The Oscars are a whipping boy. Despite their ostensible function of celebrating the year’s best movies, their real value lies in what they get wrong—the so-called “snubs,” the head-scratching inclusions, the rhetorical shrieks of “How did they choose him there but not her there??” We like following them because we like kvetching about them.
To that end, the nominations for the 96th Academy Awards did their job in both senses of the phrase. Sure, there were the usual infuriating exclusions (nothing for Asteroid City?!) and puzzling replacements (that sound you just heard was every boomer trying to figure out their Netflix login in order to watch Nyad), plus one genuine shocker (we’ll get to that). But otherwise—and as is usually the case—most of the nominations were, well, pretty good. Sure, no category perfectly aligned with my personal dream ballots (all of which shall be revealed at a later date!), but it’s unrealistic to demand perfection from the Oscars. Besides, if they got everything right, they would have no reason to exist.
Let’s run through the nominations in 14 major categories, with some quickie analysis of my predictions (not terrible!) and vague forecasting (to be further embellished in March):
BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Analysis: Well well well, look who predicted the Best Picture field perfectly. (Was this because it synchronized with the PGA slate? Frankly, I find the question offensive.)
Current favorite: For most of the year, this has been perceived as a two-film race between Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer and Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. I’ve yet to glean any reason this isn’t still the case. As of now, I’d give Oppenheimer the slight edge. (For what it’s worth—and it’s worth very little—it racked up the most nominations overall, with 13.)
Glaring omission: Afire. Christian Petzold’s searing drama never stood a chance with the Academy, but that doesn’t make it any less great.
BEST DIRECTOR
Yorgos Lanthimos—Poor Things
Christopher Nolan—Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese—Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet—Anatomy of a FallAlexander Payne—The Holdovers Jonathan Glazer—The Zone of Interest
Analysis: Twist! The big question for industry prognosticators ahead of this morning’s announcement was whether Greta Gerwig would crack this field for Barbie. I bet against her, wagering that the international lean of the directors’ branch would favor either Triet or Glazer. Turns out it favored both, with Payne also (and more surprisingly) missing the cut.
Current favorite: Nolan. Unlike Scorsese, he’s never won this award, so unless Poor Things develops unexpected momentum, it’s his to lose.
Glaring omission: Celine Song—Past Lives. I can’t complain too bitterly about this, given that Past Lives earned a Best Picture nod, but Song’s invisible, unshakable command of her story is masterful.
BEST ACTRESS
Lily Gladstone—Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller—Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan—Maestro
Emma Stone—Poor ThingsMargot Robbie—Barbie Annette Bening—Nyad
Analysis: I knew Bening had a chance here, but I did not expect her appearance to come at Robbie’s expense.
Current favorite: (Glad)Stone. Sorry. But this is a virtual toss-up between Gladstone and Stone. For now, I’d give the latter the slight edge (despite her prior trophy for La La Land).
Glaring omission: Park Ja-min—Return to Seoul. Remember, there’s no such thing as a snub, and that’s doubly true in the acting categories. Regardless, I don’t know if Park was technically even eligible; I also don’t care, as she embodies one of the most complex and rewarding characters on screen this year.
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper—Maestro
Colman Domingo—Rustin
Paul Giamatti—The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy—Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright—American Fiction
Analysis: No surprises here. Note that three of these five performances are for playing a historical figure, which, well, it’s the Oscars.
Current favorite: Murphy. There was a time when Cooper seemed to be muscling his way toward victory, but that appears to have passed.
Glaring omission: Joaquin Phoenix—Beau Is Afraid. Napoleon scratched out a few nominations in the craft categories, but it was Ari Aster’s weird portrait of anxiety that reminded us of the sheer force of Phoenix’s talent.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt—Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks—The Color Purple
Jodie Foster—Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph—The HoldoversJulianne Moore—May December America Ferrera—Barbie
Analysis: ’Twas a rough morning for critical darling May December, which earned just a single nomination. Ferrera’s emergence here makes Robbie’s whiff for Best Actress all the more mystifying, but then, they’re two different categories.
Current favorite: Randolph. She’s had this in the bag for months.
Glaring omission: Iman Vellani—The Marvels. The Marvel Cinematic Universe may have lost its stranglehold on the box office in 2023, but that didn’t stop Vellani from delivering a nimble and winning comic performance, even within the confines of another dreary superhero flick.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown—American Fiction
Robert Downey Jr.—Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling—Barbie
Mark Ruffalo—Poor ThingsWillem Dafoe—Poor Things Robert De Niro—Killers of the Flower Moon
Analysis: Serves me right for betting against Bobby D.
Current favorite: Probably Downey Jr., though things could always get weird if a different Best Picture candidate starts gaining steam.
Glaring omission: Antoine Reinartz—Anatomy of a Fall. Justine Triet’s intricate courtroom drama performed quite well overall (five nominations), but voters missed an opportunity to honor Reinartz, whose sniveling prosecutor is among the year’s most despicable characters.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall—Justine Triet, Arthur Harari
The Holdovers—David Hemingson
May December—Samy Burch
Past Lives—Celine SongSaltburn—Emerald Fennell Maestro—Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer
Analysis: I vaguely wondered if Saltburn might miraculously crack the Best Picture lineup; instead, it was shut out entirely. That’s probably for the best, though it could have made for some fun awkwardness on Oscar night.
