Oh look, it’s time for another Oscars. Business as usual, right?
As I’ve written in the past, the upheaval that the film and entertainment industry has suffered at the hands of COVID-19 is perhaps one of the pandemic’s less significant calamities. But the turmoil that it sowed for the Oscars strikes me as self-inflicted. Last June, after surveying an uncertain cinematic landscape where theaters were closed and new releases were being continually postponed, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced that the eligibility window for this year’s Oscars—which typically covers films that came out during the prior calendar year—would be extended to February 2021, and that it was correspondingly delaying the ceremony itself until late April. (Nominations will finally be proclaimed on Monday.) The theory, I suppose, was to broaden the pool of potential nominees, as though flipping the datebook from December to January would magically herald the sudden arrival of high-quality pictures that were heretofore unavailable.
This was, of course, nonsense; 2020 was already a terrific year for cinema, and in widening the window, the Academy implicitly derided the fertile crop of existing releases. Beyond that, the decision carried the unfortunate consequence of further prolonging the interminable period colloquially known as Awards Season: the annual ritual of critics’ groups and governing bodies bestowing honors on various films and artists, culminating with the Oscars’ ultimate crowning of the best of the best. Hell, by the time 2020’s Best Picture is announced, campaigns for 2021 Oscar candidacy will practically be underway.
So be it. It’s still the Oscars, meaning it’s still relevant in terms of the historical record; if the Academy’s actual choices for the best movies of 2020 scarcely matter, that’s no different from any other year. With that in mind, per tradition, here are MovieManifesto’s predictions for the nominations in 13 major categories of the 93rd Academy Awards:
BEST PICTURE
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Soul
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Comments: I’m reasonably confident in five of these: Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. (Not coincidentally, those five mirror the quintet of Directors Guild nominees announced earlier this week.) Based on past history of the Academy’s floating field of 5-10 nominees, the total number should be either 8 or 9; in a year this diffuse, I’ll go with 9. That leaves roughly 7 movies competing for 4 slots. I’m taking 2 of those 4—Judas and the Black Messiah and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom—from the Producers Guild slate. The Father didn’t show up there, but it did land at both the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes, so I think it’s acquired enough momentum to get in. My most questionable pick is Soul; it didn’t score any major precursor nominations, but it seems to be very well-liked (because it’s great).
Potential upsets: One Night in Miami and Sound of Metal both scored Producers Guild noms, so either or both could easily show up in the Oscar field. I’ve agonized other whether to pick Paul Greengrass’ News of the World; its template screams “Best Picture nominee”, but its buzz seems to have stalled.
Longshots: Six months ago, Oscar forecasters were anticipating a victory for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods, but it’s barely discussed anymore (leading to accusations of mismanagement from Netflix, but never mind). The Producers Guild (which always features a full 10-film slate) went with Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, but come on. First Cow is the year’s odds-on critical favorite, but it hasn’t flexed any muscle on the circuit; the same is sadly true for Never Rarely Sometimes Always, one of 2020’s best films. And while the BAFTAs nominated The Mauritanian, I’m not convinced that movie actually exists.
BEST DIRECTOR
Lee Isaac Chung—Minari
Emerald Fennell—Promising Young Woman
David Fincher—Mank
Aaron Sorkin—The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloé Zhao—Nomadland
Comments: I’m being lazy here and just copying the nominees from the Directors Guild. Their selections rarely translate perfectly to the Oscars—the last five-for-five match came in 2009—but there’s no real indication this year which filmmaker might be on especially shaky ground. (Sorkin and Zhao strike me as the only safe bets.)
Potential upsets: As with Best Picture, the two likeliest interlopers here are Regina King for One Night in Miami and Darius Marder for Sound of Metal; both were nominated for Best First Feature at the DGA, so it isn’t as though they entirely lack guild support. And if The Father does crack the Best Picture field, Florian Zeller could certainly show up here as well.
