The Oscars are good because they’re bad. If the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences exclusively bestowed trophies on the best movies, actors, and artisans, they would instantly become irrelevant—because nobody would have anything to complain about. It is the job of this institution to be wrong, to frustrate and antagonize, to create grist for the online mill of campaigning and caterwauling. What other ceremony could inspire such crazed rhetoric, like people clamoring that Emma Stone’s win last year for Poor Things was illegitimate because it came at the expense of Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon? The internet feeds on outrage, and the Oscars foment fury with annual, reliable precision.
They also, as it happens, tend to nominate pretty good movies. My own ballots rarely overlap with those of the Academy, but that’s less a function of incompetence than excess; there are simply too many good options for everyone to agree on the same subset of five (or, in the case of Best Picture, 10). The Oscars don’t matter in the same way that MVP awards in sports don’t matter—the token recognition doesn’t change the underlying performance—but they nevertheless shine a light on pictures which mainstream audiences might otherwise ignore. For that reason alone, they’re worth paying attention to, if not obsessing over.
And so, per tradition, we’re forecasting the nominees in 14 feature categories for this year’s Academy Awards, which will be announced tomorrow morning. (What about the other six feature categories and the three shorts, you ask? I don’t care, I reply.) Remember that these guesses are the product of painstaking research and industry knowledge and definitely aren’t just a smattering of random picks that I cooked up by glancing at a few websites.
BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
A Real Pain
September 5
Sing Sing
Wicked
Thoughts: Six of these—Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked—are virtual locks. It’s possible that A Real Pain is too small-scale to land, but it seems to have remained in the conversation over the past few months. On the flip side, the colossal Dune 2 came out way back in March, which may have diminished its chances, but I still think its populist appeal and muscular craftsmanship will carry it through. I’m less confident in September 5, partly because I haven’t seen it yet—seriously Paramount, feel free to expand its platform release at any time—but it sounds like the kind of Serious Film that would flatter voters’ sensibilities. Sing Sing missed at the Producers Guild, but my spidey sense suggests it’ll find a way.
Potential upsets: The obvious interloper is The Substance, which scored at the Producers Guild and is still riding a wave of buzz following Demi Moore’s win and speech at the Golden Globes; I’m just skeptical that such an outré work can find purchase in the tasteful Academy. There’s also Nickel Boys, which has received rave reviews but is currently languishing at the box office.
Longshots: I’m Still Here (won for Best Actress at the Globes, but has anyone seen it?); All We Imagine as Light (I’m starting to take these limited releases personally); Challengers (come on!); Juror #2 (fuck you Zaslav).
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard—Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker—Anora
Edward Berger—Conclave
Jon M. Chu—Wicked
Brady Corbet—The Brutalist
Thoughts: Baker and Corbet are in. Berger missed here two years ago for All Quiet on the Western Front, but I’m guessing he’ll fare well given the international-skewing directors’ branch—same for Audiard. Chu is my wildcard, but Wicked is a robust and buoyant production, so I think he’ll sneak in.
Potential upsets: James Mangold landed at the Directors Guild for A Complete Unknown, so he’s the obvious pick. Dune 2 is an even grander movie than Wicked, but its predecessor didn’t show up here in 2021, so I don’t love Denis Villeneuve’s odds.
Longshots: RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys? Payal Kapadia for All We Imagine as Light? Clint Eastwood for that really good movie which Warner Bros. wouldn’t let you see in theaters?
BEST ACTRESS
Karla Sofía Gascón—Emilia Pérez
Marianne Jean-Baptiste—Hard Truths
Nicole Kidman—Babygirl
Mikey Madison—Anora
Demi Moore—The Substance
Thoughts: Good fucking luck. Moore is in, and I’m reasonably convinced on Madison, but beyond that, who the hell knows.
Potential upsets: Cynthia Erivo for Wicked is probably a safer pick than Kidman; her only problem is that the Academy loves Nicole Kidman. Pamela Anderson showed up at the Screen Actors Guild for The Last Showgirl, but her buzz seems to have died. That can’t be said for Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here; I just wonder if she’s coming on too late. A crapshoot, how exciting!
Longshots: Angelina Jolie for Maria (remember when she was a sure thing?); Kate Winslet for Lee (victimized by virtue of being awesome all the time); Tilda Swinton for The Room Next Door (no studios please by all means keep preventing me from watching movies); Saoirse Ronan for The Outrun (sobs).
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody—The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet—A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo—Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes—Conclave
Sebastian Stan—The Apprentice
Thoughts: Four of these are rock-solid. The Apprentice barely made a blip upon its release, but Stan seems to have developed some momentum on the circuit.
Potential upsets: Daniel Craig got the SAG nod for Queer, so he can’t be ruled out. Hugh Grant for Heretic would be cool, but I don’t see it happening.
Longshots: Er… Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain? Sebastian Stan (again) for A Different Man? Glen Powell for Hit Man???
