Oscars

NOMINEES

Slumdog Millionaire – “Jai Ho” (A.R. Rahman, lyrics by Gulzar)

Slumdog Millionaire – “O … Saya” (A.R. Rahman, featuring M.I.A.)

Wall-E – “Down to Earth” (Peter Gabriel, Thomas Newman)

WILL WIN

It’s quite surprising that only three pieces of music received nominations here, since the Best Original Song category has always supplied the Academy an opportunity to feed its own self-indulgence. Every year people complain – usually with cause – about the bloated length of the Oscar telecast, and one of the more obnoxious segments involves the live performances of each nominated work in the Original Song category. So, unlike the Best Visual Effects category, slicing the number of contending songs from five to three may not have been a bad thing. Sure, there have been some enjoyable moments over the past decade – Robin William’s flamboyant rendition of South Park’s “Blame Canada”, Three 6 Mafia’s unadulterated enthusiasm in performing “It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp”, Bjork’s unbelievably horrendous swan dress – but for the most part the live performances are a narcoleptic’s paradise. Read More

Editing may officially be viewed as a technical category, but it’s an important one. Two of a movie’s most important characteristics – namely clarity (can viewers clearly comprehend the on-screen proceedings?) and pace (are those proceedings taking place at a brisk but unhurried clip?) – are directly related to the quality of the editing. Nominations for Best Picture and Best Editing tend to coincide, and with good reason: Editing, like Ron Burgundy, is kind of a big deal.

NOMINEES

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall

The Dark Knight – Lee Smith

Frost/Nixon – Mike Hill, Daniel P. Hanley

Milk – Elliot Graham Slumdog

Millionaire – Chris Dickens

WILL WIN

It’s interesting that this quintet comprises what were the initial favorites for Best Picture going into the nominations, with The Dark Knight replacing The Reader. Since the superhero receives special acknowledgement here, the category seems to be a race between The Dark Knight and Slumdog Millionaire, with the latter acting as the Best Picture frontrunner (at least for the moment). The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is building some overall momentum, but at nearly three hours it’s too long to contend for an editing Oscar, while voters will likely appreciate Frost/Nixon and Milk more for their acting and historical relevance. Read More

After examining the Best Visual Effects field two days ago, it’s time to switch it up to one of the sexier categories and break down Best Supporting Actress. Although frankly I think Best Visual Effects is a more important category, cinematically speaking, but never mind. Let’s get to it.

NOMINEES

Amy Adams – Doubt

Penélope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Viola Davis – Doubt

Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler

WILL WIN

This one was supposed to be easy, only then Harvey Weinstein got involved (yes, again). Not satisfied with landing a Best Picture nomination for The Reader at the expense of rival producer Scott Rudin’s Revolutionary Road, Weinstein bullied voters into nominating Kate Winslet as lead actress for The Reader, which they did at the expense of, that’s right, Revolutionary Road (Winslet had been pegged for a nomination for Rudin’s film in the lead actress category). To be fair, it was the correct call in addition to the politically savvy one, as Winslet is clearly the star of The Reader, no matter how debonair Ralph Fiennes looks. Unfortunately, whereas Best Supporting Actress would have been a gimme had Winslet appeared here, her departure leaves the category completely wide open. Awesome. Read More

To quote Steve Martin in Shopgirl, I suppose the only way to say this is to say it: I won’t be writing the Manifesto this year.

(Hold on, let me give everyone a moment to recover from the shock.)

O.K., let me clarify. Will I still write thousands of words examining this year’s Academy Awards, complete with random sports analogies and Harry Potter references? Of course I will. In fact, through the use of this fancy little blog – created for me by my friend Jamie as a specific result of last year’s Manifesto – I should be able to post commentary on a regular basis over the next few weeks. Indeed, the format will remain similar to the Manifesto of years past: For a given category, I’ll predict the winner (where I’m often wrong), declare which nominee I feel should win (where I’m always right), and highlight a few candidates that weren’t nominated but deserved consideration. So in that respect, nothing has changed. Read More

I’ll be honest: It could have been a lot worse.

I went into the nominations hoping to achieve an 80% success rate with my predictions, a goal my father accurately labeled “audacious”. I wound up at either 68% or 72% (27 or 28 of 40), depending on how you count (the ambiguity is courtesy of Kate Winslet, who complicated things as promised). Sure, I was hoping to do better, but I landed four out of five correct picks in three big categories (picture, director, and actor), plus I swept the Best Adapted Screenplay nods.

Could I have done better? Sure. I knew Best Original Screenplay would be tough, but I didn’t expect to butcher it the way I did, and I entirely misjudged the critical perception of Revolutionary Road. But if you’re expecting me to beat myself up, frankly I’m still more mad at myself for throwing away that inbounds pass in a corporate league basketball game two years ago. (Although frankly, it wasn’t my fault that nobody on the team knew how to set a cross-screen to break a press, but never mind.)

Anyway, here’s a recap as promised. Stay tuned to the blog over the next month, as the Manifesto picks the predicted Oscar winner of each category, as well as my personal preference and my thoughts on those who missed the cut. In the meantime, though, here’s how I did (incorrect predictions struck out in red and replaced with actual nominations): Read More