Oscars 2019: The Lead Actors

Our Oscars analysis is entering its home stretch. Previously, we’ve looked at odds and ends, technical fields, and the supporting actor and actress races. Today, we’re looking at Best Actor and Best Actress. As discussed yesterday, the acting races this year are very boring to predict; they’re also very fun to analyze.

BEST ACTOR

NOMINEES
Antonio Banderas—Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver—Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix—Joker
Jonathan Pryce—The Two Popes

WILL WIN
Phoenix. And honestly, good for him. No, Joker isn’t my favorite Joaquin Phoenix performance—that would probably be Her, though The Master, Inherent Vice, and You Were Never Really Here might all put up a fight—but it’s still a very good one. He deserves to have a trophy on his shelf.

SHOULD WIN
Honestly, I’d be OK with anyone winning other than Pryce. I’m happy for Banderas; I didn’t respond to Pain and Glory as warmly as I’d hoped, but he’s still good in it, and it’s nice to see him finally get rewarded. I did respond far more favorably to Marriage Story than I’d expected, largely thanks to Driver’s brittle humanity. And as flawed as Joker is, Phoenix is mesmerizing throughout.

Still, this isn’t really close. DiCaprio has topped my own Oscar ballot a number of times—though not, of course, for the one movie where he actually won the Oscar—so perhaps this is simply a matter of subjective taste (as opposed to science?). Whatever it is, the man is simply phenomenal in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, lending a remarkable depth of feeling to his sad-sack has-been. He’s destined to lose again; somebody get him eight whiskey sours.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Leonardo DiCaprio—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Kelvin Harrison Jr.—Luce
Zachary Levi—Shazam!
Eddie Murphy—Dolemite Is My Name
Adam Sandler—Uncut Gems

Man this was tough. Each of the past two years, I’ve noted that the women in Hollywood (and elsewhere) have dominated their male counterparts in terms of sheer quantity of stellar performances. But in 2019, the men struck back; the year was simply littered with terrific work from male actors. Narrowing the field to five was virtually impossible.

But it had to be done. Harrison Jr. is a force of nature, all the more scary because he’s so tightly controlled. Levi is simply hysterical. Murphy locates wistfulness beneath his bravado. Sandler will have you covering your eyes, and also make sure you can’t look away.

The Manifesto’s winner: Leonardo DiCaprio—Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Daniel Craig—Knives Out
Adam Driver—Marriage Story
Andrew Garfield—Under the Silver Lake
Joaquin Phoenix—Joker
Ray Romano—Paddleton

Craig had more fun than any other lead actor in 2019. Garfield anchors an increasingly slipshod narrative with dimwitted brilliance. Romano uses restraint to devastating effect.

Honorable mention: Javier Bardem—Everybody Knows; Christian Bale—Ford v Ferrari; Willem Dafoe—The Lighthouse; Shia LaBeouf—The Peanut Butter Falcon (probably supporting, but oh well); George MacKay—1917 (this movie had actors and everything!); James McAvoy—Glass; Dev Patel—The Wedding Guest (did you see this movie? It’s good!); Franz Rogowski—Transit; Matthias Schoenaerts—The Mustang.

BEST ACTRESS

NOMINEES
Cynthia Erivo—Harriet
Scarlett Johansson—Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan—Little Women
Charlize Theron—Bombshell
Renée Zellweger—Judy

WILL WIN
Zellweger. Sigh.

SHOULD WIN
Look, I don’t hate Zellweger’s performance in Judy. She’s good, and she manages to play a few whimsical grace notes within such a formulaic role. But the movie is so tired and clichéd, it’s difficult for me to develop any real enthusiasm toward anyone in it. That more or less describes how I feel about Harriet as well; it’s a better film than Judy, but it’s awkward and simplistic, and as skilled as Erivo is, she struggles to bring real depth to it. (She’s currently doing much more interesting work on HBO’s The Outsider.) And Theron is persuasive in Bombshell without being especially interesting.

That leaves Johansson and Ronan. Both of them are excellent. Only one of them is Saoirse Ronan.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Jessie Buckley—Wild Rose
Scarlett Johansson—Marriage Story
Julianne Moore—Gloria Bell
Lupita Nyong’o—Us
Saoirse Ronan—Little Women

Buckley delivers a classic Oscar-ready performance, following a coming-of-age arc but never resorting to weepy histrionics. (Plus, she sings!) Johansson exudes tenderness and doubt with heartbreaking clarity. Moore makes the ordinary extraordinary. Nyong’o is terrified and terrifying. Ronan, stop it.

The Manifesto’s winner: Saoirse Ronan—Little Women.

THE MANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Awkwafina—The Farewell
Adèle Haenel—Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Sienna Miller—American Woman
Elisabeth Moss—Her Smell
Florence Pugh—Midsommar

Awkwafina never overdoes it, which is what makes The Farewell so powerful. Haenel can stop your heart with her eyes. Miller showcases heretofore unknown range. Moss is ferocious. Pugh is fear.

Honorable mention: Elle Fanning—Teen Spirit; Aisling Franciosi—The Nightingale; Keira Knightley—Official Secrets (forever and always); Gugu Mbatha-Raw—Fast Color; Florence Pugh—Fighting with My Family (she had quite the year); Aenne Schwarz—Alles Ist Gut.

Coming tomorrow: The final four.