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov—Anora
Kieran Culkin—A Real Pain
Edward Norton—A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce—The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong—The Apprentice
Thoughts: Strong is the only one I’m not completely confident in here, but he’s shown up throughout the precursors (SAG, Golden Globes, BAFTAs), so I think he’s in.
Potential upsets: Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing.
Longshots: This feels like a six-man race for five spots, but I suppose that’s why we’re talking about longshots, so… Stanley Tucci for Conclave? Denzel Washington for Gladiator II? One of the 18 other fantastic dudes from Anora?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro—A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande—Wicked
Felicity Jones—The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini—Conclave
Zoe Saldaña—Emilia Pérez
Thoughts: Weirdly thin field here. Grande is winning this in a walk (it helps that she’s a lead), unless she faces a surge from Saldaña (who’s also a lead), so you can probably just ignore the rest.
Potential upsets: Selena Gomez could add to Emilia Pérez’s mighty nomination total here. Jamie Lee Curtis landed at SAG for The Last Showgirl, but I’m not convinced anyone has seen that movie.
Longshots: Margaret Qualley for The Substance (think of all the potential jokes!); Danielle Deadwyler for The Piano Lesson (a real movie that I totally didn’t forget existed).
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora—Sean Baker
The Brutalist—Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
Hard Truths—Mike Leigh
A Real Pain—Jesse Eisenberg
September 5—Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, and Alex David
Thoughts: Anora, The Brutalist, and A Real Pain are all on solid footing here. The other two are major question marks, but September 5 has that potential Best Picture nomination in tow, and as for Hard Truths, Mike Leigh is a legend.
Potential upsets: The Substance, I guess?
Longshots: Pick an original screenplay from the batch, your guess is better than mine.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown—Jay Cocks and James Mangold
Conclave—Peter Straughan
Emilia Pérez—Jacques Audiard
Sing Sing—Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, and John “Divine G” Whitfield
Wicked—Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox
Thoughts: Nothing fancy here—just pick the remaining likely Best Picture nominees (and cross out Dune 2 because, well, it’s an action movie).
Potential upsets: Nickel Boys, maybe?
Longshots: Nah.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist—Lol Crawley
Conclave—Stéphane Fontaine
Dune: Part Two—Greig Fraser
Emilia Pérez—Paul Guilhaume
Nosferatu—Jarin Blaschke
Thoughts: This seems pretty solid, though it’s possible that I’m voting with my heart over my head when it comes to Nosferatu.
Potential upsets: I’m starting to feel like Nickel Boys is going to get either zero nominations or, like, seven. Edward Lachman could show up here for Maria after his appearance last year for El Conde, but is the Academy really going to keep recognizing Pablo Larraín’s forgettable Netflicks?
Longshots: Wicked, I suppose. (Pity about those colors.)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Blitz—Jacqueline Durran
A Complete Unknown—Arianne Phillips
Conclave—Lisy Christl
Nosferatu—Linda Muir
Wicked—Paul Tazewell
Thoughts: I’m just matching the BAFTAs here, even though their lineup is quite boring.
Potential upsets: Pick a period piece.
BEST FILM EDITING
A Complete Unknown—Andrew Buckland
Conclave—Nick Emerson
Dune: Part Two—Joe Walker
Emilia Pérez—Juliette Welfling
Wicked—Myron Kerstein
Thoughts: This category has trended increasingly brawny/technical over the years while still favoring Best Picture contenders, so I’m trying to split the difference.
Potential upsets: That means I’m leaving off both Anora (insufficiently showy) and The Brutalist (too long). We’ll see!
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist—Daniel Blumberg
Challengers—Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Conclave—Volker Bertelmann
Emilia Pérez—Clément Ducol and Camille
The Wild Robot—Kris Bowers
Thoughts: If Challengers doesn’t show up here I am calling my congresswoman.
Potential upsets: I’m probably underestimating Wicked, but my suspicion is that voters will chalk up all of its music to the Broadway show.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Blitz—Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales
The Brutalist—Judy Becker
Conclave— Suzie Davies and Roberta Federico
Dune: Part Two— Zsuzsanna Sipos, Shane Vieau, and Patrice Vermette
Wicked— Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales
Thoughts: Blitz is my wildcard here, but damn if that movie doesn’t recreate its period with style and conviction.
Potential upsets: Nosferatu, Gladiator II, and maybe Furiosa (I dunno, would be kinda cool if the Academy recognized one of the year’s best movies in at least one category).
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Twisters
Wicked
Thoughts: As always, the Academy has already whittled this field down to a list of 10 possibilities. Of the five I’m predicting, Twisters is my shakiest bet. Those that could knock it off include Gladiator II (tempting), Alien: Romulus (too evil), Mufasa: The Lion King (too meh), Civil War (huh?), and Deadpool & Wolverine (too schlocky for me to accept it being nominated for any award beyond Biggest Steaming Pile of Fan Service).
That’s all for now. We’ll be back tomorrow for a quick breakdown after the nominations are unveiled, and then we’ll return the week of the show for more detailed analysis.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.