Oscars 2019: The Supporting Actors

Thus far in our ongoing Oscars analysis, we’ve looked at some odds and ends and some technical categories. Today, we get to the good stuff: the supporting actor and actress races.

One curious thing about this year’s Oscars is that all four of the acting awards are virtually sewn up; the BAFTAs, the Golden Globes, and the Screen Actors Guild all honored the same performers in each category (ignoring the Globes’ musical/comedy offshoots for lead actor, neither of whom is even nominated here). This makes predicting these particular Oscar races rather boring. But who cares? The juicy stuff with actors isn’t who will win, but who should—and, more importantly, who appears on your own personal ballot. The quality of acting in cinema these days is extraordinarily strong, so narrowing down each category to a proper quintet is always a daunting challenge.

Who made the Manifesto’s cut? Read on to find out.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

NOMINEES
Kathy Bates—Richard Jewell
Laura Dern—Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson—Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh—Little Women
Margot Robbie—Bombshell

WILL WIN
Dern. Move along.

SHOULD WIN
Bates is the only nominee here whose work is replacement-level. I’m aggressively mixed on Jojo Rabbit, but I do admire Johansson’s performance in the movie; still, I don’t know that she moves the needle all that much outside of a few scenes. The same is true of Dern in Marriage Story; she’s very good, and she has a classic Big Speech, but she doesn’t land any huge emotional punches in a film where Johansson and Adam Driver both wreck you. (Counterpoint: She’s a supporting actress! She isn’t supposed to draw attention away from the leads, she’s supposed to support them! Yeah, but still.)

Robbie and Pugh, on the other hand, are both outstanding. I’ve heard rumblings that Robbie was nominated for the wrong movie, and that she should be here instead for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I get that, but she’s flat-out great in Bombshell; the film itself is uneven, but it flares to life whenever she’s on screen. Still, my heart belongs to Pugh, and not just because she gave three Oscar-worthy performances this year (see: Midsommar and Fighting with My Family). She’s just devastating in Little Women, and triumphant too.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Cho Yeo Jeong—Parasite
Jennifer Lopez—Hustlers
Thomasin McKenzie—Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh—Little Women
Margot Robbie—Bombshell

Cho adds nuance to a “simple” character, complicating Parasite’s notion of heroes and villains. Lopez breathes fire; McKenzie shatters hearts.

The Manifesto’s winner: Jennifer Lopez—Hustlers.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Paula Beer—Transit
Juliette Binoche—High Life
Billie Lourd—Booksmart
Gugu Mbatha-Raw—Motherless Brooklyn
Taylor Russell—Waves

Beer gives perhaps the year’s most enigmatic performance, tantalizing you with her character’s uncertain motivations. Binoche is a hypnotic demoness. Lourd lights up the screen every time her character literally pops into frame. Mbatha-Raw adds emotional heft to Motherless Brooklyn’s cold noir homage. Russell is devastating in her fragility.

Honorable mention: Jennifer Carpenter—Dragged Across Concrete; Eva Green—Dumbo; Melanie Scrofano—Ready or Not; Anya Taylor-Joy—Glass.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

NOMINEES
Tom Hanks—A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins—The Two Popes
Al Pacino—The Irishman
Joe Pesci—The Irishman
Brad Pitt—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

WILL WIN
Pitt. See how easy this is?

SHOULD WIN
With the exception of Pesci, all of these nominees are arguably co-leads. Which is fine; I’m either too old or too tired to whinge about category fraud at this point. They’re also all very good, with the exception of Hopkins, who supplies a moderately entertaining performance in a decidedly unentertaining movie. Pacino is a ton of fun in The Irishman, but I can’t shake the feeling that his blustery turn as Jimmy Hoffa is tonally dissonant with the film’s mournful gravity; by contrast, Pesci’s beautiful understatement intensifies its emotional weight. Hanks—who somehow went 19 years between nominations despite a phenomenal run earlier this decade that included Captain Phillips, Bridge of Spies, and The Post—is terrific in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, locating moments of hesitation and doubt beneath Mr. Rogers’ constantly smiling demeanor. And in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Pitt delivers his best and most relaxed performance in ages, full of casual toughness and effortless charm.

So, I’d be OK with any of Hanks, Pesci, or Pitt winning. (Note: This is unusual.) Forced to pick, I’ll take Pesci.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Tom Hanks—A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Joe Pesci—The Irishman
Brad Pitt—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Wesley Snipes—Dolemite Is My Name
Song Kang-ho—Parasite

Last year, of the 20 different actors nominated for Oscars, only one made my personal ballot. This year, three of them matched in a single category. Good job, Academy! Anyway, Snipes’ consistent disbelief is consistently hysterical, while Song’s slow-building anger gives Parasite its biggest jolt in a film full of them.

The Manifesto’s winner: Wesley Snipes—Dolemite Is My Name.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Jake Gyllenhaal—Spider-Man: Far From Home
Tory Kittles—Dragged Across Concrete
Sebastian Koch—Never Look Away
Sam Rockwell—Richard Jewell
Keith L. Williams—Good Boys

Gyllenhaal is fiendishly clever, giving the MCU one of its few memorable heavies. Kittles effortlessly exudes patient intelligence. Koch is a nightmare of power and entitlement. Rockwell elevates Richard Jewell above its pedestrian docudrama trappings. Williams is tender, wholesome, and hilarious.

Honorable mention: Jhon Narváez—Birds of Passage; Alessandro Nivola—The Art of Self-Defense; Jesse Plemons—El Camino.

Coming tomorrow: the lead actors.