Oscars 2018: The Screenplays

Thus far in our walkthrough of the Oscars, we’ve looked at some miscellaneous technical categories and some higher-profile technical fields. Now we’re getting to the good stuff, beginning with the screenplays.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs—Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman—Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?—Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk—Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born—Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters

WILL WIN
A few nights ago, Can You Ever Forgive Me? claimed the top prize at the Writers’ Guild awards, which in theory should push it toward frontrunner status here. But I’m wary of using the guild as a proxy for the Oscars, especially once you start factoring in eligibility issues. And while I don’t automatically restrict myself to Best Picture contenders in the screenplay races, it’s an uphill climb for the outliers; the last winner in either screenplay category without a corresponding Best Picture nomination was Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind in 2004, and the last winner in the adapted category was Gods and Monsters, way back in 1998.

Given all that, I’m skeptical that Can You Ever Forgive Me? can muscle its way to victory here, especially since its script—unlike the one for Eternal Sunshine—isn’t especially writerly. Instead, I’ll take BlacKkKlansman, which is a more dialogue-driven film than A Star Is Born.

SHOULD WIN
I’m always dubious of my own qualifications to assess this category, given that I’m rarely familiar with the underlying source material. But evaluating these contenders on their own merits, the story that moved me most was If Beale Street Could Talk, which framed its gentle romance in the context of a societal inferno.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Incredibles 2—Brad Bird
Leave No Trace—Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini
On Chesil Beach—Ian McEwan
Ralph Breaks the Internet—Phil Johnston and Pamela Ribon
Widows—Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen

I recognize the strangeness of highlighting two sequels in a category that prizes originality (even for adapted material), but both Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet seized on the premises of their forebears in smart and exciting ways. Also, don’t sleep on Widows, which overlaid its provocative material onto a sharp, knotty script that expertly wove its many characters together.

The Manifesto’s winner: On Chesil Beach—Ian McEwan.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
The Favourite—Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed—Paul Schrader
Green Book—Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly
Roma—Alfonso Cuarón
Vice—Adam McKay

WILL WIN
If the guild awards were less than useful in predicting the winner for adapted screenplay, they’re downright useless here; the champion with the guild (Eighth Grade) isn’t nominated for an Oscar, while one of the nominees here (The Favourite) wasn’t eligible with the guild. Yeesh. In any event, the smart money is on The Favourite; Roma has too little dialogue, Vice is a mess, and Green Book… well, maybe I shouldn’t be so quick to discount Green Book. But screw it, I’m taking The Favourite anyway.

SHOULD WIN
The Favourite, and handily.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Eighth Grade—Bo Burnham
Happy as Lazzaro—Alice Rohrwacher
Private Life—Tamara Jenkins
Thoroughbreds—Cory Finley
Tully—Diablo Cody

It’s arguably silly for me to omit The Favourite, but I’d rather use my ballot to honor some movies that have gained less recognition. I’ve already written at length about Eighth Grade, Thoroughbreds, and Tully, so I’ll use this space to highlight two strong Netflix releases in Happy as Lazzaro and Private Life; the former is a meditative historical drama that suddenly transforms into a magical fable, while the latter is a poignant character study of a desperate marriage. Both are well worth a look the next time you’re scrolling through your streaming queue.

The Manifesto’s winner: Thoroughbreds—Cory Finley.

Coming tomorrow: the supporting actors.