Best Adapted Screenplay

We’re moving right along in our analysis of this year’s Oscars. Having previously weighed in on the supporting actors, plus various below-the-line categories, it’s time to wrestle with the world’s dumbest profession: writing. People get paid to do this? Seems absurd.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
A Complete Unknown—Jay Cocks and James Mangold
Conclave—Peter Straughan
Emilia Pérez—Jacques Audiard
Nickel Boys—RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
Sing Sing—Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, and John “Divine G” Whitfield

WILL WIN
Conclave. No multiple rounds of voting required. Read More

Look out, we’ve got some races! Most of the high-profile categories at this year’s Oscars are open and shut, draining any suspense from the announcement of the winners. But the screenplay fields are (har har) a different story. Both races are legitimately competitive, requiring a delicate combination of mathematical analysis and historical intuition. Or you can just guess.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
American Fiction—Cord Jefferson
Barbie—Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
Oppenheimer—Christopher Nolan
Poor Things—Tony McNamara
The Zone of Interest—Jonathan Glazer Read More

Our Oscars analysis marches on! Earlier today, we looked at the supporting actors; before that, we analyzed the techies. Now, it’s time to consider the writers.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
The Banshees of Inisherin—Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once—Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans—Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner
Tár—Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness—Ruben Östlund

WILL WIN
So just how many Oscars is Everything Everywhere All at Once going to win? It received 11 nominations (two in one category), but realistic estimates can range anywhere from 3 to 8. (I personally have it pegged for six.) The breadth of its reach will likely determine this category, where it’s engaged (at least in my eyes) in a head-to-head competition against The Banshees of Inisherin. In a vacuum, I’d lean slightly toward Banshees, simply because it’s the more writerly conceit. But Everything Everywhere’s restless imagination might also catch voters’ attention, and besides, this race isn’t taking place in a vacuum; both of these movies received plenty of nominations, but only one is a juggernaut. I’m picking Everything Everywhere. Read More

Hey, you wanted intrigue at the Oscars? How about not one but two screenplay races where the winner remains legitimately uncertain? Let’s get to it.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
Belfast—Kenneth Branagh
Don’t Look Up—Adam McKay
King Richard—Zach Baylin
Licorice Pizza—Paul Thomas Anderson
The Worst Person in the World—Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt Read More

Almost done! Thus far in our weeklong run-up to the Oscars, we’ve looked at the lead actors, their supporting counterparts, the big techies, and the little ones. This morning, we’re analyzing the screenplays before we return this afternoon for a look at the big prizes.

Let’s start with the weaker of the two categories:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

NOMINEES
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm—Sacha Baron Cohen et al.
The Father—Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
Nomadland—Chloé Zhao
One Night in Miami—Kemp Powers
The White Tiger—Ramin Bahrani Read More