Oscars

Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War

Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild

Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Will win: As with Best Actor, this one’s easy. Javier Bardem has already compiled 18 other nominations as the plodding, merciless serial killer Anton Chigurh, winning 17 times (his only loss came to Casey Affleck at the Satellite Awards, whatever those are). The only potential obstacle is if voters are afraid he’ll slip into the Killer Voice and terrify the audience with his acceptance speech. I can totally see him limping up to the stage with that creepy smile, then addressing the remaining nominees: “You should admit your situation; there would be more dignity in it.” Yikes. My Buddy Al told me that after watching the trailer for No Country for Old Men one too many times, he starting talking in the Killer Voice and eventually freaked out his entire family as well as himself. I doubt he’s alone. Still, I’ll risk it and take Bardem. Read More

Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There

Ruby Dee, American Gangster

Saoirse Ronan, Atonement

Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone

Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Will win: I’m not even discussing Ruby Dee. I hope her invitation gets lost in the mail. Maybe we can recruit Stifler from American Pie to stop her at the door? “Oscars ceremony? What Oscars ceremony? Try the house down the street.” (And yes, I know she won at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. I’m trying not to think about this.) Read More

Juno – Diablo Cody

Lars and the Real Girl – Nancy Oliver

Michael Clayton – Tony Gilroy

Ratatouille – Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco

The Savages – Tamara Jenkins

Will win: Strange group, huh? Usually the two screenplay categories combine to include the five Best Picture nominees, as well as five more movies that are essentially the second tier of Best Picture nominees – call it the Academy’s way of constructing a Top 10 list. But while the Ratatouille nod makes perfect sense – the movie tells a resolutely original story – I’m baffled by the nominations for Lars and the Real Girl (for which screenplay is its only selection) and The Savages (which also has Laura Linney, but that’s it). If I had to rationalize the Lars and the Real Girl pick, I guess you could argue that its most distinctive quality is its wacky premise, which is obviously screenplay-related. But The Savages? No clue. Regardless, if either of those movies wins, then I’m a huge Lars von Trier fan. Read More

Atonement – Christopher Hampton

Away from Her – Sarah Polley

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly – Ronald Harwood

No Country for Old Men – Ethan Coen, Joel Coen

There Will Be Blood – Paul Thomas Anderson

Will win: Yikes. This one’s a mess. We can eliminate Away from Her without second thought, but the rest are all legitimate contenders. The pitfall here is that a movie’s overall buzz doesn’t necessarily equate to its odds of winning in the screenplay categories. The Academy, believe it or not, actually seems to focus on a movie’s writing when appraising screenplays, rather than just conforming with the Best Picture favorite. This is noble – after all, each individual category is supposed to be evaluated independently, not in a relative context, although that’s rarely the case – but it also makes handicapping more difficult. And yes, I know I’m complaining. Read More

The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford – Roger Deakins

Atonement – Seamus McGarvey

No Country for Old Men – Roger Deakins

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly – Janusz Kaminski

There Will Be Blood – Robert Elswit

Will win: Yikes. And I thought adapted screenplay was tough. Ordinarily I’d go through the list and try to eliminate one nominee at a time, but that won’t work here because absolutely none of them can easily be eliminated. Assassination of Jesse James is a mythic Western with classically gorgeous sunsets and long silhouetted figures. Atonement has The Dunkirk Shot. No Country for Old Men is so elegantly made that every frame seems painstakingly composed. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly has that unique style placing us in its hero’s perspective, plus that amazing scene where Bauby’s eye gets stitched up and it’s almost as if the doctor is stitching up the camera’s lens as well, plus Kaminski is Spielberg’s longtime cinematographer (major currency there). And There Will Be Blood has that flaming oil derrick, its message of greed and corruption and the loss of innocence billowing out across the night sky. Read More