Best Original Song

Welcome to Oscars Week! If you’re less than excited about Sunday’s annual cinematic gala, you might well be a producer for the show! Suffice it to say that it’s been a rough month for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences, as they introduced one dubious revision to the telecast after another—no live song performances; no prior year’s winners as presenters; shunting the announcements for four categories to commercial breaks—only to walk back each change in the face of virulent criticism from the moviegoing public. (And let’s not forget the risible “Best Popular Film” category that was introduced in August before being mercifully scrapped a month later.) Enthusiasm for the ceremony may vary, but this parade of failures has left the sour impression that the people who care least about the Oscars happen to be in charge of running this year’s Oscars.

For my part, I no longer view the Oscars as hugely important. But I still think they have value, both as a historical record—literally, what were they thinking?—and as an opportunity to honor a bunch of movies that are, by and large, pretty good. Sure, I disagree with the Academy’s chosen winners more often than not, but that disagreement doesn’t automatically render their selections terrible. Besides, the arguments are part of the fun.

And so, over the next week, we’ll be running through our predictions and preferences in all 21 features categories (sorry, I don’t weigh in on the shorts because I know absolutely nothing about them). Today, we’re ripping through eight below-the-line fields that I dismissively dub “the odds and ends”, which is just a way to distinguish them from the five other crafts categories that I’m more passionate about. If you happen to care deeply about sound mixing or costume design, I apologize if I’ve insulted you. Also, get over it. Read More

Who cares about the Oscars? Nobody, and also lots of people. It’s silly to ascribe too much importance to a self-congratulatory festival, but at the same time, the Academy Awards can help raise the profile of good movies and the talented people who make them. As long as you don’t take them too seriously, you just might end up enjoying yourself.

Plus, the Oscars are an opportunity for uninformed speculation, which is always fun. Over the next five days, we’ll be predicting the winners in the 21 feature categories (sorry, I ignore the shorts). These prognostications are the result of tireless data mining and thorough research. Or I’m just winging it.

Today, we’re running through eight below-the-line fields that can easily swing your office pool if you don’t pay attention. Let’s dig in: Read More

Welcome to Oscars Week! Over the next four days, we’ll be predicting the winners for each of the 21 feature categories at this Sunday’s Academy Awards. Today, we’re starting with some below-the-line fields—these categories don’t exactly capture the attention of mainstream movie audiences, but they could wreak havoc on Oscar pools. Let’s dig in. Read More

The 88th Academy Awards are airing on Sunday. Are you excited? Neither am I. OK, that’s a lie. As much as we complain about the Oscars, whether because of their racial homogeneity or their self-congratulatory atmosphere, the fact remains that they routinely honor some pretty good movies. Besides, the Manifesto has been obsessively analyzing the Oscars for the last 14 years, so we aren’t about to stop now.

This means that we have 21 feature awards to predict between now and Sunday. (Per usual, I’m excluding the three short-subject categories.) Today, we’ll be looking at a number of below-the-line categories that tend to be buried early in the show. For those interested in some sexier (but still technical) fields, you can find our analysis of those here. Tomorrow and Saturday, we’ll dig into the high-profile categories. Read More

With the Oscars airing on Sunday, and with the Manifesto having finally wrapped up its rankings of every 2014 release, it’s time to get down to brass tacks and analyze the 21 feature categories. We’ll begin with the technical categories. This post will cover “the little guys”—the fields you probably don’t care that much about but that nevertheless recognize important contributions to a movie’s overall worth.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

NOMINEES
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

WILL WIN
The LEGO Movie. Guh. But with the year’s most critically and commercially successful animated film mysteriously missing the cut, there’s a bit of intrigue to be found here. The Boxtrolls has its admirers, but in all likelihood, this will come down to a battle between two studio-backed heavy hitters in Fox’s How to Train Your Dragon 2 and Disney’s (not Pixar’s, as my friend Katie chastised me last month) Big Hero 6. The former is arguably at a disadvantage because it’s a sequel, whereas the latter is an original production (in case you’re confused, Big Hero 6 is not the sixth installment in the “Big Hero” franchise). In the brief 13-year history of this category, the only retread to win the award is Toy Story 3 (defeating the original How to Train Your Dragon, in point of fact), and that was also a Best Picture nominee—How to Train Your Dragon 2 isn’t operating with that level of cachet. Still, it’s a more classically beautifully and stirring film than the fun but familiar Big Hero 6, and I’m guessing voters will respond to its childlike sense of wonder. How to Train Your Dragon 2 takes it.

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