Oscars 2021: The Supporting Actors

There are quite a few competitive races at this year’s Oscars, including several in categories we’ve previously analyzed. They do not include the races for the supporting actors, which are virtually written in stone at this point. But who cares? After all, the whole point of this annual exercise isn’t to predict the winners but to officially log my own choices so that years from now, I can issue boastful statements like, “Sure, you all like Anya Taylor-Joy now that she’s earned her third Oscar nomination of the 2020s, but how many of you put her on your ballot in 2018 for Thoroughbreds??”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

NOMINEES
Jessie Buckley—The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose—West Side Story
Judi Dench—Belfast
Kirsten Dunst—The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis—King Richard

WILL WIN
DeBose. It’s foolish to put too much weight on precursor awards, but when the same actor wins at the Screen Actors Guild, the Golden Globes, and the BAFTAs, then it’s even more foolish to pick someone else. This race is as close to a lock as these things get.

SHOULD WIN
This is a respectable group of solid performances, only one of which cracks my own ballot. That’s why there’s no such thing as a snub; there are too many good actors and not enough spots to reward them. (Whenever an aggrieved reader asks me, “How could you possibly leave off [Actor X who gave a perfectly good performance]?” my answer is invariably, “Easily.”) Anyway, while I appreciate the Academy honoring Buckley—who delivers the kind of prickly supporting turn that rarely receives recognition—I’ll side with the voters and take DeBose, who brilliantly infuses a classic character with complementary glimmers of defiance, terror, anguish, and joy.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Ariana DeBose—West Side Story
Riley Keough—Zola
Florence Pugh—Black Widow
Suzanna Son—Red Rocket
Anya Taylor-Joy—Last Night in Soho

Keough positively crackles with anarchic energy. Pugh reminds us that the MCU is really a comedy factory, and Black Widow is never better than when she and Scarlett Johansson are engaging in sisterly sparring. Son creates a fascinating contradiction, a coquettish naïf who’s also assertive and worldly. Taylor-Joy is arguably a co-lead in Last Night in Soho, but given how thrillingly she illustrates the rot festering beneath a fantasy of stardom (and how crowded my ballot is for Best Actress), I’m comfortable cheating and slotting her in here.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Riley Keough—Zola.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Cate Blanchett—Nightmare Alley
Kirsten Dunst—The Power of the Dog
Gaby Hoffmann—C’mon C’mon
Thomasin McKenzie—Old
Mia Wasikowska—Bergman Island

Blanchett radiates glamour, helping Nightmare Alley achieve its lurid kick. Dunst is pure heartbreak. Hoffmann rounds out an archetype (the helpless single mom) with exquisite detail and nuance. McKenzie is achingly vulnerable. Wasikowska is so naturally magnetic, she practically ruins the movie, which should be entirely about her.

Honorable mention: Ana de Armas—No Time to Die; Polly Draper—Shiva Baby; Margot Robbie—The Suicide Squad; Lilou Siauvaud—Stillwater; Tilda Swinton—The French Dispatch.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

NOMINEES
Ciarán Hinds—Belfast
Troy Kotsur—CODA
Jesse Plemons—The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons—Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee—The Power of the Dog

WILL WIN
This one isn’t quite as locked down as Supporting Actress; it’s possible that Smit-McPhee could rope his way (sorry) back into the race. But The Power of the Dog is arguably losing steam as an Oscar contender (more on that come Friday), while CODA is barreling ahead with considerable momentum. That makes this category Kotsur’s to lose.

SHOULD WIN
Good performances, all! Nominees who made my own ballot, none! Lotta good actors out there, folks! I’d honestly be fine with anyone from this group winning other than Simmons; I like Being the Ricardos more than most (though I consider it a step down from Aaron Sorkin’s last picture), but he’s mostly on autopilot. Forced to choose, I’ll take Smit-McPhee, whose dexterous performance initially scans as nigh-parody of limp-wristed helplessness, only to gradually emerge as something more angular and disturbing. Tricky stuff, that.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT
Ben Affleck—The Last Duel
Adrien Brody—The French Dispatch
Mike Faist—West Side Story
David Harbour—Black Widow
Vincent Lindon—Titane

Affleck is marvelously capricious, with just a pinch of decency lingering beneath the whimsy. Brody is delightfully overmatched. Faist channels his anxious energy with lethal purpose. Harbour has the time of his life. Lindon takes a demented melodrama and gives it a soul.

MovieManifesto’s winner: Vincent Lindon—Titane.

MOVIEMANIFESTO’S BALLOT: SECOND TIER
Bradley Cooper—Licorice Pizza
Benicio del Toro—The French Dispatch
Toby Huss—Copshop
Barry Keoghan—The Green Knight
Jared Leto—House of Gucci

Cooper pops off the screen. Del Toro is hilariously brutish and stealthily sweet. Huss is pure, unhinged delirium. I never know if Keoghan is actually acting. I very much know when Leto is acting, but his outré flourishes are exactly what House of Gucci needs.

Honorable mention: Jamie Dornan for Belfast, which is really a nomination for his spectacular work in Barb & Star Go to Vista del Mar, except that movie was released in February 2021, which means it’s technically ineligible for this year’s Oscars, only I didn’t see it until May (and thus couldn’t consider it for my ballot last year), and Dornan is so fucking wonderful in it, seriously just watch this:

Coming later today: the screenplays.