Yesterday, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced their nominations for the 93rd Oscars. The list was met with the usual cacophony of bitterness, gratitude, and exasperation. The selections were all terrible, except for the ones that weren’t; the omissions were egregious, except for those who were justly excluded.
Same as it ever was. It remains to be seen how the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic will affect the actual telecast of this year’s Oscars (scheduled for April 25). And of course, the disease’s devastating yearlong spread carried significant consequences for the movie industry; the trickle-down effects surely included how voters perceived the various contending films (or how many they even watched). But for one day, at least, normalcy was restored in our collective outcries and appreciations.
Is this a sign of a return to the Before Times, or an isolated blip amid a continuing shift in the industry? We’ll find out. In the meantime, here’s some quickie analysis of our predictions in 13 major categories, and where the respective races currently stand.
BEST PICTURE
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Sound of MetalSoul
Analysis: I’m not surprised by Sound of Metal cracking the field (though I am pleased), nor am I shocked that Soul failed to make the cut (though I am disappointed). I am surprised, though, that Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom also missed out. The Academy ended up with 8 movies rather than 9, and while it’s always a mystery how the secret sauce is made, that would suggest that several of the contenders possess particularly passionate followings. (Remember, this is the final year of a floating field of 5-10 Best Picture nominees, with a minimum of 5% of #1 votes needed to crack the category; next year, the Academy will return to a full 10-film slate.) Or maybe Ma Rainey split the vote with One Night in Miami, a similarly stagy examination of Black history in America.
Current favorite: Nomadland. Move along.
Glaring omission: Never Rarely Sometimes Always. No Best Picture lineup will ever match my personal top 10, but in overlooking Eliza Hittman’s gem, the Academy failed to honor a remarkable movie that’s both thematically trenchant and beautifully executed.
BEST DIRECTOR
Lee Isaac Chung—Minari
Emerald Fennell—Promising Young Woman
David Fincher—Mank
Chloé Zhao—NomadlandAaron Sorkin—The Trial of the Chicago 7 Thomas Vinterberg—Another Round
Analysis: Sorkin’s miss here would seem to seriously dent The Trial of the Chicago 7’s Best Picture chances (though I suppose there’s always Argo as a counterexample). I’ve yet to see Another Round (it just got added to Hulu!), but I’ll always admire Vinterberg’s The Celebration (along with The Hunt), so I’m looking forward to watching his latest.
Current favorite: Probably Zhao, though given the Academy’s recent willingness to diverge from the Best Picture winner here, I’m not ruling anyone out besides Vinterberg.
Glaring omission: Autumn de Wilde—Emma. The music video veteran’s first feature was a sublime experience, and an expertly directed one as well.
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day—The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby—Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand—Nomadland
Carey Mulligan—Promising Young Woman
Comments: One of the two categories that I hit perfectly. This was not an especially impressive achievement. (For the record, my total hit rate was a dismal 51-for-68, good for a measly 75%. Yikes.)
Current favorite: McDormand, though I’m hearing rumors about a Mulligan push. And by “rumors” I mean “people on Twitter saying they’d vote for Mulligan if they could”.
Glaring omission: Julia Garner—The Assistant. As is often the case, the pool of talent in this category was incredibly deep this year—this is why there’s no such thing as a snub—but that won’t stop me from lamenting the Academy’s failure to recognize this brittle, heartbreaking performance.
BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed—Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins—The Father
Steven Yeun—MinariMad Mikkelsen—Another Round Gary Oldman—Mank
Analysis: Oldman replacing Mikkelsen is hardly a shock. And if you find it questionable that Another Round scored a Best Director nomination for Vinterberg but failed to achieve recognition for its leading man, remember that, while all Academy members vote on each category’s winner, the nominations themselves are determined by members of the respective branches.
Current favorite: Boseman. This won’t be close.
Glaring omission: Hugh Jackman—Bad Education. I don’t care if this was technically ineligible because HBO acquired it and distributed on TV even though basically the same thing happened with Judas and the Black Messiah and gosh the Academy’s rules are just super-dumb. It’s a movie that came out in 2020, and Jackman delivers a career-best performance.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova—Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close—Hillbilly Elegy
Amanda Seyfried—Mank
Youn Yuh-jung—MinariJodie Foster—The Mauritanian Olivia Colman—The Father
Analysis: Very happy to see Bakalova show up here. Also, turns out that my suspicions were correct, and that The Mauritanian in fact does not exist.
Current favorite: None. This seems like a toss of a five-sided die at this point.
Glaring omission: Gina Rodriguez—Kajillionaire. The Jane the Virgin star has been doing solid work on the big screen for years, but she finds another gear here, bringing much-needed ballast to Miranda July’s precious dramedy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen—The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya—Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr.—One Night in MiamiChadwick Boseman—Da 5 Bloods Paul Raci—Sound of MetalJared Leto—The Little Things Lakeith Stanfield—Judas and the Black Messiah
Analysis: Raci showing up isn’t a surprise, but Stanfield certainly is; most prognosticators had slotted him into the lead category (where he was considered a major long shot), but voters obviously disagreed. I could quibble about so-called “category fraud” and grouse about how Stanfield and Kaluuya are both essentially co-leads, but I lack the energy for that particular brand of aggravation.
