Oscars 2018: The Supporting Actors

Thus far in our Oscars rundown, we’ve looked at the odds and ends, the big techies, and the screenplays. We’re now getting to the categories that viewers (and even non-viewers) tend to be more passionate about, beginning with the supporting actors.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

NOMINEES
Amy Adams—Vice
Marina de Tavira—Roma
Regina King—If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone—The Favourite
Rachel Weisz—The Favourite

WILL WIN
King seems to be in the lead here. She wasn’t nominated at either the BAFTAs or the Screen Actors Guild, but that’s actually less indicative of flagging momentum than if she’d lost in either of those races. She also won at the Golden Globes, and besides, her competition isn’t all that strong. With Stone and Weisz potentially splitting the vote for The Favourite, the only potential challenger I see is Adams, who’s yet to win an Oscar despite five prior nominations. She’ll finally claim the prize someday, but not this year. Regina King takes it.

SHOULD WIN
King is very good in Beale Street, but her highlights are mostly restricted to one bravura sequence. Adams is solid in Vice but less than her usual exceptional self. De Tavira lands some understated blows in Roma, but it’s hard for any actor to stand out amid Alfonso Cuarón’s aesthetic brilliance. I consider both Stone and Weisz to be leads in The Favourite, but if I’m playing by the Academy’s rules, then they’re comfortably in front of the pack here. Flipping a coin, I’ll take Weisz.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Kayli Carter—Private Life
Zoe Kazan—The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Haley Lu Richardson—Support the Girls
Millicent Simmonds—A Quiet Place
Michelle Yeoh—Crazy Rich Asians

Carter brings genuine sweetness to a movie that’s brimming with pain. Kazan is a soft-spoken heartbreaker, while Simmonds will shatter you without making a sound. Richardson’s buoyancy is the perfect counterpoint to Regina Hall’s steeliness. Yeoh ballasts Crazy Rich Asians’ fizziness with exquisite severity.

The Manifesto’s winner: Millicent Simmonds—A Quiet Place.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Sofia Boutella—Hotel Artemis
Claire Foy—First Man
Kathryn Newton—Ben Is Back
Gina Rodriguez—Annihilation
Tilda Swinton—Suspiria

Boutella makes every movie she’s in better, no matter how silly the material. Foy adds brittle texture to the “supportive wife” role. Newton is a pendulum of emotion in just a handful of scenes. Rodriguez’s paranoia is Annihilation’s scariest special effect (OK, maybe second-scariest). Swinton, I mean, come on.

Honorable mention: Nina Arianda—Stan & Ollie; Mackenzie Davis—Tully; Isla Fisher—Tag; Isabelle Nélisse—The Tale.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

NOMINEES
Mahershala Ali—Green Book
Adam Driver—BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott—A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant—Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell—Vice

WILL WIN
I used to think that this was Grant’s award to lose. Suffice to say he’s lost it. Mahershala Ali has won the precursor triple crown, claiming victory at SAG, the Globes, and the BAFTAs. Once an American topples a Briton in the latter’s stomping grounds, game over.

SHOULD WIN
Grant. The rest of this group is fine—with the exception of Rockwell, whose work in Vice is replacement-level—but Grant’s brilliantly acerbic performance is the only one that leaves a mark.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Rafael Casal—Blindspotting
David Denman—Puzzle
Richard E. Grant—Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Russell Hornsby—The Hate U Give
Michael B. Jordan—Black Panther

Casal is a delightful id, which makes Blindspotting’s sudden tonal shifts all the more surprising and powerful. Denman is a revelation, all broken pride and baffled entitlement; we’re no longer allowed to refer to him as “Pam’s boyfriend from The Office”. Hornsby courses with barely repressed rage. Jordan’s anger is more pronounced, and more devastating.

The Manifesto’s winner: Michael B. Jordan—Black Panther.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Sterling K. Brown—The Predator
John Gallagher Jr.—The Miseducation of Cameron Post
Hugh Grant—Paddington 2
Armie Hammer—On the Basis of Sex
Tim Blake Nelson—The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Brown’s nonchalant amorality makes The Predator far more fun than it deserves to be. Gallagher delivers a master class in self-loathing. Grant is pure joy. Hammer is slippery and charming. (He’s pretty good in Sorry to Bother You, too.) Nelson’s titular troubadour is one of the Coens’ most memorable characters.

Honorable mention: John Cena—Blockers; Colman Domingo—If Beale Street Could Talk; Jon Hamm—Bad Times at the El Royale; Jason Isaacs—The Death of Stalin; Jack Lowden—Mary Queen of Scots; Jason Ritter—The Tale; Mark Rylance—Ready Player One; Jamey Sheridan—Lizzie; Stephen Yeun—Burning.

Coming tomorrow: the lead actors.