This year’s Oscar nominations were pretty good, except for the ones that were terrible. Or maybe it’s the other way around. As is always the case, it’s hard for me to get too fired up about the Academy’s selections, even if I inevitably feel a twinge of disappointment when one of my favorite films gets ignored (fare thee well, Challengers) or a rush of euphoria when another gets recognized (Coralie Fargeat, allez!). That’s how this is supposed to work: The snubs omissions go hand in hand with the surprises, resulting in an overall slate that’s flawed, messy, and interesting.
So while acknowledging that the Oscars remain perfectly imperfect, let’s run through the nominees in each of the 14 feature categories that I previously predicted (quite poorly, in some cases), along with some quickie analysis of where things currently stand:
BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
WickedA Real Pain I’m Still HereSeptember 5 Nickel BoysSing Sing The Substance
Analysis: Last year, I went 10-for-10 in this category. This time around, not so much. The big story of the day is the tremendous overall performance of The Substance, which showed up not just here but also in three other above-the-line areas (plus Best Makeup, obviously). Beyond that, the appearance of Nickel Boys isn’t a huge surprise, but I’m Still Here is a legitimate shock; I’d assumed it was merely a marginal contender for Best Actress. Maybe now the studio will let me see the movie!
Current favorite: At this point I’d still lean toward The Brutalist, but it’s really anyone’s game at this point: Anora is beloved, Emilia Pérez lapped the field with 13 total nominations (one shy of the record!), and even A Compete Unknown might be gaining momentum after its strong overall showing. Stay tuned.
Glaring omission: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. We don’t use the word “snubbed” around these parts, but it’s still a pity that the Academy couldn’t find room for 2024’s grandest and most magnificent motion picture.
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard—Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker—Anora
Brady Corbet—The BrutalistEdward Berger—Conclave Coralie Fargeat—The SubstanceJon M. Chu—Wicked James Mangold—A Complete Unknown
Analysis: Sacrebleu! I was all set to bemoan the Academy for failing to appreciate the supple filmmaking that Fargeat brought to The Substance, yet voilà, here she is! The Oscars are great! (As for Mangold, whatever.)
Current favorite: Corbet. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t take home the top prize, it’s the kind of maximalist effort that voters are sure to honor in this category.
Glaring omission: Luca Guadagnino—Challengers. The sports movie has rarely felt so exciting, so alive, as in Guadagnino’s highly stylized melodrama.
BEST ACTRESS
Karla Sofía Gascón—Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison—Anora
Demi Moore—The SubstanceMarianne Jean-Baptiste—Hard Truths Cynthia Erivo—WickedNicole Kidman—Babygirl Fernanda Torres—I’m Still Here
Analysis: This was always going to be a competitive race. For everyone screeching that Jean-Baptiste was egregiously neglected, just remember that there are a lot of talented actors out there and only five can get nominated, also I agree with you.
Current favorite: Moore, I guess? Madison could win here, but I think that Anora would also need to triumph in Best Picture for that to happen.
Glaring omission: Saoirse Ronan—The Outrun. Good actor, Saoirse Ronan. Talented.
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody—The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet—A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo—Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes—Conclave
Sebastian Stan—The Apprentice
Analysis: Hey, look, no red! Definitely a sign of my consummate skill and not just total randomness.
Current favorite: Probably a toss-up between Brody and Chalamet.
Glaring omission: Josh Hartnett—Trap. It’s easy to say “Oh the Oscars just ignore horror,” but look at the success of The Substance and then tell me why Hartnett’s serpentine charm in Trap wasn’t also Academy-worthy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov—Anora
Kieran Culkin—A Real Pain
Edward Norton—A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce—The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong—The Apprentice
Analysis: What can I say, I’m just really good at predicting the male acting categories and only the male acting categories.
Current favorite: Culkin. I’m hearing rumblings that his frontrunner status is less secure because A Real Pain didn’t show up in Best Picture. Not buying it.
Glaring omission: Denzel Washington—Gladiator II. It’s not like he needs any more trophies, but Washington elevated Ridley Scott’s choppy sequel with intelligence and élan.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro—A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande—Wicked
Felicity Jones—The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini—Conclave
Zoe Saldaña—Emilia Pérez
Analysis: Hang on, am I secretly amazing at this?
Current favorite: Oddsmakers seem to be favoring Saldaña, but I’m not ruling out Grande. We’ll see!
