Oscars 2018: The Odds and Ends

Welcome to Oscars Week! If you’re less than excited about Sunday’s annual cinematic gala, you might well be a producer for the show! Suffice it to say that it’s been a rough month for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences, as they introduced one dubious revision to the telecast after another—no live song performances; no prior year’s winners as presenters; shunting the announcements for four categories to commercial breaks—only to walk back each change in the face of virulent criticism from the moviegoing public. (And let’s not forget the risible “Best Popular Film” category that was introduced in August before being mercifully scrapped a month later.) Enthusiasm for the ceremony may vary, but this parade of failures has left the sour impression that the people who care least about the Oscars happen to be in charge of running this year’s Oscars.

For my part, I no longer view the Oscars as hugely important. But I still think they have value, both as a historical record—literally, what were they thinking?—and as an opportunity to honor a bunch of movies that are, by and large, pretty good. Sure, I disagree with the Academy’s chosen winners more often than not, but that disagreement doesn’t automatically render their selections terrible. Besides, the arguments are part of the fun.

And so, over the next week, we’ll be running through our predictions and preferences in all 21 features categories (sorry, I don’t weigh in on the shorts because I know absolutely nothing about them). Today, we’re ripping through eight below-the-line fields that I dismissively dub “the odds and ends”, which is just a way to distinguish them from the five other crafts categories that I’m more passionate about. If you happen to care deeply about sound mixing or costume design, I apologize if I’ve insulted you. Also, get over it.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

NOMINEES
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

WILL WIN
In the 17 years of this category’s existence, Pixar has won nine times, so it’s tempting to take Incredibles 2. It’s also tempting to take Isle of Dogs because it’s a freaking Wes Anderson movie. But as soon as Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse came out in December, it sucked up all of the oxygen in the room, receiving rapturous praise from critics and audiences alike. It should swing to an easy victory here.

SHOULD WIN
This might be the strongest field in this category’s history; I haven’t seen Mirai (it doesn’t come out on Netflix disc until April), but the other four all made my top 30 for the year. I’d be happy with any of them winning, but my heart belongs to Incredibles 2 for the way it merges eye-popping action with strong characters and poignant themes.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

NOMINEES
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

WILL WIN
Pro tip: Period pieces and fantasy films rule the roost here. Of course, that doesn’t exactly narrow things down, given that this field is composed of four period pieces and a fantasy film. But unless voters are particularly enamored with the Wakandan armorings of Black Panther, I suspect that this will come down to a battle between The Favourite and Mary Queen of Scots. I’ll take The Favourite, partly because it’s a Best Picture nominee, partly because it’s well-equipped to rampage through the craft categories.

SHOULD WIN
The Favourite.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Aquaman
Colette
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Mary Queen of Scots
Suspiria

I realize that I’ve included six movies on what should be a five-film ballot, but sue me, I don’t feel like breaking the tie. It’s curious that the Academy shut out Crazy Rich Asians entirely; this would have been the ideal spot to highlight that smash hit’s triumphant lifestyle porn.

The Manifesto’s winner: The Favourite.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

NOMINEES
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

WILL WIN
Obviously it’s going to be Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, the supposedly heartfelt Mr. Rogers doc which is the balm that we so sorely need in these trying times and which is a surefi—wait, it wasn’t even nominated?? Well that complicates matters. Anyway, one of my many failings as a movie critic is that I don’t really watch documentaries (though I did see RBG, and I hope the winner is, er, not that), which means that I’m flying somewhat blind here. The biggest critical hit is probably Minding the Gap, about skateboarders in northern Illinois. But the biggest audience hit is Free Solo, about the death-defying exploits of Alex Honnold, the possibly deranged rock climber. Throw in the insane degree of difficulty of capturing Honnold’s feats on camera, and Free Solo has the edge.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

NOMINEES
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

WILL WIN
This is tricky. It’s tempting to just pick Roma and be done with it. But given that voters will be ranking Roma on their Best Picture ballots, will they feel compelled to pick something else here? If so, then either Cold War or Shoplifters could pull the upset. But it’s probably best not to overthink things. Roma takes it.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Burning (South Korea)
Cold War (Poland)
Happy as Lazzaro (Italy)
Revenge (France)
Roma (Mexico)

As usual, the disconnected timing between Oscar eligibility and U.S. distribution means that there’s limited overlap between what’s eligible and what audiences have seen (though I did at least catch a majority of the nominees this year). Also as usual: Ignoring the arcana surrounding the nomination process, there were plenty of compelling movies from around the globe that reached American shores in 2018. Cold War and Roma are worthy Oscar nominees, while both Burning and Happy as Lazzaro overcome their slow starts and transform into something mesmerizing (if in decidedly different ways). Finally, as a technical matter, I don’t know if Revenge featured enough spoken French (as opposed to English) to qualify; I also don’t care.

The Manifesto’s winner: Revenge.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

NOMINEES
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

WILL WIN
Vice. Because that really was Christian Bale.

SHOULD WIN
Mary Queen of Scots. Because that really was Margot Robbie.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
The Favourite
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

The Manifesto’s winner: Mary Queen of Scots.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

NOMINEES
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs—“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” (David Rawlings and Gillian Welch)
Black Panther—“All the Stars” (Kendrick Lamar, SZA)
Mary Poppins Returns—“The Place Where Lost Things Go” (Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman)
RBG—“I’ll Fight” (Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson)
A Star is Born—“Shallow” (Lady Gaga et al.)

WILL WIN
Take a guess.

SHOULD WIN
I’ve joined the chorus of critics dismissing the songs in Mary Poppins Returns as generally unmemorable, and I have no real recollection of “The Place Where Lost Things Go”. But at least it’s a song that took place during the actual movie; the nominated songs from Black Panther and RBG both played over the closing credits, which in my mind disqualifies them. Anyway, that sudden musical sequence from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs is a hell of a thing, but let’s not fool ourselves. “Shallow” takes this in a walkover.

BEST SOUND

NOMINEES (MIXING)
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

NOMINEES (EDITING)
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma

WILL WIN
Uh oh. With the two sound categories, it’s generally best to locate the biggest technical achievement; recent double-winners include Dunkirk, Mad Max: Fury Road, and Gravity. But this year, is that big achievement First Man, or is it Roma? The former is brawnier and louder, but the latter is the most technically exquisite film of 2018. Further complicating matters is that musicals can often take center stage (sorry) in the Mixing field, which is why A Star Is Born shows up there but not in the Editing group; that could lead to a split. Plus, Bohemian Rhapsody is in some ways a musical, especially with its celebrated Live Aid sequence. And what about A Quiet Place, which is literally built around the terrifying presence of sound itself?

So, yeah, this is tough. Shooting from the hip, I’ll take A Star Is Born for Mixing and First Man for Editing. Anyone else super-confident on these?

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Annihilation
First Man
A Quiet Place
Thoroughbreds

Thoroughbreds never stood a chance here, even if its rowing machine was perhaps the most expertly deployed sound effect of any movie this year. But come on, Academy, did you not see Annihilation? Did you not have nightmares about that fucking bear screaming for help while it was an inch from your face?

The Manifesto’s winner: A Quiet Place.

More tomorrow.