Oscars 2021: The Screenplays

Hey, you wanted intrigue at the Oscars? How about not one but two screenplay races where the winner remains legitimately uncertain? Let’s get to it.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
Belfast—Kenneth Branagh
Don’t Look Up—Adam McKay
King Richard—Zach Baylin
Licorice Pizza—Paul Thomas Anderson
The Worst Person in the World—Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt

WILL WIN
Uh oh. For awhile, this was looking like Licorice Pizza’s race to lose, with Belfast lurking as a potential spoiler. But then Don’t Look Up won at the Writers Guild, and I’m starting to get nervous. Now, remember, the guilds are hardly foolproof as prognosticators; it’s a completely different voting body, and unlike with Oscar nominations (which are branch-specific), when it comes to the actual winners, every Academy member gets to vote in every category. Still, this is the same Academy that, all of two years ago, gave an Oscar to the screenplay for Jojo Rabbit (over Little Women!). And much like the highly visible satire of that film, the script for Don’t Look Up is… well, it’s noticeable. And I think that’s enough to give it the edge. And why not? Haven’t you heard? We’re all fucking doomed anyway.

SHOULD WIN
This is virtually a toss-up for me between Licorice Pizza and The Worst Person in the World. As much as I admire the heartfelt shagginess of Anderson’s screenplay, I’ll go with the latter; it’s an impressive, literary script whose chapter-based approach adds some real kick to its heroine’s long, messy journey through life.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
The French Dispatch—Wes Anderson
A Hero—Asghar Farhadi
Nine Days—Edson Oda
Undine—Christian Petzold
The Worst Person in the World—Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt

Speaking of literary, The French Dispatch is practically a New Yorker article, but it hums with humor and invention. A Hero is a characteristically knotty work from Farhadi, one that continually reveals new layers surrounding its flawed, empathetic underbelly. Nine Days owes an obvious debt to Hirokazu Koreeda’s After Life, but it makes its high concept its own, charging it with gravity and imagination. Undine is gripping for the way it twists melodramatic tropes into a thrillingly unpredictable mythological journey.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Nine Days—Edson Oda.

Honorable mention: Red Rocket—Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
CODA—Siân Heder
Drive My Car—Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe
Dune—Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth
The Lost Daughter—Maggie Gyllenhaal
The Power of the Dog—Jane Campion

WILL WIN
This would seem to be a microcosm of the rapidly emerging Best Picture duel between CODA and The Power of the Dog, though I wouldn’t entirely discount The Lost Daughter. That aside, does this category necessarily align with Best Picture? I wouldn’t be so sure. The poetic sweep and visual grandeur of The Power of the Dog make it a formidable threat for the top prize, but voters tend to focus on dialogue here. I think that gives CODA a slight edge.

SHOULD WIN
I’m always hesitant to declare my preferences too eagerly in this category, which depends heavily on writers’ ability to adapt their source material (which I’m rarely familiar with). But on pure merit alone, I’ll take The Power of the Dog by a hair over Drive My Car; both are patient and elegantly constructed, allowing their stories to accumulate momentum as they steadily progress toward their powerful conclusions.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Drive My Car—Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe
I’m Your Man—Jan Schomburg and Maria Schrader
The Last Duel—Nicole Holofcener, Ben Affleck, and Matt Damon
The Power of the Dog—Jane Campion
West Side Story—Tony Kushner

I’m Your Man is a spry, spiky dramedy that exhibits some keen insights into the chaos of modern relationships. My understanding of The Last Duel’s original book is that it’s a rigorously researched presentation of historical events; the script boldly subverts that academic rigor, ingeniously wielding point of view to depict not different events but different positions of power and entitlement. West Side Story adds just the right touch of modern, immigration-tinged resonance to its classic tale of factional warfare.

MovieManifesto’s winner: The Last Duel—Nicole Holofcener, Ben Affleck, and Matt Damon.

Coming tomorrow: the lead actors.