady Corbet—The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat—The Substance
James Mangold—A Complete Unknown
WILL WIN
This is a two-man race between Baker and Corbet. Baker is the slight favorite, having won at the Directors Guild (and having made the more acclaimed film overall). But I’m taking Corbet. Even if voters don’t select The Brutalist for Best Picture, I suspect they’ll lean toward it here given the muscularity and visibility of its direction.
SHOULD WIN
I’m tempted to go with Fargeat here, given the supple elegance she brings to The Substance’s gonzo body horror. Sadly, I can’t quite pull the trigger and am instead choosing Corbet. The Brutalist is a massive movie, but it’s also a work of intricate, fine-grained detail and stylistic precision. It’s too big—and too polished—to fail.
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Brady Corbet—The Brutalist
Robert Eggers—Nosferatu
Coralie Fargeat—The Substance
Luca Guadagnino—Challengers
George Miller—Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Eggers evokes classical terror with ravishing beauty. Guadagnino breathes vibrant human life into an ostensibly silly sports opera. In Furiosa, Miller operates on a different level entirely.
Honorable mention: Osgood Perkins—Longlegs; Jeremy Saulnier—Rebel Ridge.
MovieManifesto’s winner: George Miller—Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga.
BEST PICTURE
NOMINEES
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
WILL WIN
For most of the season, this was Anora’s award to lose, especially after it double-dipped at Producers Guild and Directors Guild on the same night three weeks ago. Then Conclave won the BAFTA, and things got mildly more interesting, even if it’s a decidedly European film, whereas Anora is defiantly American. Then Conclave won again at the Screen Actors Guild, and now we basically have a coin flip.
The theory behind backing Conclave seems to be one of momentum; it’s won the more recent trophies, thereby signalling a change in voters’ collective thinking. There’s surely some truth in this, but I’m not sure how much; the BAFTAs took place just two days before the Oscars’ voting deadline closed, while SAG happened afterward. And while there’s certainly overlap across the various organizations, I’m wary of inferring too much from precursor victories.
The other issue is the Oscars’ preferential ballot; the PGA also uses it, but neither BAFTA nor SAG does. I can’t pretend to divine how various Academy members will rank the 10 nominees; it’s entirely possible that most of them place Conclave higher than Anora. But while Conclave is undeniably well-liked, the overall magnitude of enthusiasm surrounding Anora seems to be higher; I suspect it’ll receive more second- and third-place votes among members who don’t select either film as their favorite.
So, that’s my logic, such as it is. I’m predicting Anora. Do I hope I’m right? Well…
SHOULD WIN
Strictly speaking, Anora is my favorite of the Best Picture nominees, so according to normal-person thinking, it should receive my vote. But I tend not to think normally when it comes to Best Picture; I generally prefer my favorites not to win the big prize so that they don’t suffer the accompanying backlash. That would theoretically nudge me toward The Brutalist, which I admire greatly and which is so colossal in stature that it could presumably withstand the obligatory dismissive rhetoric that comes with taking the trophy.
So sure, maybe in a vacuum—or in a space one level removed from a vacuum—I’d root for The Brutalist. Yet if Anora loses, that means Conclave wins. And I do not like Conclave. I don’t think it’s awful—it’s handsomely executed, and Ralph Fiennes is terrific—but I find its characters flat, its themes thin, and its story boring. It is my least favorite of this year’s Best Picture nominees. (Say what you want about Emilia Pérez, at least it’s memorable.) I think its victory would reflect poorly on the Academy.
Which, I mean, what do I care? It’s not like I’m a member, and of course, whether a movie wins a particular trophy has no bearing on how much it means to you personally. Still, as someone who pays such an unhealthy amount of attention to the Oscars, I’d rather they not choose such a stiff and stolid picture. And the only way Conclave loses is if Anora wins. (Frankly, with reasoning this twisted, maybe I should be in the Academy.)
MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
What’s that you’re asking for? A list of my 10 favorite movies of the year?
Thanks for following along this week. We’ll be back after Sunday’s show with some brief thoughts on the winners and the ceremony.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.