Best Adapted Screenplay

Unlike with the supporting actor and actress fields, both screenplay categories are a bit trickier to predict this year. Let’s get to it.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
Birdman—Alejandro González Iñárritu et al.
Boyhood—Richard Linklater
Foxcatcher—E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman
The Grand Budapest Hotel—Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness
Nightcrawler—Dan Gilroy

WILL WIN
It’s tempting to view this as a duel between the two Best Picture favorites in Birdman and Boyhood. But Academy voters tend to broaden their scope a bit with this category, which makes me lean away from the prizefighters and toward The Grand Budapest Hotel. It triumphed at the BAFTAs, and it defeated Boyhood at the Writers’ Guild (Birdman was deemed ineligible). It’s also more writerly than the other two screenplays, with snappy dialogue and a quirky time-jumping structure. Given that the two heavy hitters have failed to separate from one another, I don’t think either has the tidal wave of support that would bring this award in with the tide. The Grand Budapest Hotel bags yet another trophy.

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