Current favorite: The Holdovers, I guess?
Glaring omission: Theater Camp—Noah Galvin, Molly Gordon, Nick Lieberman, Ben Platt. The year’s pound-for-pound funniest dialogue comedy deserved some recognition from the Academy (predictably, it received none).
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction—Cord Jefferson
Barbie—Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
Oppenheimer—Christopher Nolan
Poor Things—Tony McNamaraKillers of the Flower Moon—Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese The Zone of Interest—Jonathan Glazer
Analysis: And here we have the lone shock of the entire slate: Killers of the Flower Moon missing out on a screenplay nod. I’m skeptical that this signals any meaningful hit to its Best Picture chances, but it’s surprising nonetheless.
Current favorite: It’s easy to just say Oppenheimer, but in a category that rewards flavorful dialogue and visible imagination, I wouldn’t immediately disregard Poor Things or even American Fiction. (Still, it’s probably Oppenheimer.)
Glaring omission: All of Us Strangers—Andrew Haigh. I’m always hesitant to be too bellicose in this category because I’m rarely familiar with the source material, making it difficult to judge the adaptive feat. But All of Us Strangers is an evocative text, suffused with empathy and ambiguity.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Killers of the Flower Moon—Rodrigo Prieto
Maestro—Matthew Libatique
Oppenheimer—Hoyte van Hoytema
Poor Things—Robbie RyanBarbie—Rodrigo Prieto El Conde—Edward Lachman
Analysis: Sorry, Rodrigo Prieto, no double-nom for you. I suppose I should watch El Conde now.
Current favorite: Van Hoytema, I assume? Does Ryan stand a chance here? Shouldn’t I be answering these questions instead of asking them?
Glaring omission: John Wick: Chapter 4—Dan Laustsen. Maybe I’m biased because I rewatched this movie last night, but it is gorgeous, with luminous colors and balletic camerawork.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie—Jacqueline Durran
Killers of the Flower Moon—Jacqueline West
Napoleon—David Crossman, Janty Yates
Oppenheimer—Ellen Mirojnick
Poor Things—Holly Waddington
Analysis: Not bad! Speaking of which, my overall predictions hit on 84% (63 of 75), which is, I dunno, fine? You do better!
Current favorite: Toss-up between Barbie and Poor Things.
Glaring omission: Polite Society—P.C. Williams. I’m drawn to period glamour just as much as the Academy (about which: no Emily??), but it’s gratifying to watch a contemporary film that features such striking wardrobe.
BEST FILM EDITING
The Holdovers—Kevin Tent
Killers of the Flower Moon—Thelma Schoonmaker
Oppenheimer—Jennifer Lame
Poor Things—Yorgos MavropsaridisBarbie—Nick Houy Anatomy of a Fall—Laurent Sénéchal
Analysis: Barbie’s rough-ish day continues. (It did scoop up eight nominations overall, though two were for Best Original Song, a category I steadfastly refuse to care about until the Academy reworks its eligibility rules and restricts nominees to songs that play during the movie itself and not just over the closing credits.)
Current favorite: Oppenheimer. It is going to win a lot of Oscars, which is going to make people hate it, and I believe the appropriate linguistic response in this day and age is that I can’t even.
Glaring omission: How to Blow Up a Pipeline—Daniel Garber. This deceptively complex movie threads together its disparate characters with unassuming elegance.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Killers of the Flower Moon—Robbie Robertson
Oppenheimer—Ludwig Göransson
Poor Things—Jerskin FendrixSociety of the Snow—Michael Giacchino American Fiction—Laura KarpmanSpider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse—Daniel Pemberton Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny—John Williams
Analysis: Alas, the one category where I whiffed on multiple nominees. Good reminder to never bet against John Williams.
Current favorite: Either Oppenheimer or Poor Things.
Glaring omission: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse—Daniel Pemberton. It at least landed in the Best Animated Feature field (where it will presumably lose to The Boy and the Heron), but this brilliant sequel deserved recognition for its vibrant music.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie—Sarah Greenwood
Killers of the Flower Moon—Jack Fisk
Oppenheimer—Ruth De Jong
Poor Things—Shona Heath, James PriceAsteroid City—Adam Stockhausen Napoleon—Arthur Max
Analysis: It’s inaccurate to say that the Academy refuses to embrace Wes Anderson; The Grand Budapest Hotel won four Oscars (and was nominated for another five), and The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar is set to win this year’s trophy for Best Live Action Short. But The French Dispatch didn’t receive a single nomination in 2021, and neither did Asteroid City this year, and that is fucking absurd.
Current favorite: As with Best Costume Design, this is likely a race between Barbie and Poor Things.
Glaring omission: Take a guess.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning, Part OneSociety of the Snow Napoleon
Analysis: Sorry, Society of the Snow, your amazing plane crash needed more cannonballs.
Current favorite: Wait, can The Creator actually win an Oscar? (It deserves to.)
Glaring omission: M3gan. The Academy will always favor large-scale achievement in this category, but everyone’s favorite pint-sized robot doll was delectably creepy and physically persuasive.
That’s all for now. We’ll be back in March with more detailed breakdowns of each category.
Jeremy Beck is the editor-in-chief of MovieManifesto. He watches more movies and television than he probably should.