Oscars 2020: The Odds and Ends

It’s mid-April, and this year’s Oscars still haven’t been held yet, which raises two questions: What is time, and what is Time? I’m not a capable enough philosopher to answer the first, but I can tell you that the second is one of the five nominees for this year’s Best Documentary Feature award. And so, even with the COVID-19 pandemic wreaking havoc on the cinematic landscape and the Academy’s schedule, it’s (ahem) time for everyone’s favorite time (oh come on) of year: our annual Oscar predictions.

You know how this works. Over the next week, I’ll be filing a series of pieces that briskly walk through each of the 21 20 feature categories (sorry, short subjects, I care for thee not), with predictions, preferences, and assorted thoughts. Does any of this matter? That’s up to you. The Oscars are a gaudy ceremony of self-congratulation, often better remembered for what they got wrong than right. They’re also significant as a marker of history, and they tend to honor some pretty good movies. There are more important things in the world, and more important things to complain about, too.

Today, we’re running through seven categories that are rather less high-profile than other races. But if you want to win your office pool (do people do office pools for the Oscars? Do people still work in offices?), this is where you can separate yourself.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

NOMINEES
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

WILL WIN
Don’t overthink this one. Sure, Wolfwalkers has its fierce admirers, and Aardman acolytes will go to bat for Shaun the Sheep. But Pixar routinely dominates this category, racking up 10 total wins, with only one loss in the past decade (in 2018, when Incredibles 2 fell to Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse). And while multiple nominations theoretically presents the danger of a split vote, nobody seems to consider Onward a serious contender. Soul takes it.

SHOULD WIN
I’ve yet to see Over the Moon, but otherwise, this is an unusually strong field, flashing lots of cinematic intelligence while keeping the kiddie pandering to a minimum. [Update: I have now seen Over the Moon; it’s beautifully animated, but its writing and music are less than stellar.] Onward is a lesser Pixar picture, but it’s still a sturdy adventure tale with a deeply moving final act; Farmageddon showcases impressive comic versatility without dialogue; and Wolfwalkers is a gorgeous hand-drawn effort with solid themes. Still, Soul is a comfortable cut above the rest, combining magnificent pictorial detail with a sterling script and genuinely complex ideas. It’s not a terrific animated movie; it’s just a terrific movie.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

NOMINEES
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
Pinocchio

WILL WIN
You can throw out Pinocchio, because I’m not convinced that movie exists. (It apparently stars Roberto Benigni, but you can’t fool me, that one already came out ages ago.) The guild is only marginally helpful because they split things into three subcategories (contemporary, period, and fantasy), meaning Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Mulan both claimed victory there. But Ma Rainey did defeat both Emma and Mank at the guild, plus it won at the BAFTAs, so it’s the favorite here.

And yet! There’s just something very Oscar-y about Emma’s classical threads. Perhaps I’m being guided by my heart rather than my head—my enthusiasm for Autumn de Wilde’s adaptation of the beloved Jane Austen novel is, to put it mildly, considerable—but I like its chances to pull an upset. Besides, doesn’t “Academy Award-winning Emma” just sound right?

SHOULD WIN
I dare say!

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Ammonite
Beanpole
Emma
Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
I Care a Lot

Ammonite and Beanpole both prominently feature stunning green dresses, and that’s grounds for an automatic nomination ’round these parts. “Stunning” doesn’t even begin to describe Emma’s wardrobe, which dazzles the eyes even as it quietly deepens its characterizations. Eurovision frequently falters in its quest for transcendent silliness, but its wardrobe slyly accentuates its heedless absurdity. And while this category will always trend toward period pieces, I Care a Lot warrants recognition for how its sleek power suits and bold colors emphasize its characters’ predatory tendencies.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Emma.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

NOMINEES
Collective
Crip Camp
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Time

WILL WIN
As usual, I’m flying blind here (my fault, documentary genre, not yours). Critics seem to have coalesced around either Time or Collective, while My Octopus Teacher is currently the bettors’ favorite. Nothing seems to have gathered any true momentum, so I’ll go with Collective, given that it’s topical; the subject matter involves a free press uncovering governmental corruption.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

NOMINEES
Another Round (Denmark)
Better Days (Hong Kong)
Collective (Romania)
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

WILL WIN
Given that its director received his own nomination, Another Round is a virtual shoo-in here.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Another Round (Denmark)
Beanpole (Russia)
Les Misérables (France)
The Painted Bird (Czech Republic)
A Sun (Taiwan)

Another Round features a rather dubious premise, but it’s executed extraordinarily well, with a terrific performance from Mads Mikkelsen. Beanpole is a gut punch. Les Misérables—which was actually nominated in this category last year, thanks to the Academy’s twisted eligibility rules—is a rigorous and powerful study of the policing and the policed. Those three movies are all wrenching to various degrees, but The Painted Bird makes them look like comedies; thankfully, it’s a work of exceptional craft as well as a grueling piece of miserabilism. A Sun is one of the year’s most woefully overlooked films, a beautiful and sweeping depiction of clenched pride and familial love. (Note that I go by U.S. release date, meaning Quo Vadis, Aida—which came out in March 2021, outside even this year’s expanded eligibility window—will be eligible for my 2021 ballot.)

MovieManifesto’s winner: Beanpole.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

NOMINEES
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio

WILL WIN
I won’t get greedy. As much as I’d love to see Emma scoop this one as well, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom won at the guild, and Viola Davis’ heavy blush is front and center throughout the film. It’s the safe pick. But if you’re looking for an upset, I can’t entirely rule out Hillbilly Elegy, given its strenuous efforts to disguise Glenn Close.

SHOULD WIN
I mean, look at this:

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

NOMINEES
“Fight for You”—D’Mile, H.E.R., and Tiara Thomas (from Judas and the Black Messiah)
“Hear My Voice”—Daniel Pemberton and Celeste (from The Trial of the Chicago 7)
“Husavik”—Rickard Göransson, Fat Max Gsus, and Savan Kotecha (from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)
“Io sì (Seen)”—Diane Warren and Laura Pausini (from The Life Ahead)
“Speak Now”—Sam Ashworth and Leslie Odom Jr. (from One Night in Miami)

WILL WIN
This is Diane Warren’s fourth consecutive nomination, sixth in the last seven years, and 12th overall. She’s still never won. She makes the ’90s Buffalo Bills look like John Wooden’s UCLA dynasty. You can’t rule out a sympathy vote for her here, but the smart money is on “Speak Now”, which supplies a resonant message in the voice of a Tony winner.

SHOULD WIN
There are rumbling from certain corners of the internet that the Academy should have nominated “Jaja Ding Dong” from Eurovision instead of “Husavik”. This is outrageous. “Jaja Ding Dong” is a cute and intentionally stupid song; “Husavik” is the movie’s shockingly affecting emotional apex. Rachel McAdams plus Sigur Rós equals majesty.

BEST SOUND

NOMINEES
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal

WILL WIN
This is arguably the safest pick of the night. Sound of Metal in a walk.

SHOULD WIN
And rightly so. Darius Marder’s drama is very much about sound—how we process it, how its presence and absence affect us—and it brilliantly creates an intricate sonic landscape that effortlessly pulls you inside its wrenching story.

Five more categories coming tomorrow!