Current favorite: In advance of the nominations, I would have bet on Kaluuya, but now the obvious concern is that he might split the vote with Stanfield. I’m guessing he still pulls it out, though.
Glaring omission: Hugh Grant—The Gentlemen. OK, this isn’t exactly “glaring”, but Grant has an absolute blast in Guy Ritchie’s mob fest, and I like to imagine the alternate reality where the Academy gave such a delightfully profane performance its due.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Minari—Lee Isaac Chung
Promising Young Woman—Emerald Fennell
The Trial of the Chicago 7—Aaron SorkinMank—Jack Fincher Judas and the Black Messiah—Will Berson and Shaka KingPalm Springs—Andy Siara Sound of Metal—Darius Marder and Abraham Marder
Analysis: Palm Springs was always a stretch here, but Mank missing is a major surprise. It’s the comfortable leader in terms of total nominations with 10 (five other Best Picture nominees have six apiece), but this would seem to signal a major blow to its chances; it’s possible that it doesn’t take home any hardware (similar to The Irishman, which went 0-for-10 a year ago).
Current favorite: Sorkin already has one statuette (for The Social Network), but it’s easy to imagine the Academy again falling for his rapid-fire dialogue. But Promising Young Woman could score here instead.
Glaring omission: This category seems mostly fine (I still haven’t seen Minari or Promising Young Woman, grr), but it also strikes me as a missed opportunity to highlight some less typical scripts. I already mentioned Palm Springs, but what about the queer love story of Happiest Season? The quippy comedy of Straight Up? The probing philosophizing of Soul?
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Father—Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
Nomadland—Chloé Zhao
One Night in Miami—Kemp PowersI’m Thinking of Ending Things—Charlie Kaufman Borat Subsequent Moviefilm—Sacha Baron Cohen et al.Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom—Ruben Santiago-Hudson The White Tiger—Ramin Bahrani
Analysis: I’m not sure which interloper here is more surprising: the improv-heavy awkwardness of the Borat sequel, or the familiar rags-to-riches story of The White Tiger. Curveballs are fun!
Current favorite: Zhao, who could feasibly pick up four individual awards for Nomadland.
Glaring omission: Unpregnant—Rachel Lee Goldenberg et al. Did anybody watch this movie? It’s really good!
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Judas and the Black Messiah—Sean Bobbitt
Mank—Erik Messerschmidt
News of the World—Dariusz Wolski
Nomadland—Joshua James Richards
The Trial of the Chicago 7—Phedon Papamichael
Analysis: Five-for-five, more like five by five.
Current favorite: I can’t rule out a Nomadland sweep, but I feel like Mank’s rich black-and-white aesthetic should play well here.
Glaring omission: Gretel & Hansel—Galo Olivares. Sure, this was never going to happen, but what a fairy-tale nomination it would have been!
BEST FILM EDITING
Nomadland—Chloé Zhao
Promising Young Woman—Frédéric Thoraval
Sound of Metal—Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
The Trial of the Chicago 7—Alan BaumgartenMank—Kirk Baxter The Father—Yorgos Lamprinos
Analysis: I would really like to see The Father!
Current favorite: No clue. This award has skewed technical over the past two decades, so maybe Sound of Metal?
Glaring omission: Straight Up—Keith Funkhouser. This smart and entertaining rom-com unfolds with unusual visual snap, and its sharp editing is crucial to its success.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
News of the World—James Newton Howard
Soul—Trent Reznor and Atticus RossThe Midnight Sky—Alexandre Desplat Da 5 Bloods—Terence BlanchardTenet—Ludwig Göransson Mank—Trent Reznor and Atticus RossThe Trial of the Chicago 7—Daniel Pemberton Minari—Emile Mosseri
Analysis: Ouch.
Current favorite: I still feel like Soul is the big player here, but obviously the double-nom for Reznor and Ross could complicate matters.
Glaring omission: Ammonite—Volker Bertelmann and Dustin O’Halloran. This movie is amazing, and you are all bad people for either not watching it or not liking it.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mank
News of the World
TenetEmma The FatherThe Trial of the Chicago 7 Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Analysis: I’m pleased that Emma received two Oscar nominations (for costume design and makeup/hairstyling), but it should’ve had about 10, and you people are monsters.
Current favorite: Either Mank or Tenet.
Glaring omission: Swallow. Sure, the movie is terrifying, but don’t tell me you wouldn’t kill to live in that house.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
TenetMank Love and Monsters
Analysis: Guess I should learn what Love and Monsters is.
Current favorite: If Tenet doesn’t win this, I will be perplexed.
Glaring omission: The Invisible Man. Obviously.
Check back in April for more detailed, category-by-category analysis. Feel the excitement!
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.