Longshots: Any movie with a shot at a Best Picture nomination could score a corresponding nod for its director, so I can’t rule out Shaka King for Judas and the Black Messiah, George C. Wolfe for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Paul Greengrass for News of the World, Spike Lee for Da 5 Bloods, and Christopher Nolan for Tenet (sorry, couldn’t resist).
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day—The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby—Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand—Nomadland
Carey Mulligan—Promising Young Woman
Comments: Davis, McDormand, and Mulligan are all locks. Day and Kirby both earned Golden Globe nods, and while those don’t always align with the Academy, they seem like safe bets as well.
Potential upsets: None? This field seems weirdly set to me.
Longshots: Rosamund Pike in I Care a Lot (Golden Globe nod, but for “comedy”); Radha Blank in The Forty-Year-Old Version (BAFTA nod, but with their new jury system for acting categories, they’re now meaningless as Oscar predictors); Amy Adams for Hillbilly Elegy (no); Anya Taylor-Joy for Emma (I wish); Julia Garner for The Assistant (ibid); Sidney Flanigan for Never Rarely Sometimes Always (OK I’ll stop).
BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed—Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins—The Father
Mad Mikkelsen—Another Round
Steven Yeun—Minari
Comments: Four of these seem set. The question mark is Mikkelsen, but I like him sneaking in.
Potential upsets: The obvious replacement for Mikkelsen is Gary Oldman in Mank; he has the Screen Actors Guild nod, plus a Golden Globe nomination. But Oldman just won three years ago (for Darkest Hour), so I’m betting that the Academy looks elsewhere.
Longshots: Delroy Lindo for Da 5 Bloods (sorry, critics); Tom Hanks for News of the World (looking forward to actually seeing this movie someday!); Tahar Rahim for The Mauritanian (still skeptical); Kingsley Ben-Adir for One Night in Miami (is he lead or supporting?); Sacha Baron Cohen for Borat 2.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova—Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close—Hillbilly Elegy
Jodie Foster—The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried—Mank
Youn Yuh-jung—Minari
Comments: No one is safe! All of these picks are plausible, but there aren’t any locks in this category.
Potential upsets: My last cut was Olivia Colman for The Father, which is probably a mistake, given that she showed up at both SAG and the Globes. But whom would she knock off? Probably either Bakalova or Seyfried, but they’re both spectacular in their respective roles, and I still haven’t seen The Father, so, first-world problems and all that. I also wouldn’t rule out Dominique Fishback for Judas and the Black Messiah or Helena Zengel for News of the World.
Longshots: Ellen Burstyn for Pieces of a Woman (if the category were called Best Scene, she’d win handily); Saoirse Ronan for Ammonite (make it so!).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen—The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman—Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya—Judas and the Black Messiah
Jared Leto—The Little Things
Leslie Odom Jr.—One Night in Miami
Comments: Baron Cohen, Kaluuya, and Odom Jr. all seem like locks, and I’m reasonably confident in Boseman landing his second posthumous nomination (though he’s on surer footing in the Best Actor race). Many critics despise Leto’s turn in The Little Things (personally, I think he’s pretty good), but he keeps popping up, and it’s certainly a showy performance.
Potential upsets: There’s been a big critical push for Paul Raci’s understated work in Sound of Metal, but I’m not sure I see it translating to an Oscar nomination. It’s possible that The Trial of the Chicago 7 could score multiple nods (Mark Rylance? Frank Langella? Yahya Abdul-Mateen?), but that’s risky business. Alan Kim’s acceptance speech after his Critics’ Choice win went viral, but I doubt voters care. And while Bill Murray is wonderful in On the Rocks, nobody seemed to notice.
Longshots: David Strathairn for Nomadland (it’s McDormand’s movie); Glynn Turman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mank—Jack Fincher
Minari—Lee Isaac Chung
Palm Springs—Andy Siara
Promising Young Woman—Emerald Fennell
The Trial of the Chicago 7—Aaron Sorkin
Comments: The four likely Best Picture nominees all seem solid here, though Mank is less secure than the other three. I’m arguably reaching with Palm Springs, but the Academy does tend to reward high-concept screenplays.
