Oscars

Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Julie Christie, Away from Her

Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose

Laura Linney, The Savages

Ellen Page, Juno

Will win: Someone seems to be missing, no? Settle down, we’ll get to that. Anyway, women are complicated, and handicapping this year’s Best Actress race is considerably more difficult than it is for Best Actor. (Makes me miss Helen Mirren; I know my buddy Johnny will miss her chest.) Fortunately, we can eliminate two right away. Cate Blanchett’s second nomination as Queen Elizabeth (bit of trivia: She’s the only actress to be nominated twice for playing the same character) strikes me as a “Barry Bonds court report” level typo – I’m absolutely convinced she’s on the ballot as the result of a clerical era. I really hope she isn’t turning into a younger, infinitely hotter Judi Dench who gets nominated every year just based on her reputation. Regardless, she has as much chance of winning this year’s Best Actress Oscar as Ron Artest has of winning the NBA’s Citizenship Award. Read More

Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War

Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild

Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Will win: As with Best Actor, this one’s easy. Javier Bardem has already compiled 18 other nominations as the plodding, merciless serial killer Anton Chigurh, winning 17 times (his only loss came to Casey Affleck at the Satellite Awards, whatever those are). The only potential obstacle is if voters are afraid he’ll slip into the Killer Voice and terrify the audience with his acceptance speech. I can totally see him limping up to the stage with that creepy smile, then addressing the remaining nominees: “You should admit your situation; there would be more dignity in it.” Yikes. My Buddy Al told me that after watching the trailer for No Country for Old Men one too many times, he starting talking in the Killer Voice and eventually freaked out his entire family as well as himself. I doubt he’s alone. Still, I’ll risk it and take Bardem. Read More

Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There

Ruby Dee, American Gangster

Saoirse Ronan, Atonement

Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone

Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Will win: I’m not even discussing Ruby Dee. I hope her invitation gets lost in the mail. Maybe we can recruit Stifler from American Pie to stop her at the door? “Oscars ceremony? What Oscars ceremony? Try the house down the street.” (And yes, I know she won at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. I’m trying not to think about this.) Read More

Juno – Diablo Cody

Lars and the Real Girl – Nancy Oliver

Michael Clayton – Tony Gilroy

Ratatouille – Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco

The Savages – Tamara Jenkins

Will win: Strange group, huh? Usually the two screenplay categories combine to include the five Best Picture nominees, as well as five more movies that are essentially the second tier of Best Picture nominees – call it the Academy’s way of constructing a Top 10 list. But while the Ratatouille nod makes perfect sense – the movie tells a resolutely original story – I’m baffled by the nominations for Lars and the Real Girl (for which screenplay is its only selection) and The Savages (which also has Laura Linney, but that’s it). If I had to rationalize the Lars and the Real Girl pick, I guess you could argue that its most distinctive quality is its wacky premise, which is obviously screenplay-related. But The Savages? No clue. Regardless, if either of those movies wins, then I’m a huge Lars von Trier fan. Read More

Atonement – Christopher Hampton

Away from Her – Sarah Polley

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly – Ronald Harwood

No Country for Old Men – Ethan Coen, Joel Coen

There Will Be Blood – Paul Thomas Anderson

Will win: Yikes. This one’s a mess. We can eliminate Away from Her without second thought, but the rest are all legitimate contenders. The pitfall here is that a movie’s overall buzz doesn’t necessarily equate to its odds of winning in the screenplay categories. The Academy, believe it or not, actually seems to focus on a movie’s writing when appraising screenplays, rather than just conforming with the Best Picture favorite. This is noble – after all, each individual category is supposed to be evaluated independently, not in a relative context, although that’s rarely the case – but it also makes handicapping more difficult. And yes, I know I’m complaining. Read More