Glaring omission: Emily Watson—Small Things Like These. The term “supporting” has grown increasingly dubious over the years; it’d be nice if the Academy returned to honoring performances like Watson’s, who makes a devastating impact in just a handful of minutes.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora—Sean Baker
The Brutalist—Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
A Real Pain—Jesse Eisenberg
September 5—Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, and Alex DavidHard Truths—Mike Leigh The Substance—Coralie Fargeat
Analysis: And we’re back to being bad. It’s very funny to me that Fargeat’s wildly unsubtle screenplay showed up here, but I can hardly complain about excessive recognition for a movie as exceptionally bugfuck as The Substance.
Current favorite. Anora. I’m not convinced that Baker’s latest marvel will perform well overall, but this seems like the area where voters are most likely to reward it, especially given that it’s so dialogue-driven.
Glaring omission: Juror #2—Jonathan Abrams. I suppose that the complete shutout of Clint Eastwood’s gripping drama is exactly what Warner Bros. deserved, but that doesn’t make the film’s elegant construction any less impressive.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown—Jay Cocks and James Mangold
Conclave—Peter Straughan
Emilia Pérez—Jacques Audiard
Sing Sing—Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, and John “Divine G” WhitfieldWicked—Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox Nickel Boys—RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
Analysis: Sure, maybe it’s a bit odd that Nickel Boys showed up here and not in Best Cinematography, but remember that each branch votes individually.
Current favorite: I have no idea. Maybe Emilia Pérez for its sheer bravado?
Glaring omission: Nosferatu—Robert Eggers. Yes, this exquisite horror movie scored four below-the-line mentions, but its silky, flavorful writing deserved recognition as well.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist—Lol Crawley
Dune: Part Two—Greig Fraser
Emilia Pérez—Paul Guilhaume
Nosferatu—Jarin BlaschkeConclave—Stéphane Fontaine Maria—Ed Lachman
Analysis: This branch sure does like Lachman, huh? Whatever.
Current favorite: The Brutalist.
Glaring omission: Nickel Boys—Jomo Fray. I can’t quite join the chorus of shouts decrying the illogic of Nickel Boys crashing the Best Picture lineup but not showing up here—that’s what happens when one category comprises 10 nominees and the other has just five—but its bravura shooting style is quite something to behold.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown—Arianne Phillips
Conclave—Lisy Christl
Nosferatu—Linda Muir
Wicked—Paul TazewellBlitz—Jacqueline Durran Gladiator II—Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
Analysis: Blitz is a flawed movie, but its total no-show at the Oscars is kind of a bummer; it’s a work of lavish, lapidary craft.
Current favorite: Wicked, I imagine.
Glaring omission: Lisa Frankenstein—Meagan McLaughlin. I’m confused. Like, did you not see her hat?
BEST FILM EDITING
Conclave—Nick Emerson
Emilia Pérez—Juliette Welfling
Wicked—Myron KersteinA Complete Unknown—Andrew Buckland Anora—Sean BakerDune: Part Two—Joe Walker The Brutalist—David Jancso
Analysis: Starting to think I shouldn’t get paid for this. (For the record, my total prediction tally was 59 of 75, good for 79%. Not great!)
Current favorite: I’d probably lean Emilia Pérez, but I’m not ruling anything out.
Glaring omission: Blink Twice—Kathryn J. Schubert. Zoë Kravitz’s socially conscious thriller has its problems, but its deceptively fluid editing helps amp up its suspense.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist—Daniel Blumberg
Conclave—Volker Bertelmann
Emilia Pérez—Clément Ducol and Camille
The Wild Robot—Kris BowersChallengers—Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross Wicked—John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
Analysis: Boo! Boooooo!
Current favorite: The Brutalist, unless voters want to throw a bone to Conclave.
Glaring omission: Challengers—Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. Honestly, this is the only omission of the whole slate that makes me genuinely angry. Which is admittedly silly, but come on!
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist—Judy Becker
Conclave— Suzie Davies
Dune: Part Two—Patrice Vermette
Wicked— Nathan CrowleyBlitz—Adam Stockhausen Nosferatu—Craig Lathrop
Analysis: Neat, more Nosferatu!
Current favorite: Either Wicked or The Brutalist.
Glaring omission: I could kvetch about Conclave beating out Blitz here, but honestly this is a pretty solid group.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
WickedTwisters Alien: Romulus
Analysis: Congrats to Alien: Romulus on its nomination for “visual effects that inspired the greatest level of foaming-at-the-mouth outrage.”
Current favorite: Can an Apes movie just win one of these things already?
That’s all for now. We’ll be back the week of the show for more detailed breakdowns of each category.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.