Potential upsets: Any other plausible Best Picture nominee—namely, Judas and the Black Messiah, Sound of Metal, or Soul—could certainly show up here.
Longshots: You mean besides Palm Springs?
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Father—Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
I’m Thinking of Ending Things—Charlie Kaufman
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom—Ruben Santiago-Hudson
Nomadland—Chloé Zhao
One Night in Miami—Kemp Powers
Comments: The Father, Nomadland, and One Night in Miami are all safe. I’m not as confident in Ma Rainey, but it’s a very wordy production, which tends to help. I’m Thinking of Ending Things is something of a dart-throw, but Kaufman has long been popular with the Academy.
Potential upsets: News of the World is the likeliest interloper. Borat 2 is also plausible, but I remain skeptical of its Oscar prospects outside of Bakalova. And The White Tiger landed at both the BAFTAs and the Writers Guild (though Nomadland wasn’t eligible for the latter).
Longshots: Nah.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Judas and the Black Messiah—Sean Bobbitt
Mank—Erik Messerschmidt
News of the World—Dariusz Wolski
Nomadland—Joshua James Richards
The Trial of the Chicago 7—Phedon Papamichael
Comments: Mank, News of the World, and Nomadland are virtual locks, and while The Trial of the Chicago 7’s visuals aren’t flashy, yesterday’s nomination from the Cinematographers Guild seems to assure its presence here. Judas is basically a guess.
Potential upsets: The Russo Brothers’ Cherry, which still isn’t even available to most audiences (it arrives on Apple TV+ tomorrow), just scored a guild nod, so it’s certainly in the running. And The Mauritanian got a BAFTA nomination, for whatever that’s worth.
Longshots: Hey, anyone ever heard of this movie called Tenet?
BEST FILM EDITING
Mank—Kirk Baxter
Nomadland—Chloé Zhao
Promising Young Woman—Frédéric Thoraval
Sound of Metal—Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
The Trial of the Chicago 7—Alan Baumgarten
Comments: This is the one category where I feel totally clueless.
Potential upsets: The Father, News of the World, and every other movie that was released in the past 14 months.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Midnight Sky—Alexandre Desplat
News of the World—James Newton Howard
Soul—Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Tenet—Ludwig Göransson
The Trial of the Chicago 7—Daniel Pemberton
Comments: The Midnight Sky and News of the World both seem pretty solid. Reznor and Ross present an interesting case this year, as they scored both Soul and Mank; it’s possible that they could receive nominations for both (or just Mank), but I’m betting on their animated work. I’m not convinced that Warner Bros. informed the Academy that Tenet exists, but Göransson’s muscular compositions have a decent chance here. As for Chicago 7, why not?
Potential upsets: In addition to Mank, keep an eye on Minari, as well as Terence Blanchard’s score for Da 5 Bloods.
Longshots: Promising Young Woman? Ammonite?
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Emma
Mank
News of the World
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Comments: Mank and News of the World are in; unless Warner Bros. completely dropped the ball, Tenet should join them. The other two are both period pieces, which tend to fare well in this category.
Potential upsets: Netflix’s Rebecca probably deserves it, but reception to that film was so hostile, its Oscar chances seem dubious. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami are two other period pieces that could sneak in.
Longshots: Mulan, The Father, Ammonite, and who knows what else.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet
Comments: Per usual, the Academy has already whittled this race down to a 10-film shortlist (which impossibly doesn’t include The Invisible Man); the other contenders are Birds of Prey, Bloodshot, Love and Monsters, Soul, and Welcome to Chechnya. Most of my predicted five are shaky, but if Tenet doesn’t land here, I’m assuming that Warner Bros. actively called up Academy members and begged them not to vote for it.
That’s a wrap on our predictions; after the nominations are announced on Monday, we’ll be back with further analysis.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.